Gaming out Matt Gaetz’s bid to oust Kevin McCarthy

Red0ctober@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world – 130 points –
Gaming out Matt Gaetz’s bid to oust Kevin McCarthy
politico.com

Both Republicans likely need the support of Democrats to prevail in their battle over the speakership. Here’s how that could shake out.

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His plan is simple. Pay some underage girls for sex.

Winning.

Oh come on, cut the guy some slack 🙄

That joke's getting older than the girls he pays for sex.

Starting to get a little too old for him there.

Gaetz has been building up his degeneracy for several years now. I get the feeling his finale is nearer now than it has ever been before. He is a very weird man who does not have the best interests of his constituents in mind. He certainly does not represent our country’s values.

I think Gaetz has realized that Trump is his only possible path to power. With his past misdeeds, running a traditional campaign is a complete no-go for him.

He absolutely needs to leverage that base of insane people who will vote as they're told, no matter what, which Trump has hypnotized.

I suspect that's why he's also trying to copy the looks of one of those crazy televangelists.

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Another nepo fuck who wouldn’t be anywhere near where he is if not for that.

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The other side of the argument is that McCarthy is the GOP’s greatest fundraiser, and getting rid of him would help Democrats take back the House. No replacement for McCarthy would have the same set of relationships and the donor network and political operation.

This is, to me, the winning argument - it hurts them politically, both by taking away their best fundraiser and by replacing him with somebody who's likely to be even more extreme and so do even more dumb things the Democrats can campaign against. A McCarthy replacement is even likely to shut down the government in 45 days than McCarthy is, and for Democrats that's probably a good thing - Republicans screwing up air travel right before Thanksgiving and taking away government employees' paychecks right before Christmas.

Is it good for the country, maybe not, but Republicans losing the House in 2024 will do several orders of magnitude more good for the country than whatever harm might be done by that short-term idiocy.

Historically, when Republicans have shut down the government under a Democratic president, the Democrats get an outsized share of blame. If I were the Dems, I would avoid a shutdown if possible, even just for purely political reasons

As the republicans have veeered more and more into extremism, the veneer has been lifted and they get most of the blame. Their propaganda machine doesn’t work as well when people know it’s propaganda. Obviously the third that live in an alternative reality still blame the dems.

I think that's more a reflection of your specific changing tastes in media/social networks, and not people in general.

Maybe, but if the dems were getting the blame, why fight internally?

Why is he starting to look like Richard Nixon? Is this like that thing with the crab formfactor?

The biggest pocket of votes for Gaetz right off the bat will be the Democrats in the Congressional Progressive Caucus. They hate Gaetz, but more important, it could be suicide for any of the CPC’s 100-plus members to vote to save McCarthy.

Why? Some other Republican will get the role if McCarthy loses it, and McCarthy is relatively moderate by Republican standards. How do progressives benefit from removing him?

There is some reason to dems pushing for McCarthys removal. That said, they're never going to vote for Gaetz or whoever he decides to back. Best case scenario for Gaetz is McCarthy gets ousted and we have gridlock for the next year with no speaker.

It would only take 5 Republican representatives to make Hakeem Jeffries the Speaker. If things keep going sideways within the Republican caucus, one has to wonder if there aren't a handful of moderate Republicans who are sick of the bullshit and support Jeffries. He would still need their votes to pass anything, so they would be incredibly influencial while also sidelining these fools, but the far right would certainly terrorize them

There is no reality in which 5 republicans hand over their majority to a democrat speaker. I’ll put money down. 0% chance lol

If there Republicans were sick of being identified as the party of Nazis, white supremacists, racists, liars, fraudsters, rapists, conspiracy theorists and generally insane people, then the winning move for all of them (except for the above mentioned insane members) would be to collectively vote with the Democrats.

Sure, that would mean handing the House to Democrats, probably losing the House and possibly more in the next elections, and for s number of them it would mean losing their seats - but the alternative is going to be handing the reigns of the entire party over to the Nazis, white supremacists, racists, liars, fraudsters, rapists, conspiracy theorists and generally insane people.

I can name two Republicans in the House for whom any of that was a problem, and they both lost their re-elections. Ironically, one of them was Liz Cheney.

Let’s not mistake my certainty of what they’re doing for approval lol I’m just explaining that it is not happening.

You are much more likely to get 50 (or even 150!) Democratic votes for a moderate Republican than 5 Republican votes for Jeffries....

one has to wonder if there aren’t a handful of moderate Republicans who are sick of the bullshit

There aren't. No wondering about it.

The other side of the argument is that McCarthy is the GOP’s greatest fundraiser, and getting rid of him would help Democrats take back the House. No replacement for McCarthy would have the same set of relationships and the donor network and political operation. In addition, the argument goes, the GOP chaos in the House would pay political dividends.

Removing the lead money maker might be a sound decision. If the Republicans put some cretin like Gaetz in, the money might dry up.

Just like "let Trump win the primaries cuz he can't win against Hillary" tactic?

Surely it wouldn't backfire twice.

I don't think it would ultimately be in the Dems favor to let McCarthy go, especially since they could extract some great concessions from him. He's a snake though, so short leash and a swift end if he goes back on the deal.

Nah, Dems should vote for McCarthy and let the other side play up the narrative that a RINO from California has turned traitor and run to the Dems to keep power. The money will still dry up just as quick, but they'll be able to get what they want from him as well.

The Republicans are not acting like a functioning political party right now.

Having them back in a leadership conference might actually break the party.

The Republicans can clean up their own mess. Democrats will vote present on the motion to vacate. Unless a political promise is made, they'll vote for Congressman Hakeem Jeffries.

Excellent article exploring the many factors involved. Personally, I think that the dems should let the GOP thrash themselves into chaos.