I wish them the best of luck. Not that they have any chance of success but the more damage they cause to the Russian army, the better
Was there actually anything stopping them before, other than some traffic cops with a grenade launcher, and some excavator operators frantically digging up the motorway?
No, but they chickened out and now Putin has had a month to set up defenses
Military equipment in Russia protecting Putin is military equipment that can't be used to attack Ukraine, so this is still a win.
Especially if Wagner manages to destroy some or a lot of them.
And if they don't, their own equipment is destroyed which also belongs to Russia.
Putin lost his corn flakes.
It was a bad idea to begin with. Putin would and did flee to his bunker and then have to endure a siege on Moscow after that... There is no way they win a siege against the Russian army, in Moscow.
Yea but at least he would have died fighting. Now he died for nothing lol
Died fighting whom? The Russian populace that he seems to support, and are apathetic at worst towards him? It's not like Putin himself was going to lead the siege charge on horse back carrying an AK or something.
Wagner group doesn't have any air assets, the Air Force probably could annihilate them on the way to Moscow. Not much cover in Russia
Well that did not work so well the first time. No idea if they still have any anti air capacity though.
not anymore, they had to give up all heavy equipment
The Russian Air Force sucks absolute balls at CAS. Apart from their general systemic issues, they don’t train for CAS, and it shows in Ukraine. Also, when Wagner tried to bum-rush Moscow the first time, pilots who actually attempted CAS missions didn’t do so well - there are several videos of them trying to airstrike Wagner positions and columns where the Russian pilots are not even close to putting munitions on-target effectively.
Wagner even shot down one Russian helicopter.
Wagner did manage to take down quite a few Russian air units in a short period of time before.
Whether that was due to lack of organization and command among the Russian military because of the surprise of Wagner's actions is up for debate, but I guess we might get to see how that turns out this time around.
FSB as an organization needs to die to the man before anything good can happen in Russia.
Not all personnel. Top 1 - 3, maybe.
Wouldn’t they have a better chance if Biden funded them?
I hope that you realize at some level how batshit insane that idea is.
Oops, All Taliban!™️
Perhaps, but that sounds like it would backfire pretty much immediately.
Yeah we've already tried shit like that 20 or 30 times, we do eventually learn our lesson.
Considering they're arguably even worse than Putin, we probably don't want them to actually have a chance at being successful, it's just that any forces Russia has to use to stop them are forces they aren't using in Ukraine. Giving them funding would be a seriously bad move.
If Biden funds them Biden funds a direct attack on Russia, due to the increased pressure Russia will take that as an attack from the US and will escalate. We want to deescalate everything we can because we don’t know if putin will use his nukes, and if he does the world ends. Putin will not win a war with the us though, so he may not care about the end of the world.
Every near nuclear war has been averted by Russian officers. The dude on the sub near Cuba and the other dude who realised that the USA hadn't launched nukes, it was their computer system falsely alerting.
100% success rate so far!
Sure so far, but a direct order from Putin directly after killing the last man who crossed him? If it came to it he would launch everything he’s got because anything not launched gets destroyed by mutually assured destruction, so every single Russian officer would have to refuse to launch. And it only takes one launch to be devastating and trigger a complete reaction from the US as our anti-Russian propaganda is still strong.
I doubt propaganda has any bearing on the choice to react. Because you know at that point it is shooting back?
While it is shooting back, it’s also the end of the world. It’s very possible the people would not fire back and instead just let America die for the sake of the world. The propaganda makes them feel like they are “just shooting back” and they will.
Its the end of the world once 3 of these weapons (if cold war literature is to be believed) go off as it will plunge the world into an ash winter. And as far as I am aware no nation fires less then 6 at a time. It would be the end of the world and no amount of propaganda changes that. No one in their right mind would hold off pulling that trigger against an entity they know just killed everyone they knew.
Why would you believe Cold War literature? Propaganda influenced everything. And also the UK would not be the main target if it is America pretty much directly engaging Russia as this suggests. They need those defense dollars to quit coming towards them. And america is its own continent, if Russia was to launch all they could at America and America just sat there and took it it might end life on North America and permanently ruin South America due to fallout, but the rest of the world would survive although it would never be the same.
Well it was not American literature...... What is with everyone and the US?
Because the US is historically the most powerful long-lasting nation. The ussr was competitive but they fell, and china is a very very new power. It also doesn’t matter if it was American literature because the Cold War and its associated propaganda was of interest to most countries as their fate was tied to neither doing anything as well.
I take it you are American then?
Because a few empires would have some issue with that first statement "historically".
nukes were never on the table. putin's goal number one is holding power in russia, and it's no fun when it's all shiny glass or when you're dead. the reason behind invasion? believe it or not, also holding more power within russia. over two decades of putin's presidency, he carefully molded his electoral base to consist of nationalists, and every time he invaded another country his ratings went up (2008, georgia, 2014, donbas, 2022, ukraine, at least initially) because even if your elections are faked, you need it to be believable and you need to have some real support. that's even how he got presidency in the first place, by initiating second chechen war
in this situation, what options putin does have?
he can't sue for peace right now, or deescalate in a big way, because his electoral base will see this as a sign of weakness and move on to another rabid nationalist
he can't escalate, because he has little to escalate with, in terms of (modern) equipment and (mobilized) manpower. mobilization is an unacceptable political risk, additionally, he runs a risk of corresponding western escalation, with west is much more capable of, and would consist of equipment only, which is much less politically risky
he can't use nukes, because there's already nuclear bunker buster with his name somewhere in the midwest and he probably wants it to stay there
the only survivable option for putin seems to keep intensity at this level or lower, try to limit western aid, and try to slowly grind through to whatever propaganda objective he wants. remember all these russian threats, that if west provides whatever equipment, they will use nuukes! it seems that everyone called bluff on this one, multiple times. conversely, the more favourable scenario for ukraine is escalation. more info here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWKGYnO0Jf4https://yt.artemislena.eu/watch?v=fWKGYnO0Jf4
For everyone just tuning in: This show is notorious for having bad season finales.
Did J.J. Abrams write?
Not enough lens flares.
Behind the Bastards has an episode about Jim Caviezel, and in it they discussed several anonymous and one non anonymous retelling of working with the man. If the allegations are to be believed, he kept being worse and worse not understanding his characters motivations, and they had to adjust some stuff to stop him ruining the show. They mention him doing stuff like actually harming other actors/stunt doubles if he was doing action scenes, a desire to just kill and shoot up enemies, and being really bad later on about following the script.
I loved that show, had no idea of anything about the actor behind John Reese. Just read some articles and he sounds like a right nutter.
The podcast QAnon Anonymous has an episode about the same topic, also quoting three people who worked on the show. It's glorious, Irecommend it wholeheartedly.
You know, I listened to that too, so it's possible I'm mixing them up. Both talked about him but the quotes may have come from QAA and maybe I just mixed it up in my head.
As someone who viewed Person of Interest down to the last episode, this was a series that started strong, followed with a solid 2nd season and at this point it was like watching two series at once, one taking in consideration the roots of the story, the other written by a teenager fan group, wanting to turn up the dial for more intrigue.
The way it ended was a coup de grace, more than anything.
Having not finished any of these shows I'm unsure of if the format is telling me they have good endings or not. I'm guessing not but I heard Fringe and POI are great.
Directed by M Night something something
M Night Shenanigans
he had help from m knight
I hate how they just kill important characters offscreen.
The old comic book rule of 'no body no death' might come into play
I hope they don't clone the imperator.
Take it with a grain of salt, people, none of the trustworthy sources confirmed any of that - just a couple of Ukrainian outlets (understandable as psyop) and, well, yahoo news and the like.
As a Russian living in Russia and, obviously, closely following all the shit show, it does not seem like Wagner is going to do anything.
Then again, I'm not sure about shit after 24 Feb 2022.
I am curious if you think Putin will allow Wagner Corp to continue operating as it has, or if they will all now fall under his direction. And if it's the latter, will they be paid and who will be writing the check?
PREFACE: Prior to 24 Feb 2022, I was really skeptical that Putin would start the war at all, though, so I might be really wrong here - I'm no expert, just a regular rusky Ivan with some opinions. Things in Russia aren't really predictable at the moment.
And if it’s the latter, will they be paid and who will be writing the check?
Unfortunately, all the tax-payers - remember, the government has no money of its own, only the money of its citizen and tax residents.
I am curious if you think Putin will allow Wagner Corp to continue operating as it has, or if they will all now fall under his direction.
Judging by the mutiny in June, I think the mercs will receive offers to join the regular military as contractors or something along these lines. The PMC itself will be probably be manipulated into control one way or another, either via a direct acquisition or some other scheme, all in attempt to smother the beast Putin himself had created.
Then again, Putin is not a smart guy people make him out to be - he's very prone to mistakes, especially after 20+ years of constant ass-licking from the various abundant yes-men (and the assassinations of the no-men). Look no further than the various regional battalion he's ordered to conjure, which is supposed to be carried out by the governors, essentially creating local not-so-private militaries. Sure, they're not mercs and really far from being experienced combatants with all the subsequent traumas like the Wagner mercs are, and most likely have way less sense of freedom and lawlessness because they hadn't lived that lifestyle before (and won't know), but it still is an armed group of people that is deliberately put into some separate division based on their region - civil war isn't any near now, but dividing armed people into areas rather than just putting everyone in the same military power is not a good idea, especially not in the situation Russia finds itself in.
All that being said, the most important point is the following: Russia as a governmental entity has been very carefully engineering a society with as few leaders as possible, and succeeded well enough to make sure that our people just don't really act on their desires and urges to protest en masse and for long; while it's one thing for us, civilians, who aren't armed, aren't hardened by combat, aren't used to real violence, the Wagner mercs aren't really taught to be free-thinking individuals either, so even if they all want to storm Kremlin, I just don't see that happening unless a figure powerful enough to lead them emerges.
I think the mercs will receive offers to join the regular military as contractors or something along these lines.
That's what I would do if I were Putin. I would basically dissolve the Wagner charter or whatever the equivalent is in Russia. I would then have a "skills interview and test" (loyalty test) and give the most loyal a pay bump and a promotion, even if in title only. I would basically make everyone an independent contractor so they all get paid different rates and have different performance incentives based off their role. That would basically ensure that they stay loyal to you, as they would be way less likely to join forces if everyone thinks they are special and better then the next guy.
Then if the regular military catches wind of anyone's pay, you can just say "they are an elite squad, some get paid more due to hazard pay"
Then again, Putin is not a smart guy people make him out to be - he's very prone to mistakes, especially after 20+ years of constant ass-licking from the various abundant yes-men (and the assassinations of the no-men). Look no further than the various regional battalion he's ordered to conjure, which is supposed to be carried out by the governors, essentially creating local not-so-private militaries. Sure, they're not mercs and really far from being experienced combatants with all the subsequent traumas like the Wagner mercs are, and most likely have way less sense of freedom and lawlessness because they hadn't lived that lifestyle before (and won't know), but it still is an armed group of people that is deliberately put into some separate division based on their region - civil war isn't any near now, but dividing armed people into areas rather than just putting everyone in the same military power is not a good idea, especially not in the situation Russia finds itself in.
This is fascinating and the first I have heard of this. You clearly speak English well, do you have an English source I can read more about this?
That’s what I would do if I were Putin. I would basically dissolve the Wagner charter or whatever the equivalent is in Russia. I would then have a “skills interview and test” (loyalty test) and give the most loyal a pay bump and a promotion, even if in title only. I would basically make everyone an independent contractor so they all get paid different rates and have different performance incentives based off their role. That would basically ensure that they stay loyal to you, as they would be way less likely to join forces if everyone thinks they are special and better then the next guy.
I don't want to sound mean, but that sounds like a massive overcomplication from Putin's side. To me, what you're saying seems to make sense, but you and I are not Putin - I think neither of us is a narcissistic psychopath that's been killing people en masse for at least a couple of dozen years. What makes sense to you or me might not necessary make any bit of sense to Putin - we wouldn't have seen this war play out, nor the Crimea annexation, nor even Euromaidan, because without Putin's egoistic attempts to control Ukraine via proxies (Yanukovich and the entire war in Donbass being the prime example) or directly.
If we start talking about this from positions of common sense, we'll simply go back so far back in time that it's just easier to assume that everyone would be better off without Putin as a whole in the first place, from the very beginning.
You clearly speak English well, do you have an English source I can read more about this?
First of all, thank you! It's probably my most cherished skill - really did open a lot of opportunities in my life in many ways. Not really sure I wouldn't be rooting for Putin if it wasn't for English leading me to more liberal places, first outside the Russian internet, then - interestingly enough - inside the Russian internet and Russia itself.
As for the English sources, I'm afraid I can't recommend anything. Things I know and share are mostly courtesy of the Russian-native sources of various kind, complied in my mind over years and years of discourse.
Since links to other social media sites are forbidden by the rules here, I'll leave a few easily-searchable sources below. Keep in mind that none of them are native English speakers, but all have their content readily available in English one way or another. It's not as easy as I'd love it to be to share with you, but it's the best sources I could think of to share with someone outside Russia, helping them understand what's actually going on.
Vlad Vexler (YouTube) - I can't really recall who he is exactly, but it's safe to say he's been studying/looking at the Russian politics for many years now, and shares some insights with the English-speaking audience. He doesn't live in Russia and, from what I can tell, hasn't lived there for decades, so he is a little rusty and out of touch with things like motivations of the elites, the processes in the society, etc., but it's a good enough source if you need an English-speaking source.
Maxim Katz (YouTube) - a Russian-speaking politician, currently wanted by the Russian government and living in Israel until he can come back. Probably the best speaker we have right now. His production has gotten really professional since the beginning of the war in terms of subtitles, the topic coverage, upload frequency (as of yet, it's daily, so there's a lot of content if you're interested) - very easy to follow, very humane, and extremely representative of the Russian society's current demands and thoughts, despite everything people have to say. The channel covers a lot of topics, both from the liberal perspective and the more conservative/conformist one, trying to reach out to as many people as possible; sometimes they cover some things about the Russian opposition and the challenges it's facing, which is a great peek into what's going in Russian minds, too; sometimes they present some analysis on what's to come in terms of the war or Russia or Putin, also making it very clear that their forecasts are extremely tentative due to the nature of such things in the situation Russia is in thanks to Putin; honestly. there's so much Maxim and his team talk about that I wouldn't be able to list everything here, but if you want to have a consistent, worthwhile and sensible insight into the country that Russia is today, this is probably the best option aside from regularly talking to someone inside (speaking of which, feel free to reach out, I'll be happy to try and answer some questions; sometimes it makes me feel like I'm doing my little part in dissolving the myths about the obedient slavery-loving Russians that just crave to live under some mad dictatorships).
Ekaterina Schulmann (YouTube) - an extremely experienced and professional political scientist. She does have a channel, but also gives interviews to various media outside Russia in English, so you'll have an easier time with getting info from her. Her analysis and understanding of Russia are a little more complicated than that of Maxim's and Vlad's from above, but if you want a really thorough look across large swathes of content, both from her specifically and just featuring her, this is definitely the woman to follow.
Ksenia Sobchak (YouTube and Telegram) - quite a big name in Russia in general, and now in more liberal media as well, but I can't tell you much about her because she cover a wide variety of topics not just related to politics. Still, she's another great example of someone trying to talk to both those pro war and those against - because, trust me, it's a very complicated topic and throwing the former aside only helps Putin. Surely worth a few looks, especially over at YouTube with some subtitles.
Mikhail Khodorkovsky (YouTube) - a bit more radial than the rest, but nonetheless worth checking out. The insights he offers are a little more outdated than that of Maxim's because Mikhail has been living outside Russia for years now, and spent even more in jail prior - Putin didn't like him for multiple reasons and dealt with him in a relatively nice way (took away his business and with that, a great workplace for millions of people; I think my father used to work at his company, UKOS, and it was definitely better than today's Rosneft for him in particular and us as a family as a whole). I do believe he is worth checking out anyway because he brings his experience of being a very active member of the Russian society during the 90s and 00s.
I really appreciate you taking the time to write all this out!
I wouldn't know what questions to even ask without first going through and watching the videos from what you posted.
I guess my own questions right now would be about technology and access to information.
Like how difficult is it to use the internet in Russia? Have you traveled internationally to have something to compare it to? I heard a lot of people use VPNs, do they worry a lot about being caught? What can't you do without a VPN?
I am also curious if you consume any western media, and if so what are your favorite and least favorite outlets. I am also curious what western sources have seemed the most accurate to you about Russia in general, if any at all.
Honest at this point I wouldn't even blink if Prigozhin popped up in the future to tell us they faked their deaths.
To be clear, I believe that he's dead (and that it was probably an assassination by Putin), but so many other outrageous things have happened already little surprises me.
That's the first thing I thought when I heard about his death. He should have known that Putin would likely want him dead, so pretending to board a plane that gets shot down is a pretty good way to fake your death. Does he use his fake death to plot revenge or to escape, never to be heard from again?
Who knows if Putin even wanted him dead. It could be a way for him to step out of the spotlight and let Putin show what happens to those who disobey. They have a huge issue with deserters.
I wouldn't be surprised if they were found eating kaviar off each others nibbles.
Putin wanted him dead without a doubt. He challenged Putin's authority and marched his forces on Moscow. The Wagner group made Putin look like a scared little bitch, which he probably is in real life, so he's insecure about it.
Both sides are violent oligarchs that murder people for profit and power. I'll quote Clarence Darrow here:
“One reason why we don’t kill is because we are not used to it. I never killed anybody, but I have done just the same thing. I have had a great deal of satisfaction over many obituary notices that I have read. I never got into the habit of killing. I could mention the names of many that it would please me if I could read their obituaries in the paper in the morning,”
Sure they probably would kill each other just for fun, but they were also allies until this.
It's about money. They're mercenaries. If they don't get paid, they'll bite the hand that feeds them. That's likely why they marched to Moscow. So Prigizhin got paid and they turned around. But what now? Prigozhin has the money. Suddenly dies. Did his mercenaries get paid? Dead men don't pay bills. There's no hand to bite. The mercenaries were prisoners before they joined Wagner. It's unlikely that neither Putin or Prigozhin gives a fuck about them.
If you ask me, it's really fucking convenient for both Putin and Prigozhin to fake his death right about payday.
I wouldn't be surprised if they were found eating kaviar off each others nibbles.
I did not ask for this mental image today
I'd hoped he piloted a Kamikaze plane into Putin's card fortress so both of them could go to hell to meet Hitler whom they admired so much
At this point it's such a clown show that I wouldn't be surprised by much.
Prigozhin was thought dead from a plane crash before and arrived 2 days later.
Fucken do it then
I'd believe it when I see it. It's not going to happen.
We all saw what happened last time. Someone got cold feet and then became a pussy.
Doubtful. They are mercenaries and won't be getting paid anymore. Mercenaries have no allegiance to anybody.
Just because the leader was presumably killed, doesn't mean they stop getting paid. Do you get fired from your job if your boss dies?
If your boss is the CEO and owner, maybe yeah.
If your boss was the one that had connections with the client, then maybe eventually yeah.
Yeah, was gonna say. A CEO dying doesn't stop the paychecks in a normal company, but if the CEO was murdered by the company's only client...
I know of two small ? (Not sure what the cutoff is) businesses and payroll would stop if they died. They would be paid eventually as the companies have assets, but it would take a while for them to pick up the pieces. Basically for one of them their lead saleswoman would have to assume the role and teach herself basically everything he was doing. Instead of hiring HR/AP/Etc. he outsourced everything to programs and other companies other than sales, design and production. I honestly don't know if the company would survive if he died, which is sad because the lead saleswoman is his wife.
They're in the hire of Russia, do you imagine Russia is going to pay them to march on Moscow
If they aren't getting paid, might that instigate some revolt as well?
Idk about that one, they're employed by Wagner, Wagner is essentially the business entity that allows them to operate as a mercenary group. Who knows how much loyalty they have to their own command structure? If I were the owner of a private Merc army, I would try to instill as much loyalty as I can so they don't turn on me.
He's just saying things that sound nice in his head but have no basis in reality.
Nothing he wrote is controversial.
-Mercenaries get paid.
-Mercenaries as a group don't hold allegiance to a country
-Mercenaries don't like not getting paid.
I didn't say it was 'controversial', just inaccurate. There's no controversy about it.
What makes you think military members are more loyal to their nation than mercenaries? Heck, one of my most upvoted responses says "Wagner was more gungho about the war in Ukraine than the military."
For a lot of mercenaries, the military doesn't go far enough or give them the freedom to shape the nation how they want.
Literally everything you said can also be said about soldiers, and in most cases it would be more accurate.
Mercenaries have no allegiance to anybody.
I mean, that's not entirely true. Some mercenaries actually have allegiance to their companies and really care about their goals.
You'd actually be way more accurate talking about soldiers in the state's military than mercenaries.
This is historically ignorant. Before professional armies, mercenaries would literally have their camps set up in a country that hired them, only to turn and ransack a nearby town after an enemy spy came in and paid them more to do it. Western society literally invented professional armies because of mercenaries.
Even if it's true...what does that change? I mean, bobman said that some mercenaries have alliegance to their companies. Not countires, companies. So mercs from Wagner have alliegance to Wagner Group, not Russia.
It would be so ironic if the plane crash was entirely an accident and not planned in any way, but no one believes it because of Putins history. And if they kill him for something he wasn’t actually involved in because of his past crimes ruining his credibility it would be oh-so-sweet
The 'tator that cried wolf.
Here we go again.
It will end not differently than last time.
When they had their leader, they might have had a chance to taking down Putin. Maybe. Slim chance, but a chance. Now they are fucked.
Still would be nice to put a hurt on the Russian military.
Any military units they manage to destroy is good for the rest of the world.
Not necessarily, because (I suspect) less soldiers Putin have more he would be willing to press that red button.
We can't change that regardless and can't forever cower under every threat Putin makes. Unless we just want to make him dictator of the world.
Appeasement never works, we should have learned that by now, but we need to make it clear.
Putin's unwillingness to push the red button is due to it resulting on every single nation in the World including China turning against him and Russia if he did do that (because if the first nation to use nukes offensivelly isn't examplarily punished for it, every nation in the World will rush to become nuclear capable - if only for self defense - which funilly enough flattens the capability of the giants such as China to push the little ones around hence even if only because of that they're against it) and likely Russia, he himself and his family ending up nuked sooner or later.
If there is one thing the Invasion of Ukraine has taught us is that if he thinks get away with it and end up better from doing it, no matter how evil. Putin will do it or have somebody do it for him.
Does Putin seem reasonable to you? I think it's pretty possible that he will be willing to take the whole world to the grave with him.
Absolutelly - so far he seems to be rational.
Not necessarily wise, certainly not morally upright (quite the opposite), but yeah, absolutelly rational.
He started a war to conquer territory and resources, likely based on certain expectations of capability of the Russian Military which were far from realistic as well as expectations on the Ukranian Military and Society which were also far fromrealistic. He went for a decapitation attack expecting Zelenskyy to be killed, captured or flee but none of that happenned and thus the "easy way" failed. From there onwards, as a dictator who has anchored his authority on an image of "strong man", we couldnt simply back down so everything that has been happenning since has been him trying to ideally gain something out of a bad situation or at least not to lose face.
All pretty rational. Not exactly strategically intelligent but certainly rational.
As for the use of nukes, notice how the ever increasing talk about using it from the russian authorities maybe a year ago suddenly stopped (except for fringe types and well known powerless russian muppets) when China made it very clear they would have to do something about it if Russia used those...
Even a strategically inept but rational actor can't miss the implications of China turning against Russia.
In hindsight, all he had to do was setup an assination squad before mobilizing troops in 2022. Had he killed Zelensky before the real fighting happened I think the country would have been very demoralized and it would have been much harder for them to get aid with a new leader, even if it wasn't a Russian plant.
And the more gains that they would have made earlier on, the less likely the West would have been to send aid, less it fall into the hands of Russia or some new corrupt politician.
Without the aid, Russia would have already won by now.
Apparently he did try it, several times, after the invasion started.
I suspect that in Putin's mind, before Zelenskyy revealled himself as a real leader ("I don't need a lift, I need ammo"), he was nothing more than a week "western-style politician" and comediant who would easilly fold.
It's very easy with hindsight to say he should've tried to take him out beforehand but at the time he (or, lets be honest, any of us, even the US President) really didn't know Zelenskyy's character: for all he knew back then, killing Zelenskyy might've just be taking out a weaker man and end up with a stronger man leading the Ukranian Government only by then Putin's hand would've been revealed.
Sure, it makes sense now, but back then knowing what he knew then, for Putin it clearly did not.
Again, it's like failure to do even the most basic research. He had all sorts of plants in Ukraine in before all this started, it would have been relatively easy to have spies to a character assessment. Just like I really don't understand why he wouldn't have done an equipment specification before moving all this equipment with dry rot and other failures. He had to have known that the everyone was skimming at best, and straight out stealing at worst.
Considering that even the US' intelligence failed to spot Zelenskyy's character as a war leader, I think we should be wary of proclaiming that the russian's could've find it out with "the most basic research"...
In fact people often don't really know if they'll rise to the occasion in such a life and death situation themselves until faced with it.
As I said, it's easy to look at it now and think "it was obvious", but that's due to hindsight.
What was rational in this war?
He wanted territory, mineral resources and even human resources (lots of industrial production in the territories Russia took) and expected the mighty Russian Army would crush the Ukranian Army (just like when they took Crimea) and the rest of the World wouldn't do much more than bitching & moaning (again, just like when Russia took Crimea). Apparently he was even expecting his men would be welcomed by the ukranians with open arms (remember how the head of Russian Intelligence was fire not long after the war started because of that?!) and that the rest of Europe could be controlled via Economic Pressure because of its dependency on Russian Gas.
It makes all sense that having overestimated the Russian Army and underestimated the Ukranian people and its Army as well as the will of the West to genuinelly help Ukraine (and looking at all the pussyfooting around providing modern jets and long range missiles to Ukraines, I would say that at least partially that's true), it looked like a good idea to begin with.
Once commited, given the style of leader he portrays himself as and the overreliance on nationalism to control the russian people, he was stuck with the Ukranians pushing back with western help and unwilling to give up and being politically unable to just conced the War as that would be almost literaly putting his neck on the block.
Then they'd have no soldiers
My Russian friend pointed out to me that Prigozhin was actually on his way to see Putin when he got shot down.
So they all went in one plane...
Yeah that part makes no sense, how dumb do you have to be to put the two main leaders in the same fucking plane flying near the capital
Russia hasn't been known for great decision making in recent years
Recent? I was watching a video about the USSR losing a whole bunch of their top generals because the idiots went on the same plane to some meeting. They used this little trip for some personal shopping. They bought a lot much stuff and it was improperly secured in the aircraft so it shifted during takeoff dooming them all.
Who knows what Putin told them to get them to visit him? "All is forgiven & I want you to run the ministry of defense".
I guess they thought no one would blow them up in public 😑
I mean let the fascist kill the fascist ig
ig
instagram??
I guess
Yeah, me too. Must be instagram then.
As long as they’re not killing Ukrainians, then I guess yeah, go do whatever…
They should join up with the Ukrainians.
No, in this case the enemy of their enemy is just another enemy.
Not really, if they join forces.
Wagner most definitely cannot be trusted.
Nah, they were even more gung-ho about the invasion than regular Russians.
My question is who is going to pick up the tab for these mercs? I can't see Putin doing it himself, as he wouldn't want to set precedent... but they are spoiled. I would assume it will be bad for Russia if they don't keep the money flowing.
The Kremlin has been paying for Wagner from the beginning. Wagner has always belonged to Putin. It's mercenary status has just been a mechanism of plausible deniability.
The best-trained ones might get onto the Russian military payroll if the Kremlin is smart and wants to retain some of its most battle-hardened troops.
CIA: hold my beer
This is a greater overall danger than many of you seem to realize. Their leader was a face and figurehead, the real power of Wagner mercenaries lies with the lieutenants. Without him, they are likely to splinter and become more brutal. Some are likely to be hired by the anti-Putin oligarchs, while others may align with Putin. This may result in Russia having to pull out of Ukraine, but that's not the end of this. Even if Putin is slammed out of power, that just results in an internal power struggle with deadly consequences. Those will not stay inside their borders.
Woohoo unstable country with huge nuclear stockpile.
Is the nuclear stockpile as good as the military equipment they use in Ukraine?
There only needs to be 1 functional one for it to kill thousands or even millions
It takes a lot to launch a nuke and land it accurately. I'm guessing Russia lost that ability years ago and they know it hence the sable rattling.
I don't know though my instinct says you're overstating the complexity. Doesn't really need to "land accurately" so much as detonate above any target population. Could just even be conventional ordinance with a nuclear payload.
I know it's not simple. Many things need to work in a certain way so they need to be maintained. Batteries must be replaced, systems must be tested frequently and security is very high. This is all expensive and knowing how cheap Russia is and lax their maintenance is, I'm betting many components were stolen which makes a success lunch much less likely.
Russians have been successfully launching Soyuz rockets longer than Americans have been launching space shuttles.
One has nothing to do with each other though did you hear they just lost their Moon lander?
Soyuz rockets do not sit in a stockpile for 40 years without maintenance before being launched.
Ask the Reddit brigade that got shelled to death back when the war first broke out.
All true, but it does not depend on this specific group of folks or the inciting incident of their leader's death. Violent internal power struggle spilling across borders is practically guaranteed no matter who the actors are. Even if Putin lives a long life and dies of natural causes, that's coming.
They won't. This isn't a card you can play twice, and UK.news.yahoo.com isn't any kind of reliable news source.
It's sourced from the Evening Standard, but that's not much better.
because it went so well before
It actually did. They only stopped because he made a deal with Putin. They covered hundreds of kilometers in hours.
That IS successful to that point. They were just so f*cking stupid, they thought Putin wouldn't kill them anyways for the betrayal... If he had even 1/6th of a functional brain, he should've realized the MOMENT he abandoned his orders in Ukraine, it was him or Putin.
The less wagnerites operating on Ukrainian soil the better. The less wagnerites helping illegal migrants to cross Polish-Belarusian border the better. The less wagnerites the better.
Fuck wagner but also fuck the polish border guards for murdering migrants.
I dont give a fuck if they're considered "legal" or not - they deserve to be treated like refugees not like a political pawn for both sides.
Just because they aren't "hunting them down" doesn't mean they aren't responsible for their deaths. They have killed them by way of pushbacks, keeping them in the cold and stopping volunteers from helping them. Hundreds have died and have not been recorded while they wash their hands of this abuse.
Poland's government is extremely racist and xenophobic and used the migrants as an easy way to rile up its supporters, while portraining them as "lukashenka's hordes".
Just because something doesn't ally with NATO narrative doesn't mean it's disinformation.
Where is the data supporting your comment "hundred have died"?
Open to read more about this.
Like I said, these deaths are not being recorded. Do you know what a pushback is? It's by definition illegal, so there won't be any records. Also the deaths happen on the belarussian side of the border, which is even worse with keeping track of anything.
The whole polish side of border has been cordoned off by the army for over two years now, they harass and stop journalists and volunteers from accessing the border. There will never be any data.
EDIT: so many downvotes. Either people don't want to hear the truth or its NAFO brigading again.
Thanks for the link.
I totally agree. Human lives are human lives. People trying to escape abuse for a better life are just as innocent as anyone else.
Exactly. Poland itself is pretty damn far-right, and while they might be helping Ukraine and Ukrainians, this doesn't mean their government is not borderline fascist. Someone else below (@TimeNaan@lemmy.world) provided this link documenting some severe human rights abuses against lots of migrants (some of these are also from the Belarus side too, it's not just Poland).
Any situation in which a state denies access to people watching for such abuses - like this - is one that sends immediate and severe warning signs to me. Combined with the other stuff going on around LGBT+ free zones, well, it's worrying imo >.<
Some of this stuff is even worse than what I've heard of the US/Mexico border, though it's all pretty horrific.
Thank you. It's nice to see someone who can see through the bias. Human rights are for everyone, not just EU residents.
I don't give a fuck about your considerations either. Our border our rules. Also lol'd at "killing". If anyone died there it was because of their own stupidity of trying to cross it from Belarus which isn't a war torn country but they didn't want safety but rather monies from western Europe.
The absolute contempt for human life and dignity in this comment :/
Its my border too. Jebać pis, policję i straż graniczną.
i ciebie xD
As much as I would love that to happen, this is basically a death wish
I mean, Putin killing Prigozhom basically signaled none of them are safe. At this point if you are going to die falling out of the sky or die raiding Moscow, the latter might have a higher chance of survival.
If only Prigozhin had had more of a spine, he might still be alive and much better off besides.
Which is why I fully support it and hope they take out Putin in the process. Mutual annihilation of the top level leaders on both sides would be best for everyone, including for the Russian people themselves.
Dumb asses, quiet sabotage would get you get you so much further, especially if you can figure out how to signal out and communicate with each other. Hey maybe I'm underestimating them and this is a feint to distract from something but big doubt.
Agigatedpotato has toppled countless government. He needs to be heard
Just thinking like Im a soldier who wants to avenge my commander who I'm presuming was killed for his very public soft coup attempt, and I just think I would probably rather avoid planning my own very public soft coup.
They'd be more effective taking over Belarus if they really want to cause Putin problems.
I am so sorry about this. But how much integrity can a mercenary army have? I mean what's point in fighting for your ex-employer? If you ask me there is no way they can actually rile-up that many mercenaries to do any significant damage. (but would love to hear other peoples thoughts)
This is how a gang operates. It's all about consensus building by braggadocio. Someone says they're going to do something, and sees if enough others join them. Then they threaten the person who is their rival based on the number of people behind them. Unfortunately for the wagner fellows who proposed this, they don't have anywhere near enough backing them to get putin to back down. They're fucked.
they have no heavy equipment - they gave up everything from mortars up after coup attempt, so no AD, no tanks, no artillery, no nothing. manpower left in russia was slurped up by army, these left in belarus have only rifles, tents and civilian trucks and were evicted lately. they ain't doing shit and it's only dumb posturing on telegram
Flight attendant Kristina Raspopova, 39, told her relatives of the unexplained hold-up, indicating that the aircraft was being “repaired” before the flight, according to VChK-OGPU Telegram channel.
Sounds like something I’d do if I wanted to plant a bomb for insurance, js.
Not going to happen. They've lost their heavy weaponry, their leadership and they've been split across Belarus and the regular Russian army.
Wagner had the elements of surprise and momentum, what they didn't do was announce their intentions before invading fucking Russia and start taking things over while shooting the shit out of anyone in their way, so I rate this story 100% bullshit
His followers are just looking to die by missile like there great leader
If this really happens then it'll be a popcorn-worthy event. Let's you and him fight.
"Do it! Just do it!"
If Wagner stops getting paid wouldnt Russia lose its entry into Africa and other countries Wagner works in?
I wonder if they only get paid at the end of their contract.
If they actually do it then that might be the case.
While i certainly wouldn't rule it out, this are just unconfirmed rumors. I wouldn't get too hopeful.
They are rumors that Putin has to take seriously.
I mean I temporarily wish them luck. Any damage to Putin is a good thing.
I was wondering if that would happen. Hopefully whomever or whoever, if it's multiple people, are organizing Wagner at this point have more of a spine than their former erstwhile leader. Because they know the likely consequences now if they fail, since just letting bygones be bygones isn't a thing with Putin and the KGB.
So Wagner needs to go all out. And hopefully they do.
I wish them the best of luck. Not that they have any chance of success but the more damage they cause to the Russian army, the better
Was there actually anything stopping them before, other than some traffic cops with a grenade launcher, and some excavator operators frantically digging up the motorway?
No, but they chickened out and now Putin has had a month to set up defenses
Military equipment in Russia protecting Putin is military equipment that can't be used to attack Ukraine, so this is still a win.
Especially if Wagner manages to destroy some or a lot of them.
And if they don't, their own equipment is destroyed which also belongs to Russia.
Putin lost his corn flakes.
It was a bad idea to begin with. Putin would and did flee to his bunker and then have to endure a siege on Moscow after that... There is no way they win a siege against the Russian army, in Moscow.
Yea but at least he would have died fighting. Now he died for nothing lol
Died fighting whom? The Russian populace that he seems to support, and are apathetic at worst towards him? It's not like Putin himself was going to lead the siege charge on horse back carrying an AK or something.
Wagner group doesn't have any air assets, the Air Force probably could annihilate them on the way to Moscow. Not much cover in Russia
Well that did not work so well the first time. No idea if they still have any anti air capacity though.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/26/wagner-group-shot-down-seven-russian-aircraft-coup-attempt/
not anymore, they had to give up all heavy equipment
The Russian Air Force sucks absolute balls at CAS. Apart from their general systemic issues, they don’t train for CAS, and it shows in Ukraine. Also, when Wagner tried to bum-rush Moscow the first time, pilots who actually attempted CAS missions didn’t do so well - there are several videos of them trying to airstrike Wagner positions and columns where the Russian pilots are not even close to putting munitions on-target effectively.
Wagner even shot down one Russian helicopter.
Wagner did manage to take down quite a few Russian air units in a short period of time before.
Whether that was due to lack of organization and command among the Russian military because of the surprise of Wagner's actions is up for debate, but I guess we might get to see how that turns out this time around.
https://www.businessinsider.com/wagner-prigozhin-took-down-7-russia-helicopters-plane-rebellion-ukraine-2023-6?op=1
They have decent aa, they were brutal on Russian jets.
Anti-aircraft is different than air assets I get it that both are AA but I meant an air assets not anti-aircraft. 👍
Same could have been said for their day trip. And that saw several helicopters and a couple of fixed wing aircraft getting knocked out the sky.
You forget that Russia had some garbage trucks lined up as well 🧱
We call them tactical landfill launchers.
I wonder if Putin will try destroying the roads to Moscow again.
And run away to hide in St. Petersburg
FSB as an organization needs to die to the man before anything good can happen in Russia.
Not all personnel. Top 1 - 3, maybe.
Wouldn’t they have a better chance if Biden funded them?
I hope that you realize at some level how batshit insane that idea is.
Oops, All Taliban!™️
Perhaps, but that sounds like it would backfire pretty much immediately.
Yeah we've already tried shit like that 20 or 30 times, we do eventually learn our lesson.
Considering they're arguably even worse than Putin, we probably don't want them to actually have a chance at being successful, it's just that any forces Russia has to use to stop them are forces they aren't using in Ukraine. Giving them funding would be a seriously bad move.
If Biden funds them Biden funds a direct attack on Russia, due to the increased pressure Russia will take that as an attack from the US and will escalate. We want to deescalate everything we can because we don’t know if putin will use his nukes, and if he does the world ends. Putin will not win a war with the us though, so he may not care about the end of the world.
Every near nuclear war has been averted by Russian officers. The dude on the sub near Cuba and the other dude who realised that the USA hadn't launched nukes, it was their computer system falsely alerting.
100% success rate so far!
Sure so far, but a direct order from Putin directly after killing the last man who crossed him? If it came to it he would launch everything he’s got because anything not launched gets destroyed by mutually assured destruction, so every single Russian officer would have to refuse to launch. And it only takes one launch to be devastating and trigger a complete reaction from the US as our anti-Russian propaganda is still strong.
I doubt propaganda has any bearing on the choice to react. Because you know at that point it is shooting back?
While it is shooting back, it’s also the end of the world. It’s very possible the people would not fire back and instead just let America die for the sake of the world. The propaganda makes them feel like they are “just shooting back” and they will.
Its the end of the world once 3 of these weapons (if cold war literature is to be believed) go off as it will plunge the world into an ash winter. And as far as I am aware no nation fires less then 6 at a time. It would be the end of the world and no amount of propaganda changes that. No one in their right mind would hold off pulling that trigger against an entity they know just killed everyone they knew.
Oh and the UK would be the one most likely targeted by russia not the US. They have been threatening to for over a year: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2022/05/03/russia-just-threatened-to-destroy-ireland-and-britain-with-a-nuclear-tsunami/?sh=6eade8dc32b6
https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/05/04/rattling-nuclear-saber-what-russia-s-nuclear-threats-really-mean-pub-89689
Why would you believe Cold War literature? Propaganda influenced everything. And also the UK would not be the main target if it is America pretty much directly engaging Russia as this suggests. They need those defense dollars to quit coming towards them. And america is its own continent, if Russia was to launch all they could at America and America just sat there and took it it might end life on North America and permanently ruin South America due to fallout, but the rest of the world would survive although it would never be the same.
Well it was not American literature...... What is with everyone and the US?
Because the US is historically the most powerful long-lasting nation. The ussr was competitive but they fell, and china is a very very new power. It also doesn’t matter if it was American literature because the Cold War and its associated propaganda was of interest to most countries as their fate was tied to neither doing anything as well.
I take it you are American then?
Because a few empires would have some issue with that first statement "historically".
nukes were never on the table. putin's goal number one is holding power in russia, and it's no fun when it's all shiny glass or when you're dead. the reason behind invasion? believe it or not, also holding more power within russia. over two decades of putin's presidency, he carefully molded his electoral base to consist of nationalists, and every time he invaded another country his ratings went up (2008, georgia, 2014, donbas, 2022, ukraine, at least initially) because even if your elections are faked, you need it to be believable and you need to have some real support. that's even how he got presidency in the first place, by initiating second chechen war
in this situation, what options putin does have?
the only survivable option for putin seems to keep intensity at this level or lower, try to limit western aid, and try to slowly grind through to whatever propaganda objective he wants. remember all these russian threats, that if west provides whatever equipment, they will use nuukes! it seems that everyone called bluff on this one, multiple times. conversely, the more favourable scenario for ukraine is escalation. more info here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWKGYnO0Jf4 https://yt.artemislena.eu/watch?v=fWKGYnO0Jf4
Here is an alternative Piped link(s): https://piped.video/watch?v=fWKGYnO0Jf4
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I'm open-source, check me out at GitHub.
For everyone just tuning in: This show is notorious for having bad season finales.
Did J.J. Abrams write?
Not enough lens flares.
Behind the Bastards has an episode about Jim Caviezel, and in it they discussed several anonymous and one non anonymous retelling of working with the man. If the allegations are to be believed, he kept being worse and worse not understanding his characters motivations, and they had to adjust some stuff to stop him ruining the show. They mention him doing stuff like actually harming other actors/stunt doubles if he was doing action scenes, a desire to just kill and shoot up enemies, and being really bad later on about following the script.
I loved that show, had no idea of anything about the actor behind John Reese. Just read some articles and he sounds like a right nutter.
The podcast QAnon Anonymous has an episode about the same topic, also quoting three people who worked on the show. It's glorious, Irecommend it wholeheartedly.
https://archive.org/details/episode-143-jim-caviezel-enter-the-cavortex-featuring-dave-anthony-dollop-podcast
You know, I listened to that too, so it's possible I'm mixing them up. Both talked about him but the quotes may have come from QAA and maybe I just mixed it up in my head.
As someone who viewed Person of Interest down to the last episode, this was a series that started strong, followed with a solid 2nd season and at this point it was like watching two series at once, one taking in consideration the roots of the story, the other written by a teenager fan group, wanting to turn up the dial for more intrigue.
The way it ended was a coup de grace, more than anything.
Having not finished any of these shows I'm unsure of if the format is telling me they have good endings or not. I'm guessing not but I heard Fringe and POI are great.
Directed by M Night something something
M Night Shenanigans
he had help from m knight
I hate how they just kill important characters offscreen.
The old comic book rule of 'no body no death' might come into play
I hope they don't clone the imperator.
Take it with a grain of salt, people, none of the trustworthy sources confirmed any of that - just a couple of Ukrainian outlets (understandable as psyop) and, well, yahoo news and the like.
As a Russian living in Russia and, obviously, closely following all the shit show, it does not seem like Wagner is going to do anything.
Then again, I'm not sure about shit after 24 Feb 2022.
I am curious if you think Putin will allow Wagner Corp to continue operating as it has, or if they will all now fall under his direction. And if it's the latter, will they be paid and who will be writing the check?
PREFACE: Prior to 24 Feb 2022, I was really skeptical that Putin would start the war at all, though, so I might be really wrong here - I'm no expert, just a regular rusky Ivan with some opinions. Things in Russia aren't really predictable at the moment.
Unfortunately, all the tax-payers - remember, the government has no money of its own, only the money of its citizen and tax residents.
Judging by the mutiny in June, I think the mercs will receive offers to join the regular military as contractors or something along these lines. The PMC itself will be probably be manipulated into control one way or another, either via a direct acquisition or some other scheme, all in attempt to smother the beast Putin himself had created.
Then again, Putin is not a smart guy people make him out to be - he's very prone to mistakes, especially after 20+ years of constant ass-licking from the various abundant yes-men (and the assassinations of the no-men). Look no further than the various regional battalion he's ordered to conjure, which is supposed to be carried out by the governors, essentially creating local not-so-private militaries. Sure, they're not mercs and really far from being experienced combatants with all the subsequent traumas like the Wagner mercs are, and most likely have way less sense of freedom and lawlessness because they hadn't lived that lifestyle before (and won't know), but it still is an armed group of people that is deliberately put into some separate division based on their region - civil war isn't any near now, but dividing armed people into areas rather than just putting everyone in the same military power is not a good idea, especially not in the situation Russia finds itself in.
All that being said, the most important point is the following: Russia as a governmental entity has been very carefully engineering a society with as few leaders as possible, and succeeded well enough to make sure that our people just don't really act on their desires and urges to protest en masse and for long; while it's one thing for us, civilians, who aren't armed, aren't hardened by combat, aren't used to real violence, the Wagner mercs aren't really taught to be free-thinking individuals either, so even if they all want to storm Kremlin, I just don't see that happening unless a figure powerful enough to lead them emerges.
That's what I would do if I were Putin. I would basically dissolve the Wagner charter or whatever the equivalent is in Russia. I would then have a "skills interview and test" (loyalty test) and give the most loyal a pay bump and a promotion, even if in title only. I would basically make everyone an independent contractor so they all get paid different rates and have different performance incentives based off their role. That would basically ensure that they stay loyal to you, as they would be way less likely to join forces if everyone thinks they are special and better then the next guy.
Then if the regular military catches wind of anyone's pay, you can just say "they are an elite squad, some get paid more due to hazard pay"
This is fascinating and the first I have heard of this. You clearly speak English well, do you have an English source I can read more about this?
I don't want to sound mean, but that sounds like a massive overcomplication from Putin's side. To me, what you're saying seems to make sense, but you and I are not Putin - I think neither of us is a narcissistic psychopath that's been killing people en masse for at least a couple of dozen years. What makes sense to you or me might not necessary make any bit of sense to Putin - we wouldn't have seen this war play out, nor the Crimea annexation, nor even Euromaidan, because without Putin's egoistic attempts to control Ukraine via proxies (Yanukovich and the entire war in Donbass being the prime example) or directly.
If we start talking about this from positions of common sense, we'll simply go back so far back in time that it's just easier to assume that everyone would be better off without Putin as a whole in the first place, from the very beginning.
First of all, thank you! It's probably my most cherished skill - really did open a lot of opportunities in my life in many ways. Not really sure I wouldn't be rooting for Putin if it wasn't for English leading me to more liberal places, first outside the Russian internet, then - interestingly enough - inside the Russian internet and Russia itself.
As for the English sources, I'm afraid I can't recommend anything. Things I know and share are mostly courtesy of the Russian-native sources of various kind, complied in my mind over years and years of discourse.
Since links to other social media sites are forbidden by the rules here, I'll leave a few easily-searchable sources below. Keep in mind that none of them are native English speakers, but all have their content readily available in English one way or another. It's not as easy as I'd love it to be to share with you, but it's the best sources I could think of to share with someone outside Russia, helping them understand what's actually going on.
I really appreciate you taking the time to write all this out!
I wouldn't know what questions to even ask without first going through and watching the videos from what you posted.
I guess my own questions right now would be about technology and access to information.
Like how difficult is it to use the internet in Russia? Have you traveled internationally to have something to compare it to? I heard a lot of people use VPNs, do they worry a lot about being caught? What can't you do without a VPN?
I am also curious if you consume any western media, and if so what are your favorite and least favorite outlets. I am also curious what western sources have seemed the most accurate to you about Russia in general, if any at all.
I'll believe it when I see it.
Honest at this point I wouldn't even blink if Prigozhin popped up in the future to tell us they faked their deaths.
To be clear, I believe that he's dead (and that it was probably an assassination by Putin), but so many other outrageous things have happened already little surprises me.
That's the first thing I thought when I heard about his death. He should have known that Putin would likely want him dead, so pretending to board a plane that gets shot down is a pretty good way to fake your death. Does he use his fake death to plot revenge or to escape, never to be heard from again?
Who knows if Putin even wanted him dead. It could be a way for him to step out of the spotlight and let Putin show what happens to those who disobey. They have a huge issue with deserters.
I wouldn't be surprised if they were found eating kaviar off each others nibbles.
Putin wanted him dead without a doubt. He challenged Putin's authority and marched his forces on Moscow. The Wagner group made Putin look like a scared little bitch, which he probably is in real life, so he's insecure about it.
Both sides are violent oligarchs that murder people for profit and power. I'll quote Clarence Darrow here:
“One reason why we don’t kill is because we are not used to it. I never killed anybody, but I have done just the same thing. I have had a great deal of satisfaction over many obituary notices that I have read. I never got into the habit of killing. I could mention the names of many that it would please me if I could read their obituaries in the paper in the morning,”
Sure they probably would kill each other just for fun, but they were also allies until this.
It's about money. They're mercenaries. If they don't get paid, they'll bite the hand that feeds them. That's likely why they marched to Moscow. So Prigizhin got paid and they turned around. But what now? Prigozhin has the money. Suddenly dies. Did his mercenaries get paid? Dead men don't pay bills. There's no hand to bite. The mercenaries were prisoners before they joined Wagner. It's unlikely that neither Putin or Prigozhin gives a fuck about them.
If you ask me, it's really fucking convenient for both Putin and Prigozhin to fake his death right about payday.
I did not ask for this mental image today
I'd hoped he piloted a Kamikaze plane into Putin's card fortress so both of them could go to hell to meet Hitler whom they admired so much
At this point it's such a clown show that I wouldn't be surprised by much.
Prigozhin was thought dead from a plane crash before and arrived 2 days later.
Fucken do it then
I'd believe it when I see it. It's not going to happen.
We all saw what happened last time. Someone got cold feet and then became a pussy.
Doubtful. They are mercenaries and won't be getting paid anymore. Mercenaries have no allegiance to anybody.
Just because the leader was presumably killed, doesn't mean they stop getting paid. Do you get fired from your job if your boss dies?
If your boss is the CEO and owner, maybe yeah.
If your boss was the one that had connections with the client, then maybe eventually yeah.
Yeah, was gonna say. A CEO dying doesn't stop the paychecks in a normal company, but if the CEO was murdered by the company's only client...
I know of two small ? (Not sure what the cutoff is) businesses and payroll would stop if they died. They would be paid eventually as the companies have assets, but it would take a while for them to pick up the pieces. Basically for one of them their lead saleswoman would have to assume the role and teach herself basically everything he was doing. Instead of hiring HR/AP/Etc. he outsourced everything to programs and other companies other than sales, design and production. I honestly don't know if the company would survive if he died, which is sad because the lead saleswoman is his wife.
They're in the hire of Russia, do you imagine Russia is going to pay them to march on Moscow
If they aren't getting paid, might that instigate some revolt as well?
And who do you suppose is paying them? Putin?
Idk about that one, they're employed by Wagner, Wagner is essentially the business entity that allows them to operate as a mercenary group. Who knows how much loyalty they have to their own command structure? If I were the owner of a private Merc army, I would try to instill as much loyalty as I can so they don't turn on me.
He's just saying things that sound nice in his head but have no basis in reality.
Nothing he wrote is controversial.
-Mercenaries get paid.
-Mercenaries as a group don't hold allegiance to a country
-Mercenaries don't like not getting paid.
I didn't say it was 'controversial', just inaccurate. There's no controversy about it.
What makes you think military members are more loyal to their nation than mercenaries? Heck, one of my most upvoted responses says "Wagner was more gungho about the war in Ukraine than the military."
For a lot of mercenaries, the military doesn't go far enough or give them the freedom to shape the nation how they want.
Literally everything you said can also be said about soldiers, and in most cases it would be more accurate.
I mean, that's not entirely true. Some mercenaries actually have allegiance to their companies and really care about their goals.
You'd actually be way more accurate talking about soldiers in the state's military than mercenaries.
This is historically ignorant. Before professional armies, mercenaries would literally have their camps set up in a country that hired them, only to turn and ransack a nearby town after an enemy spy came in and paid them more to do it. Western society literally invented professional armies because of mercenaries.
Even if it's true...what does that change? I mean, bobman said that some mercenaries have alliegance to their companies. Not countires, companies. So mercs from Wagner have alliegance to Wagner Group, not Russia.
https://piped.video/watch?v=XTOco33mzDw
I'd recommend watching this
You're comparing apples to oranges.
Oranges? What does Trump have to do with this?
It could be a move to force Putin to pay them off now they are masterless.
I'm sure there would be lots to loot, or taking ownership of profitable ex government corporations...
March on Moscow 2, Electric Boogaloo.
2 March 2 Mercenary
...: St. Petersburg Grift
It would be so ironic if the plane crash was entirely an accident and not planned in any way, but no one believes it because of Putins history. And if they kill him for something he wasn’t actually involved in because of his past crimes ruining his credibility it would be oh-so-sweet
The 'tator that cried wolf.
Here we go again.
It will end not differently than last time.
When they had their leader, they might have had a chance to taking down Putin. Maybe. Slim chance, but a chance. Now they are fucked.
Still would be nice to put a hurt on the Russian military.
Any military units they manage to destroy is good for the rest of the world.
Not necessarily, because (I suspect) less soldiers Putin have more he would be willing to press that red button.
We can't change that regardless and can't forever cower under every threat Putin makes. Unless we just want to make him dictator of the world.
Appeasement never works, we should have learned that by now, but we need to make it clear.
Putin's unwillingness to push the red button is due to it resulting on every single nation in the World including China turning against him and Russia if he did do that (because if the first nation to use nukes offensivelly isn't examplarily punished for it, every nation in the World will rush to become nuclear capable - if only for self defense - which funilly enough flattens the capability of the giants such as China to push the little ones around hence even if only because of that they're against it) and likely Russia, he himself and his family ending up nuked sooner or later.
If there is one thing the Invasion of Ukraine has taught us is that if he thinks get away with it and end up better from doing it, no matter how evil. Putin will do it or have somebody do it for him.
Does Putin seem reasonable to you? I think it's pretty possible that he will be willing to take the whole world to the grave with him.
Absolutelly - so far he seems to be rational.
Not necessarily wise, certainly not morally upright (quite the opposite), but yeah, absolutelly rational.
He started a war to conquer territory and resources, likely based on certain expectations of capability of the Russian Military which were far from realistic as well as expectations on the Ukranian Military and Society which were also far fromrealistic. He went for a decapitation attack expecting Zelenskyy to be killed, captured or flee but none of that happenned and thus the "easy way" failed. From there onwards, as a dictator who has anchored his authority on an image of "strong man", we couldnt simply back down so everything that has been happenning since has been him trying to ideally gain something out of a bad situation or at least not to lose face.
All pretty rational. Not exactly strategically intelligent but certainly rational.
As for the use of nukes, notice how the ever increasing talk about using it from the russian authorities maybe a year ago suddenly stopped (except for fringe types and well known powerless russian muppets) when China made it very clear they would have to do something about it if Russia used those...
Even a strategically inept but rational actor can't miss the implications of China turning against Russia.
In hindsight, all he had to do was setup an assination squad before mobilizing troops in 2022. Had he killed Zelensky before the real fighting happened I think the country would have been very demoralized and it would have been much harder for them to get aid with a new leader, even if it wasn't a Russian plant.
And the more gains that they would have made earlier on, the less likely the West would have been to send aid, less it fall into the hands of Russia or some new corrupt politician.
Without the aid, Russia would have already won by now.
Apparently he did try it, several times, after the invasion started.
I suspect that in Putin's mind, before Zelenskyy revealled himself as a real leader ("I don't need a lift, I need ammo"), he was nothing more than a week "western-style politician" and comediant who would easilly fold.
It's very easy with hindsight to say he should've tried to take him out beforehand but at the time he (or, lets be honest, any of us, even the US President) really didn't know Zelenskyy's character: for all he knew back then, killing Zelenskyy might've just be taking out a weaker man and end up with a stronger man leading the Ukranian Government only by then Putin's hand would've been revealed.
Sure, it makes sense now, but back then knowing what he knew then, for Putin it clearly did not.
Again, it's like failure to do even the most basic research. He had all sorts of plants in Ukraine in before all this started, it would have been relatively easy to have spies to a character assessment. Just like I really don't understand why he wouldn't have done an equipment specification before moving all this equipment with dry rot and other failures. He had to have known that the everyone was skimming at best, and straight out stealing at worst.
Considering that even the US' intelligence failed to spot Zelenskyy's character as a war leader, I think we should be wary of proclaiming that the russian's could've find it out with "the most basic research"...
In fact people often don't really know if they'll rise to the occasion in such a life and death situation themselves until faced with it.
As I said, it's easy to look at it now and think "it was obvious", but that's due to hindsight.
What was rational in this war?
He wanted territory, mineral resources and even human resources (lots of industrial production in the territories Russia took) and expected the mighty Russian Army would crush the Ukranian Army (just like when they took Crimea) and the rest of the World wouldn't do much more than bitching & moaning (again, just like when Russia took Crimea). Apparently he was even expecting his men would be welcomed by the ukranians with open arms (remember how the head of Russian Intelligence was fire not long after the war started because of that?!) and that the rest of Europe could be controlled via Economic Pressure because of its dependency on Russian Gas.
It makes all sense that having overestimated the Russian Army and underestimated the Ukranian people and its Army as well as the will of the West to genuinelly help Ukraine (and looking at all the pussyfooting around providing modern jets and long range missiles to Ukraines, I would say that at least partially that's true), it looked like a good idea to begin with.
Once commited, given the style of leader he portrays himself as and the overreliance on nationalism to control the russian people, he was stuck with the Ukranians pushing back with western help and unwilling to give up and being politically unable to just conced the War as that would be almost literaly putting his neck on the block.
Then they'd have no soldiers
My Russian friend pointed out to me that Prigozhin was actually on his way to see Putin when he got shot down.
So they all went in one plane...
Yeah that part makes no sense, how dumb do you have to be to put the two main leaders in the same fucking plane flying near the capital
Russia hasn't been known for great decision making in recent years
Recent? I was watching a video about the USSR losing a whole bunch of their top generals because the idiots went on the same plane to some meeting. They used this little trip for some personal shopping. They bought a lot much stuff and it was improperly secured in the aircraft so it shifted during takeoff dooming them all.
Who knows what Putin told them to get them to visit him? "All is forgiven & I want you to run the ministry of defense".
I guess they thought no one would blow them up in public 😑
I mean let the fascist kill the fascist ig
instagram??
I guess
Yeah, me too. Must be instagram then.
As long as they’re not killing Ukrainians, then I guess yeah, go do whatever…
They should join up with the Ukrainians.
No, in this case the enemy of their enemy is just another enemy.
Not really, if they join forces.
Wagner most definitely cannot be trusted.
Nah, they were even more gung-ho about the invasion than regular Russians.
My question is who is going to pick up the tab for these mercs? I can't see Putin doing it himself, as he wouldn't want to set precedent... but they are spoiled. I would assume it will be bad for Russia if they don't keep the money flowing.
The Kremlin has been paying for Wagner from the beginning. Wagner has always belonged to Putin. It's mercenary status has just been a mechanism of plausible deniability.
The best-trained ones might get onto the Russian military payroll if the Kremlin is smart and wants to retain some of its most battle-hardened troops.
CIA: hold my beer
This is a greater overall danger than many of you seem to realize. Their leader was a face and figurehead, the real power of Wagner mercenaries lies with the lieutenants. Without him, they are likely to splinter and become more brutal. Some are likely to be hired by the anti-Putin oligarchs, while others may align with Putin. This may result in Russia having to pull out of Ukraine, but that's not the end of this. Even if Putin is slammed out of power, that just results in an internal power struggle with deadly consequences. Those will not stay inside their borders.
Woohoo unstable country with huge nuclear stockpile.
Is the nuclear stockpile as good as the military equipment they use in Ukraine?
There only needs to be 1 functional one for it to kill thousands or even millions
It takes a lot to launch a nuke and land it accurately. I'm guessing Russia lost that ability years ago and they know it hence the sable rattling.
I don't know though my instinct says you're overstating the complexity. Doesn't really need to "land accurately" so much as detonate above any target population. Could just even be conventional ordinance with a nuclear payload.
I know it's not simple. Many things need to work in a certain way so they need to be maintained. Batteries must be replaced, systems must be tested frequently and security is very high. This is all expensive and knowing how cheap Russia is and lax their maintenance is, I'm betting many components were stolen which makes a success lunch much less likely.
Russians have been successfully launching Soyuz rockets longer than Americans have been launching space shuttles.
One has nothing to do with each other though did you hear they just lost their Moon lander?
Soyuz rockets do not sit in a stockpile for 40 years without maintenance before being launched.
Ask the Reddit brigade that got shelled to death back when the war first broke out.
All true, but it does not depend on this specific group of folks or the inciting incident of their leader's death. Violent internal power struggle spilling across borders is practically guaranteed no matter who the actors are. Even if Putin lives a long life and dies of natural causes, that's coming.
You know you can embed this by using
!()[link text goes here]like:or by downloading it and uploading it:
Thanks, I thought my app would convert it into an embed link automagically. I’ll edit my comment.
Hmm. It didnt work. Weird.
Sorry I got the braces backwards. It should be
Ah so just like reddit, but with a ! in front. Cool, thanks for the tip!
It auto completes incorrectly, for it to work you have to include "Image" in the parentheses
And yes it has to be capitalized
Thanks for the tip! Finally got it to work.
No prob, for more mardown help:
https://join-lemmy.org/docs/users/02-media.html
Sweet, I was wondering how that was done.
Thank you Ding Dong 🙏
God I hope they go through with this.
They won't. This isn't a card you can play twice, and UK.news.yahoo.com isn't any kind of reliable news source.
It's sourced from the Evening Standard, but that's not much better.
because it went so well before
It actually did. They only stopped because he made a deal with Putin. They covered hundreds of kilometers in hours.
That IS successful to that point. They were just so f*cking stupid, they thought Putin wouldn't kill them anyways for the betrayal... If he had even 1/6th of a functional brain, he should've realized the MOMENT he abandoned his orders in Ukraine, it was him or Putin.
The less wagnerites operating on Ukrainian soil the better. The less wagnerites helping illegal migrants to cross Polish-Belarusian border the better. The less wagnerites the better.
Fuck wagner but also fuck the polish border guards for murdering migrants.
I dont give a fuck if they're considered "legal" or not - they deserve to be treated like refugees not like a political pawn for both sides.
https://euvsdisinfo.eu/report/polish-border-guards-killed-thousands-of-illegal-migrants looks like the 'but also' is disinformation
Just because they aren't "hunting them down" doesn't mean they aren't responsible for their deaths. They have killed them by way of pushbacks, keeping them in the cold and stopping volunteers from helping them. Hundreds have died and have not been recorded while they wash their hands of this abuse.
Poland's government is extremely racist and xenophobic and used the migrants as an easy way to rile up its supporters, while portraining them as "lukashenka's hordes".
Just because something doesn't ally with NATO narrative doesn't mean it's disinformation.
Where is the data supporting your comment "hundred have died"? Open to read more about this.
Like I said, these deaths are not being recorded. Do you know what a pushback is? It's by definition illegal, so there won't be any records. Also the deaths happen on the belarussian side of the border, which is even worse with keeping track of anything.
The whole polish side of border has been cordoned off by the army for over two years now, they harass and stop journalists and volunteers from accessing the border. There will never be any data.
Link
EDIT: so many downvotes. Either people don't want to hear the truth or its NAFO brigading again.
Thanks for the link.
I totally agree. Human lives are human lives. People trying to escape abuse for a better life are just as innocent as anyone else.
Exactly. Poland itself is pretty damn far-right, and while they might be helping Ukraine and Ukrainians, this doesn't mean their government is not borderline fascist. Someone else below (@TimeNaan@lemmy.world) provided this link documenting some severe human rights abuses against lots of migrants (some of these are also from the Belarus side too, it's not just Poland).
Any situation in which a state denies access to people watching for such abuses - like this - is one that sends immediate and severe warning signs to me. Combined with the other stuff going on around LGBT+ free zones, well, it's worrying imo >.<
Some of this stuff is even worse than what I've heard of the US/Mexico border, though it's all pretty horrific.
Thank you. It's nice to see someone who can see through the bias. Human rights are for everyone, not just EU residents.
I don't give a fuck about your considerations either. Our border our rules. Also lol'd at "killing". If anyone died there it was because of their own stupidity of trying to cross it from Belarus which isn't a war torn country but they didn't want safety but rather monies from western Europe.
The absolute contempt for human life and dignity in this comment :/
Its my border too. Jebać pis, policję i straż graniczną.
i ciebie xD
As much as I would love that to happen, this is basically a death wish
I mean, Putin killing Prigozhom basically signaled none of them are safe. At this point if you are going to die falling out of the sky or die raiding Moscow, the latter might have a higher chance of survival.
If only Prigozhin had had more of a spine, he might still be alive and much better off besides.
Which is why I fully support it and hope they take out Putin in the process. Mutual annihilation of the top level leaders on both sides would be best for everyone, including for the Russian people themselves.
Sounds good either way to me.
Let them fight.
Even this much talk about it is probably going to see more of their organizers killed.
Which is why it's put up or shut up time. Though more like put up or die time, really. I wish them luck.
Dumb asses, quiet sabotage would get you get you so much further, especially if you can figure out how to signal out and communicate with each other. Hey maybe I'm underestimating them and this is a feint to distract from something but big doubt.
Agigatedpotato has toppled countless government. He needs to be heard
Just thinking like Im a soldier who wants to avenge my commander who I'm presuming was killed for his very public soft coup attempt, and I just think I would probably rather avoid planning my own very public soft coup.
They'd be more effective taking over Belarus if they really want to cause Putin problems.
I am so sorry about this. But how much integrity can a mercenary army have? I mean what's point in fighting for your ex-employer? If you ask me there is no way they can actually rile-up that many mercenaries to do any significant damage. (but would love to hear other peoples thoughts)
This is how a gang operates. It's all about consensus building by braggadocio. Someone says they're going to do something, and sees if enough others join them. Then they threaten the person who is their rival based on the number of people behind them. Unfortunately for the wagner fellows who proposed this, they don't have anywhere near enough backing them to get putin to back down. They're fucked.
they have no heavy equipment - they gave up everything from mortars up after coup attempt, so no AD, no tanks, no artillery, no nothing. manpower left in russia was slurped up by army, these left in belarus have only rifles, tents and civilian trucks and were evicted lately. they ain't doing shit and it's only dumb posturing on telegram
Sounds like something I’d do if I wanted to plant a bomb for insurance, js.
Not going to happen. They've lost their heavy weaponry, their leadership and they've been split across Belarus and the regular Russian army.
Wagner had the elements of surprise and momentum, what they didn't do was announce their intentions before invading fucking Russia and start taking things over while shooting the shit out of anyone in their way, so I rate this story 100% bullshit
His followers are just looking to die by missile like there great leader
If this really happens then it'll be a popcorn-worthy event. Let's you and him fight.
"Do it! Just do it!"
If Wagner stops getting paid wouldnt Russia lose its entry into Africa and other countries Wagner works in?
I wonder if they only get paid at the end of their contract.
If they actually do it then that might be the case.
While i certainly wouldn't rule it out, this are just unconfirmed rumors. I wouldn't get too hopeful.
They are rumors that Putin has to take seriously.
I mean I temporarily wish them luck. Any damage to Putin is a good thing.
I was wondering if that would happen. Hopefully whomever or whoever, if it's multiple people, are organizing Wagner at this point have more of a spine than their former erstwhile leader. Because they know the likely consequences now if they fail, since just letting bygones be bygones isn't a thing with Putin and the KGB.
So Wagner needs to go all out. And hopefully they do.
And nothing of value was lost
This is going to fail.
Hell YES!
BRB, making popcorn.
Maybe this is a proxy war fought by AI?