Putin creating conditions to invade NATO-aligned Baltic states, ISW analysis

Hooverx@lemm.ee to World News@lemmy.world – 169 points –
Putin creating conditions to invade NATO-aligned Baltic states, ISW analysis
news.yahoo.com
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"NATO-aligned" they are full fucking NATO members. Why does news suck so hard these days?

Probably bots. If you are part of an alliance, you are probably aligned, but that is not the way English speaking humans would talk.

There are a cases like S. Korea and Japan that aren't NATO members but are allies of US, so in these cases it could be considered. This article, however, is sloppy writing.

They are allies of the US but that doesn't mean they will follow the US's lead into war.

Considering how the Russian Army has performed in Ukraine, I think a few nerf guns should keep the Baltic countries safe.

Yeah but the F-22 hungers for Sukhoi so we gotta let it eat. /s

None of our allies have the F-22 as far as I'm aware. They'd be using the F-35.

Yeah, the Raptor has never been exported to other countries

Quick read on the ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is an American nonprofit research group and think tank

ISW criticized both the Obama and Trump administration policies on the Syrian conflict, advocating a more hawkish approach. In 2013, Kagan called for arms and equipment to be supplied to "moderate" rebels, with the hope that a state "friendly to the United States [would emerge] in the wake of Assad."[9] In 2017, ISW analyst Christopher Kozak praised president Donald Trump for the Shayrat missile strike but advocated further attacks, stating that "deterrence is a persistent condition, not a one hour strike package."[10] In 2018, ISW analyst Jennifer Cafarella published an article calling for the use of offensive military force against the Assad government.[11]

Previous and current members of the ISW's corporate council include Raytheon, Microsoft, Palantir, General Motors, General Dynamics, and Kirkland & Ellis.[14][15][16]

The role of this organization is likely just defending the economic interests of the military-industrial complex. The idea of Russia invading the Baltics is ridiculous due to the fact that they're part of both NATO and the EU, but even if it were true it wouldn't change my current position: continue supporting Ukraine's defense effort and advancing towards some sort of integration of EU militaries rather than NATO, given that the US is a shaky ally.

The “unreliable, shaky” US supplied about the same amount of military help as the rest of the world. Without US Ukraine will lose the war, unless all other countries increase their support by more than twice.

And there's about a 50% chance that in a year's time they will do a 180 and pull all support from Ukraine and start actively working with Russia. That's why they're a shaky ally.

Great for Ukraine, but A) Half the active US electorate currently supports a Putin simp, which may likely lead to schizophrenic geopolitics sooner than later, and B) I don't want my country to get dragged into another 20 years war at an irrelevant part of the world with no clear goal or purpose because my ally was attacked by the people they've continued antagonizing for decades, and they decided to overreact in response due to spurious interests. So yeah, pretty much any sane and well informed person will want their country to be able to protect their own sovereignity without US help, and as it turns out, that's an option for EU countries, provided we actually work on it.

irrelevant part of the world

Ukraine grows a lot of grain. If the countries it exports grain to don't get that grain, millions starve. Starvation will greatly contribute to regional instability in already fragile states. We've already seen a series of coups in Africa and if Ukraine and Russia keep fighting, we will see more and more of them, each one more violent and desperate than the rest. We've seen millions of refugees from Syria before, get ready to see a hundred million in the years to come.

I meant the occupation of Afghanistan. You can see in my post above that I support the defense of Ukraine.

Oh I'm sorry. Yeah, Afghanistan is a place where both empires and dreams go to die. My father in law fought in Soviet-Afghan war and hasn't stopped drinking since.

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin continues to show that Russia is not interested in serious peace negotiations

At least they call him out for being a dictator.

How many different countries is this clown willing to sacrifice men in?

All the countries. Just like Hitler, he won't stop until somebody stops him.

Difference is Hitler was successfully invading countries.

Hitler would have been stopped in Czechoslovakia if France and Britain weren't being run by gullible pussies.

Without doing the slightest of research: Are these recent pictures of Putin? To me, they've looked the same for ages. Are these just archive photos?

He’s depleting all his munitions and bodies in Ukraine. Chance of multiple fronts right now is low at best.

Well ofcourse he's saying this stuff, it's not like he can back down now. Sunk cost fallacy and so on.. The thing about going to war though is that you need an army for that. Putin may be stubborn but I don't think he's stupid. Now is not the time to gamble with NATOs article 5.

I call bullshit on this, This is nothing short of propaganda by think tank that is financed by the military industrial complex.

Putin won't dare NATO member countries, especially when he hasn't finished with Ukraine.

After the elections in 2024 the picture could be different. Putin's long term strategy has been to weaken NATO by supporting NATO-skeptic parties. Depending on election outcomes there is a real possibility that key members fail to adhere to their Article 5 obligations

Guess we’ll have to do nothing except condemn those nations to fight a bloody war again, sad

No they're actually in NATO unlike Ukraine. If NATO didn't defend them directly it would be the end of NATO. Even if Trump or someone uncooperative with NATO was president of the US, I think Europe would still engage in a collective defense if Russia started attacking EU countries.

Supporting Ukraine now is the best way to prevent any of this from coming to pass though.

Supporting Ukraine now is the best way to prevent any of this from coming to pass though.

Not gonna hold my breath that this means Ukraine gets more support, though. We’re dumb.

Very true.

Assuming that Trump wins and somehow withdrawals us from NATO and only the EU fights Russia, there is going to be a ton of suck that is going to smack the US in the face after that, really quick.

Here is a grim outlook, but is something that some right wing groups really want. It's either a setup for a civil war or a dictatorship. Or both. This is a scenario, not what I believe will happen as it's kind of extreme.

Global trade is a real thing and many goods and services that Americans use are provided by the EU. A few major drug companies are based in Europe, so that is a start, so those are going to be the first to go if the EU withdrawals from any trade agreements.

Many people don't realize that a great number of components that the US uses for its weapons originate in the EU. This includes everything from missiles to basic components used in civilian firearms. (Gunpowder, primers, brass and bullets to name a few. It's a lot. The US hasn't fully recovered from the pandemic shortages in that regard, either.)

China will likely put heavy restrictions on exports to the US in support of Russia. While this could be beneficial to the US in the long run, it will take years for the US to develop its own manufacturing to produce the quantity of cheap plastic disposable shit that Americans crave. Basic electronics prices will skyrocket since the availability of fake components will tank.

Honestly, I could see the EU restricting business and exports to a much larger degree. Between the EU and China, they could completely tank the US economy and kill our stock markets. This will have global repercussions as the ouroboros must feed.

This is a real end of the world kind of view, but the pandemic showed us how vulnerable global markets really are and how stupid humanity can get in some cases. It puts some absurd scenarios in very close proximity.

I don't think the EU would restrict exports to the USA so much as be unable to provide them in a war.

I also think that China would push its claim on Taiwan while Russia invades the EU to push the USA into a diplomatic corner.

100% and considering the uk alone has the same defence budget as russie I think its highly unlikely putin would risk a conflict with even european nato by itself

The main issue when it comes to European defence is the fact that we don’t have the ammo factories and such located in europe itself, which is a major strategic risk

Sweden produces some things, like some shells for artillery. Currently if you place an order you only have to wait 5 years. That's nothing in times of war and unrest, right? Right?