Harris and Trump neck-and-neck in polls with early voting under way

MicroWave@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world – 165 points – Harris and Trump neck-and-neck in polls with early voting under way
theguardian.com

More than 1.4 million have already voted in the presidential election, as battleground state polls show no clear frontrunner

More than 1.4 million people have now voted in the presidential election, as Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continue to crisscross the country in the final stretch of a neck-and-neck campaign.

Their vice-presidential picks, JD Vance and Tim Walz, also faced off this week in the only vice-presidential debate of this cycle. But initial polls suggested voters saw the debate as a draw, without clear impact on the race.

Harris earned her highest national polling average since July, though the presidential race remains extremely close in battleground states, according to the Guardian’s poll tracker. Harris is leading in five of seven swing states, according to the Guardian’s average of high-quality state polls aggregated by the polling analysis platform 538 over the last 10 days. But overall, both candidates continue to have about even odds of winning.

🗳️ Register to vote! https://vote.gov/

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Testament to Plato’s opinion about democracy and how the masses are incapable of governing themselves as they vote with emotion rather than reason.

Trump WILL end democracy in America.

…and they’ll vote him in anyway.

End of story.

Ask me again why I hate people?

hey, I upvoted because I feel you on this, but please don't ignore the impact of concentrated wealth on society. people have felt removed from us politics for decades. this is by design and results in the usual political grift becoming social poison as politicians from all sides mainline that money speedball. no, both "sides" are not the same, but the differences are far too minimal be be called healthy.

and, yes... people can be selfish, ignorant and prejudiced, but the worst of what we are has been weaponized against us since the first proto human claimed divine inspiration - and yet we persist still.

the 1/10 of 1% believe they can own us all in the end and, whether right or wrong, I want to define who the real monster is here - and its usually not the collective "we" in this potential game over moment.

Trump is a greasy former TV host who sweats ketchup and wears diapers.

He pretty much is the personification of America.

I've been thinking that he's the personification of the post war America. The boomer narcissistic generation. And this election is the fight between where we were as a society and where we would like to go .

Granted.. this election isn't going to change our American oligarchs, or corporate ownership, etc.. but social acceptance, personal freedoms and autonomy are very much under fire. And this election is a cross roads where we have to decide who we want to be.

America has a lot of issues. But hopefully we can put a pin in those older ways of thinking.

Trump was memed into office by 4chan the first time. This is not a generational thing we can blame boomers on.

Deluding yourself into thinking that millennials and zoomers can't also be just as fascist is 100% copium.

Deluding yourself into thinking that millennials and zoomers can't also be just as fascist is 100% copium.

Oh I'm not suggesting that this election we are done with the fascists, the racists and the idiots. Unfortunately those are way to baked into human psychology.... We will always have those members of our society.

What I'm hoping is that enough people will say at this point in time, our daughters have bodily autonomy. Kids don't have to worry about food at school. We all have the freedom to choose to be who we want to be. That, January 6 was an isolated event spurred by the ramblings of a man who a large part of society is finally rejecting. And all of those J6ers, are traitors.

I'm suggesting that we want to elect officials that want to keep the department of education. Want to keep NOAA. We want to be members of the greater world.

We want to elect forward looking politicians.

Is that copium? Eh probably. Is that a naive way to look at modern politics? Probably.

But that doesn't mean we have to lose hope.

They didn't even wait for a capable and genuinely talented leader to give up all control over the government to...

They just hand it to the first stupid clown who realizes he can just completely bullshit his way into office and ignore whatever rules he doesn't like.

Their plan basically got activated early, that's all. They had been trying to erode the structure of positive civic engagement since Newt Gingrich, and had been steadily developing this base of angry people for a couple decades. But before they quite got a majority together, this random asshole from reality tv shows up and hijacks the whole thing.

If you think back to the 2016 gop primary, though, they all really hated the guy. But once he had co-opted their movement and installed himself on top with a huge rebranding, they didn't really have a choice but to go along with it. The ratio of Never Trumpers like Liz Cheney to converted MAGAs like Vance is basically an indicator of the percentage that were willing to sell most of their values for this shot at seizing power. About 80% or so.

Only with about 50-75% of the gop base though, depending on region, that was the result of the plan hatching prematurely.

In a sane world, this should not even be a close race. Go and vote you fuckers!

In a sane world, it would literally be a different race, Trump wouldn't be the candidate

Yup, he'd be in jail instead.

You can run for president from in prison! In fact I think that's one of the more important rules intended to curtail political corruption that are still left. Otherwise every republican candidate from now until forever would be looking for an excuse to jail their opponent from the beginning of campaign season.

You cannot, however, run for president after being convicted of treason against the United States.

Why, has he robbed a liquor store, or something? Or did you mean federal prison?

I meant federal prison of course. But hey, maybe he robbed a liquor store as well in the meantime. Who knows with this guy.

The Guardian’s tracker is based on an average of high quality polls over the last 10 days compiled by 538. As of Friday, the forecasting site said the race was essentially a toss-up, with Harris having a 55% chance of winning and Trump having a 45% chance.

Huh?

Also, I'm a firm believer that liberals don't answer phone calls from numbers they don't know and conservatives are the type to send money to Indian call center scammers just because they called.

the methodology isn't good, they should ask if the respondent is a republican or a democrat before asking for whom they intend on voting, they could this way adjust the response rate according to the actual number of voters of each camp and compensate the tendency of the democrats to not answer the phone. /s

a perfectly placed /s is golden. bravo.

liberals don’t answer phone calls from numbers they don’t know

Conservatives don't signal when they are going to vote against their candidate.

Asking pollsters to be mind readers is a bit much, in my book. Besides. How can we count on Conservatives not voting for Trump? In that polling place, with hopes for more Conservative judges, fewer abortions, and more 'Real America', the cagey Conservative can vote for the evil without having to own that vote. I've met plenty of Conservatives who say, "I don't like the guy personally, but I do like my 6-3 court, and Liberals want to take that away from me."

If they vote for us, great! That'll make a marginal victory into a landslide victory, and might push a marginal loss into a solid victory. But we can't count on them. We need to do the work to make sure we get past that 50%+1 margin in at least 270 EVs worth of states and not count on other people to do it. I don't want to wake up Wednesday morning and see that Stein got more votes in the state that we needed to get to 270 than Trump won that state by....

They do use weights and adjustments to deal with this. I don’t know about US polling but in the UK there is a shy conservative factor. People don’t like to say or admit they are conservative, so the polls factor this in. They also factor who answers and responds and try to correct for it.

He lost in 2020 ant there are a lot more Republicans who are going to vote for Kamala Harris this time.

The message here is that you shouldn't count on any of that. Polling has its issues, for sure, and there may very well be a huge win for Harris in unexpected places as Republican voters cross the aisle to deny Trump a seat. Or it may all be a mirage and we're back to leftie voters switching to Third Parties or staying home in enough numbers to give Trump the win. The only way to be sure that we win and Project 2025 and Trump are denied are to turn out as if we're 1% down in the polls. Vote like your vote is the +1 in the 50%+1 that determines who will win. Vote as if every single Republican was going to turn out for Trump and his awful policies. And if you honestly think that we've got this in the bag, vote so that the numbers are crazy. Vote so you can get the landslide.

None of the polls matter except the one that concludes next month, that your State will run. Never forget that.

His attempted fixing of elections are a lot further along this time

Remember Gore had negative votes in some Florida counties