I wish them the best of luck. Not that they have any chance of success but the more damage they cause to the Russian army, the better
Was there actually anything stopping them before, other than some traffic cops with a grenade launcher, and some excavator operators frantically digging up the motorway?
No, but they chickened out and now Putin has had a month to set up defenses
Military equipment in Russia protecting Putin is military equipment that can't be used to attack Ukraine, so this is still a win.
Especially if Wagner manages to destroy some or a lot of them.
And if they don't, their own equipment is destroyed which also belongs to Russia.
Putin lost his corn flakes.
It was a bad idea to begin with. Putin would and did flee to his bunker and then have to endure a siege on Moscow after that... There is no way they win a siege against the Russian army, in Moscow.
Yea but at least he would have died fighting. Now he died for nothing lol
Died fighting whom? The Russian populace that he seems to support, and are apathetic at worst towards him? It's not like Putin himself was going to lead the siege charge on horse back carrying an AK or something.
Wagner group doesn't have any air assets, the Air Force probably could annihilate them on the way to Moscow. Not much cover in Russia
Well that did not work so well the first time. No idea if they still have any anti air capacity though.
not anymore, they had to give up all heavy equipment
The Russian Air Force sucks absolute balls at CAS. Apart from their general systemic issues, they don’t train for CAS, and it shows in Ukraine. Also, when Wagner tried to bum-rush Moscow the first time, pilots who actually attempted CAS missions didn’t do so well - there are several videos of them trying to airstrike Wagner positions and columns where the Russian pilots are not even close to putting munitions on-target effectively.
Wagner even shot down one Russian helicopter.
Wagner did manage to take down quite a few Russian air units in a short period of time before.
Whether that was due to lack of organization and command among the Russian military because of the surprise of Wagner's actions is up for debate, but I guess we might get to see how that turns out this time around.
FSB as an organization needs to die to the man before anything good can happen in Russia.
Not all personnel. Top 1 - 3, maybe.
Wouldn’t they have a better chance if Biden funded them?
I hope that you realize at some level how batshit insane that idea is.
Oops, All Taliban!™️
Perhaps, but that sounds like it would backfire pretty much immediately.
Yeah we've already tried shit like that 20 or 30 times, we do eventually learn our lesson.
Considering they're arguably even worse than Putin, we probably don't want them to actually have a chance at being successful, it's just that any forces Russia has to use to stop them are forces they aren't using in Ukraine. Giving them funding would be a seriously bad move.
If Biden funds them Biden funds a direct attack on Russia, due to the increased pressure Russia will take that as an attack from the US and will escalate. We want to deescalate everything we can because we don’t know if putin will use his nukes, and if he does the world ends. Putin will not win a war with the us though, so he may not care about the end of the world.
Every near nuclear war has been averted by Russian officers. The dude on the sub near Cuba and the other dude who realised that the USA hadn't launched nukes, it was their computer system falsely alerting.
100% success rate so far!
Sure so far, but a direct order from Putin directly after killing the last man who crossed him? If it came to it he would launch everything he’s got because anything not launched gets destroyed by mutually assured destruction, so every single Russian officer would have to refuse to launch. And it only takes one launch to be devastating and trigger a complete reaction from the US as our anti-Russian propaganda is still strong.
I doubt propaganda has any bearing on the choice to react. Because you know at that point it is shooting back?
While it is shooting back, it’s also the end of the world. It’s very possible the people would not fire back and instead just let America die for the sake of the world. The propaganda makes them feel like they are “just shooting back” and they will.
Its the end of the world once 3 of these weapons (if cold war literature is to be believed) go off as it will plunge the world into an ash winter. And as far as I am aware no nation fires less then 6 at a time. It would be the end of the world and no amount of propaganda changes that. No one in their right mind would hold off pulling that trigger against an entity they know just killed everyone they knew.
Why would you believe Cold War literature? Propaganda influenced everything. And also the UK would not be the main target if it is America pretty much directly engaging Russia as this suggests. They need those defense dollars to quit coming towards them. And america is its own continent, if Russia was to launch all they could at America and America just sat there and took it it might end life on North America and permanently ruin South America due to fallout, but the rest of the world would survive although it would never be the same.
Well it was not American literature...... What is with everyone and the US?
Because the US is historically the most powerful long-lasting nation. The ussr was competitive but they fell, and china is a very very new power. It also doesn’t matter if it was American literature because the Cold War and its associated propaganda was of interest to most countries as their fate was tied to neither doing anything as well.
I take it you are American then?
Because a few empires would have some issue with that first statement "historically".
I meant to say that still exists. My bad that I left that out.
nukes were never on the table. putin's goal number one is holding power in russia, and it's no fun when it's all shiny glass or when you're dead. the reason behind invasion? believe it or not, also holding more power within russia. over two decades of putin's presidency, he carefully molded his electoral base to consist of nationalists, and every time he invaded another country his ratings went up (2008, georgia, 2014, donbas, 2022, ukraine, at least initially) because even if your elections are faked, you need it to be believable and you need to have some real support. that's even how he got presidency in the first place, by initiating second chechen war
in this situation, what options putin does have?
he can't sue for peace right now, or deescalate in a big way, because his electoral base will see this as a sign of weakness and move on to another rabid nationalist
he can't escalate, because he has little to escalate with, in terms of (modern) equipment and (mobilized) manpower. mobilization is an unacceptable political risk, additionally, he runs a risk of corresponding western escalation, with west is much more capable of, and would consist of equipment only, which is much less politically risky
he can't use nukes, because there's already nuclear bunker buster with his name somewhere in the midwest and he probably wants it to stay there
the only survivable option for putin seems to keep intensity at this level or lower, try to limit western aid, and try to slowly grind through to whatever propaganda objective he wants. remember all these russian threats, that if west provides whatever equipment, they will use nuukes! it seems that everyone called bluff on this one, multiple times. conversely, the more favourable scenario for ukraine is escalation. more info here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWKGYnO0Jf4https://yt.artemislena.eu/watch?v=fWKGYnO0Jf4
I wish them the best of luck. Not that they have any chance of success but the more damage they cause to the Russian army, the better
Was there actually anything stopping them before, other than some traffic cops with a grenade launcher, and some excavator operators frantically digging up the motorway?
No, but they chickened out and now Putin has had a month to set up defenses
Military equipment in Russia protecting Putin is military equipment that can't be used to attack Ukraine, so this is still a win.
Especially if Wagner manages to destroy some or a lot of them.
And if they don't, their own equipment is destroyed which also belongs to Russia.
Putin lost his corn flakes.
It was a bad idea to begin with. Putin would and did flee to his bunker and then have to endure a siege on Moscow after that... There is no way they win a siege against the Russian army, in Moscow.
Yea but at least he would have died fighting. Now he died for nothing lol
Died fighting whom? The Russian populace that he seems to support, and are apathetic at worst towards him? It's not like Putin himself was going to lead the siege charge on horse back carrying an AK or something.
Wagner group doesn't have any air assets, the Air Force probably could annihilate them on the way to Moscow. Not much cover in Russia
Well that did not work so well the first time. No idea if they still have any anti air capacity though.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/26/wagner-group-shot-down-seven-russian-aircraft-coup-attempt/
not anymore, they had to give up all heavy equipment
The Russian Air Force sucks absolute balls at CAS. Apart from their general systemic issues, they don’t train for CAS, and it shows in Ukraine. Also, when Wagner tried to bum-rush Moscow the first time, pilots who actually attempted CAS missions didn’t do so well - there are several videos of them trying to airstrike Wagner positions and columns where the Russian pilots are not even close to putting munitions on-target effectively.
Wagner even shot down one Russian helicopter.
Wagner did manage to take down quite a few Russian air units in a short period of time before.
Whether that was due to lack of organization and command among the Russian military because of the surprise of Wagner's actions is up for debate, but I guess we might get to see how that turns out this time around.
https://www.businessinsider.com/wagner-prigozhin-took-down-7-russia-helicopters-plane-rebellion-ukraine-2023-6?op=1
They have decent aa, they were brutal on Russian jets.
Anti-aircraft is different than air assets I get it that both are AA but I meant an air assets not anti-aircraft. 👍
Same could have been said for their day trip. And that saw several helicopters and a couple of fixed wing aircraft getting knocked out the sky.
You forget that Russia had some garbage trucks lined up as well 🧱
We call them tactical landfill launchers.
I wonder if Putin will try destroying the roads to Moscow again.
And run away to hide in St. Petersburg
FSB as an organization needs to die to the man before anything good can happen in Russia.
Not all personnel. Top 1 - 3, maybe.
Wouldn’t they have a better chance if Biden funded them?
I hope that you realize at some level how batshit insane that idea is.
Oops, All Taliban!™️
Perhaps, but that sounds like it would backfire pretty much immediately.
Yeah we've already tried shit like that 20 or 30 times, we do eventually learn our lesson.
Considering they're arguably even worse than Putin, we probably don't want them to actually have a chance at being successful, it's just that any forces Russia has to use to stop them are forces they aren't using in Ukraine. Giving them funding would be a seriously bad move.
If Biden funds them Biden funds a direct attack on Russia, due to the increased pressure Russia will take that as an attack from the US and will escalate. We want to deescalate everything we can because we don’t know if putin will use his nukes, and if he does the world ends. Putin will not win a war with the us though, so he may not care about the end of the world.
Every near nuclear war has been averted by Russian officers. The dude on the sub near Cuba and the other dude who realised that the USA hadn't launched nukes, it was their computer system falsely alerting.
100% success rate so far!
Sure so far, but a direct order from Putin directly after killing the last man who crossed him? If it came to it he would launch everything he’s got because anything not launched gets destroyed by mutually assured destruction, so every single Russian officer would have to refuse to launch. And it only takes one launch to be devastating and trigger a complete reaction from the US as our anti-Russian propaganda is still strong.
I doubt propaganda has any bearing on the choice to react. Because you know at that point it is shooting back?
While it is shooting back, it’s also the end of the world. It’s very possible the people would not fire back and instead just let America die for the sake of the world. The propaganda makes them feel like they are “just shooting back” and they will.
Its the end of the world once 3 of these weapons (if cold war literature is to be believed) go off as it will plunge the world into an ash winter. And as far as I am aware no nation fires less then 6 at a time. It would be the end of the world and no amount of propaganda changes that. No one in their right mind would hold off pulling that trigger against an entity they know just killed everyone they knew.
Oh and the UK would be the one most likely targeted by russia not the US. They have been threatening to for over a year: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2022/05/03/russia-just-threatened-to-destroy-ireland-and-britain-with-a-nuclear-tsunami/?sh=6eade8dc32b6
https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/05/04/rattling-nuclear-saber-what-russia-s-nuclear-threats-really-mean-pub-89689
Why would you believe Cold War literature? Propaganda influenced everything. And also the UK would not be the main target if it is America pretty much directly engaging Russia as this suggests. They need those defense dollars to quit coming towards them. And america is its own continent, if Russia was to launch all they could at America and America just sat there and took it it might end life on North America and permanently ruin South America due to fallout, but the rest of the world would survive although it would never be the same.
Well it was not American literature...... What is with everyone and the US?
Because the US is historically the most powerful long-lasting nation. The ussr was competitive but they fell, and china is a very very new power. It also doesn’t matter if it was American literature because the Cold War and its associated propaganda was of interest to most countries as their fate was tied to neither doing anything as well.
I take it you are American then?
Because a few empires would have some issue with that first statement "historically".
I meant to say that still exists. My bad that I left that out.
nukes were never on the table. putin's goal number one is holding power in russia, and it's no fun when it's all shiny glass or when you're dead. the reason behind invasion? believe it or not, also holding more power within russia. over two decades of putin's presidency, he carefully molded his electoral base to consist of nationalists, and every time he invaded another country his ratings went up (2008, georgia, 2014, donbas, 2022, ukraine, at least initially) because even if your elections are faked, you need it to be believable and you need to have some real support. that's even how he got presidency in the first place, by initiating second chechen war
in this situation, what options putin does have?
the only survivable option for putin seems to keep intensity at this level or lower, try to limit western aid, and try to slowly grind through to whatever propaganda objective he wants. remember all these russian threats, that if west provides whatever equipment, they will use nuukes! it seems that everyone called bluff on this one, multiple times. conversely, the more favourable scenario for ukraine is escalation. more info here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWKGYnO0Jf4 https://yt.artemislena.eu/watch?v=fWKGYnO0Jf4
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