He doesn't have to broaden support to win. Biden just has to lose support.
In 2020, Biden won 81,283,501 to 74,223,975.
But the popular vote doesn't count.
What put him over the top were:
Georgia - 2,473,633 to 2,461,854 = 11,779 votes.
Pennsylvania - 3,459,923 to 3,378,263 = 81,660
Michigan - 2,804,040 to 2,649,852 = 154,188
Wisconsin - 1,630,866 to 1,610,184 = 20,682
Arizona - 1,672,143 to 1,661,686 = 10,457
Biden didn't win by 7,059,526 votes. All those extra votes in places like California and New York didn't count.
He won by 278,766 votes in 5 key states. That's it.
Now, since we aren't pushing hard on vote by mail this year, how many voters do you think will disengage and not vote?
God that’s fucking depressing! Thanks for putting it in perspective.
If it makes you feel better, he killed his own boombooms with his demented policy choices
Biden won because of the youth vote, millennials and gen z out numbered boomers and silent generation for the first time.
But this year he's only up 4 points in the 18-34 demo.
It's fucking insane seeing so many people insisting we can't talk about these issues while there's still time to fix it.
Biden just doesn't want to actually do things that would get him votes. Even something basic like doing interviews, it's like the 2024 Biden campaign is just going to be hiding him in a closet while the media talks about how bad trump would be and all of Bidens aides claim he's a completely different person off camera
I really don't think it will be enough this time. And it's fucking terrifying
Saying things like "Well, they're totally different off camera" sank both Dole and Clinton as well.
Pics or it didn't happen.
Add to that the lack of will to do debates...
Neither are doing primary debates, and there's no way a general debate happens.
We won't see either even attempt to answer a difficult question, and they'll both still fuck up the easy ones.
Biden I get, the sitting President doesn't have to debate.
In Trump's case, he has nothing to gain by it, so that also makes sense.
Once they lock down the candidacy though, there had better be debates.
It's tradition to do 3, last time they only did 2.
I'd be surprised if they do 1, especially if either of them answer a difficult question.
So much shit has been thrown out the window already.
The same youths who helped him win in 2020 will be needed this year. And I'm not 100% sure that a senile moderate is enticing enough to bring out the required votes, even if the other guy is a senile fascist-wannabe.
Don't worry. If young people don't like how Biden is supporting Netanyahu's genocide and moving to the right on immigration, we can just scream abuse at them until November!
Now I can already hear you asking "won't that alienate them and cause them to stay home?" Well, that sounds like something a Russian Chinese tankie Republican shill trumper child moron bot would say.
I dont think they understood your sarcasm
I know they did.
But not voting for him means fucking over lgbt, women, and minorities. Good work! You've made a great statement to the world about who you care about.
There you go. Just keep that up until november.
Just a note that polling of Millenials and younger is known to be wildly inaccurate since we don't follow traditional news media, so extrapolating a sample to a state or national value is functionally guesswork.
This is why polling stated Obama wasn't going to be re-elected and everyone was expecting a big Romney win.
Romney lost once the binders full of women comment happened. Similar to Hillary's deplorables comment.
Keep in mind that it's still February. The election is in November. If he did all of that now, the energy it generates would be worn off by then. Hopefully the strategy is to gear up the campaign in summer.
You're right...
Got to remember Biden is 81 years old and isn't capable of campaigning for a long time...
Surely nothing bad will happen if he waits till the last minute. And it's not like being able to work for 7 months is a constitutional requirement to be president.
/S
Even with the /s, this is insane. Campaigning is all about marketing, and timing is critical in marketing. Christ.
His opponent is currently making appearances while juggling trial dates and is nearly as old. Covid was a good excuse to keep Biden hidden last election, but he's going to have to be much more visible this time.
Yes, everyone knows with a capable, young, intelligent, and capable candidate, the trick is to hide them to the last second as a surprise.
So then hiding Biden has nothing to do with his lack of ability.
This is totally normal!
That's why no one is bothering to talk about the election right now and political stump speeches and advertising doesn't start till Halloween.
Wasn't Biden on Seth myers literally last night?
The unannounced 5 minute part where two celebrities talked about how great he is while he sat there looking at stuff other than the person talking?
So you haven't watched it yet?
He talks about the great agenda he has for 2020, spends most of his time waiting on cues he goes early on, talks about being buddy buddy with the leader of China, and rambles on about how America is the greatest country in the world after saying it's not.
Didn't have any problems with stuttering, but it looked like a video you make with an elderly family member during the holidays to send to everyone that doesn't visit the nursing home.
I refuse to believe anyone watches that shit show and came away confident in Biden.
But yeah, before the post got taken down, I even commented on it how it's more than I thought we'd get, and also makes sense why his campaign team is hiding him.
Which is why you suddenly see all these sockpuppet accounts posting about how bad Biden is.
I have to let this out, and your comment was the trigger. Lucky you.
Three things are pissing me off in this election in particular.
Undecideds. There's supposed to be this huge center (well, 30%) of unaffiliated "undecided" voters. Who TF are these people, who look at the modern Republican party and at Trump, and go: "hmmm. I just don't know. Do I vote for the bland old guy, or the fascist, philandering, traitorous tax-avoiding old guy who's under inditement in several states? I just don't know!"
Primaries. Lots of liberals - myself included - are furious with Biden about his support of Israel in this ethnic cleansing. The primaries should be the place where we can express our displeasure, and is almost the only forum we have to exert (generally) direct electoral pressure. But we can't, because doing so harms Biden's chances in the general election by sowing discord - c.f. the very relevant Bernie Bros, who refused to vote for Hillary even after Bernie threw in with her.
Biden's cabinet. Whoever is in charge of his PR is doing a shit job. I learn more on Lemmy about Biden's accomplishments than I do in the general news. Biden's doing a good job in many areas, but Joe Public doesn't know because Biden's PR staff have their heads up their asses.
It's utterly insane; the electoral college needs to be dumped, there's no doubt about that, and adoption of approval voting, or ranked choice -- almost anything would be better. But even with these issues, the US managed to work for 200 years, until the past few election cycles, and it's just gotten insane.
The undecideds are people who aren't paying attention. It's easy to not be sure who you'll vote for when your opinion is based on whatever stray bits of politics pop up around you despite your best efforts to remain ignorant. And those people are just as likely to run into lies and propaganda, but won't have the knowledge required to spot the inaccuracies.
Most of those votes weren't for Biden though they were against trump. Trump is still trump last I checked so I will vote against him again and hope for the best
All true. In the US, you don't have to win a majority to win the election.
But I highly doubt that Democrats are going to sit this one out.
And if they just show up to the same degree as in 2020, Trump still needs to broaden support in the key swing states to actually win them. If he's not doing it nationally, chances are he's not doing it in the battlegrounds.
But I highly doubt that Democrats are going to sit this one out.
I sense there are a lot of young progressives screaming about "genocide" in Gaza who are going to sit it out, not able to grasp the big picture.
Scare quotes around genocide? Really?
It's questionable whether what is happening in Gaza is genocide from a legal perspective. Regardless, being concerned with Gaza but sitting out this election and not voting is asinine. Biden may not being doing enough to help stop the humanitarian crisis and him in office may not save any lives in Gaza, but I can guarantee Trump in office will get more people killed. Trump will happily use US military resources to flatten Gaza, and brag about it. Claims that Biden is facilitating or supporting genocide in Gaza ultimately benefits Trump and will doom the Gazan Palestinians if Trump gets in office.
questionable whether what is happening in Gaza is genocide from a legal perspective
Firstly, no it isn't. Secondly, resorting to "a legal perspective" so that you can choose the specific definition that makes it technically kinda not qualify if you squint hard enough is a really shitty, bad faith debate tactic. The stated wishes and goals of average, mainstream Israelis is to kill all Palestinians, burn Gaza to the ground, and take it over. That's genocide, plain and simple.
I'm not a legal expert and I doubt you are as well, but if you search the 'net there are plenty of articles from respectable news sources covering debates and discussions over whether it's legally genocide or not. I'm not going to debate it with you; I'll leave it up to those who are qualified to determine if it is truly genocide, and pursue war crimes charges as necessary. I never said it was morally correct what Israel is doing. The morality or lack thereof of their actions is separate from the legal definition of genocide. Furthermore, and quite ironically, the 1988 Hamas Charter specifically states as a goal to obliterate Israel in language that rhymes with genocide. While it certainly doesn't justify what Israel is doing right now, Hamas would be doing the same to Israel right now if it was within their capabilities. Israel could have taken over Gaza long ago, if it really wanted to do it. What's going on right now in Gaza is the result of Hamas launching an offensive with no strategic or worthy goals, against an enemy they knew they had no chance of winning against. It's a pretty good assumption that some portion of the cries of genocide are the result of foreign propaganda to both garner support for Hamas and the continuing disruption and outside influence of US politics.
not a legal expert and I doubt you are as well, but if you search the 'net there are plenty of articles from respectable news sources covering debates and discussions over whether it's legally genocide or not. I'm not going to debate it with you; I'll leave it up to those who are qualified to determine if it is truly genocide, and pursue war crimes charges as necessary. I
That's exactly my point. The "legal definition", if for some reason it doesn't apply, is just an excuse to avoid confronting the atrocities we are complicit in committing. If the "legal definition" isn't met, then it's simply wrong. Some court case isn't what determines whether it's "truly genocide", it's that Israel, with our support, is and has been trying for decades to eradicate an entire people and culture.
a pretty good assumption that some portion of the cries of genocide are the result of foreign propaganda to both garner support for Hamas and the continuing disruption and outside influence of US politics.
I do agree with this, and it's really unfortunate. But yeah, if I was Hamas I would use the fact that Gazans are being genocided to drum up support too, it's a pretty good argument. To avoid creating a situation where Hamas looks like the good guys, I think the best thing to do would be to, you know, stop murdering Palestinian children.
The “legal definition”, if for some reason it doesn’t apply, is just an excuse to avoid confronting the atrocities we are complicit in committing. If the “legal definition” isn’t met, then it’s simply wrong. Some court case isn’t what determines whether it’s “truly genocide”, it’s that Israel, with our support, is and has been trying for decades to eradicate an entire people and culture.
I don't think proving actual genocide is a prerequisite or requirement for bringing war crimes charges and holding people accountable. For example, if in war a military unit/leader/solider executes a group of unarmed civilians, it can be pursued as a war crime as it's intentionally targeting and harming civilians, but executing one group of civilians in this fashion isn't genocide, even if they were a specific race, religious sect, etc. Undoubtedly if there was a pattern of this occurring and there was provable support from leadership, it would be considered genocide. Genocide, like other terms like suicide, homicide, germicide, etc., has a specific meaning. Morality is much more subjective, and hence I'd call Israel's action quite immoral. Israel may indeed want to eradicate Gaza as a territory or political unit, however that doesn't mean it's genocide. Otherwise we could call Russia's desire to eradicate or annex Ukraine genocide. And after I write all this, I realize I'm debating the meaning of genocide. But I digress.
a pretty good assumption that some portion of the cries of genocide are the result of foreign propaganda to both garner support for Hamas and the continuing disruption and outside influence of US politics.
I do agree with this, and it’s really unfortunate. But yeah, if I was Hamas I would use the fact that Gazans are being genocided to drum up support too, it’s a pretty good argument. To avoid creating a situation where Hamas looks like the good guys, I think the best thing to do would be to, you know, stop murdering Palestinian children.
On all this we can agree. I don't want innocent civilians killed, either. I take issue with the term genocide and the way it's being used, especially in the context of the US supposedly "promoting or supporting" genocide. That's simply not true. It's a complicated landscape and as we've been discussing this I see there is a ceasefire being pursued diplomatically by the Biden administration. I think the way the term genocide is being used here and elsewhere cheapens it and compromises the severity and seriousness of the term.
Without vote by mail, they won't show up to the same degree. Trump's vote was driven by in person votes, Biden by vote by mail.
That's not going to be true this year. And like I showed, the margins in those key states is super slim.
Biden can't win without these states and if the election were today?
Whatever the polls say, do you have any idea what a mess the GOP in Michigan is? We're having a primary and two competing caucuses because we have two heads of the state party and they are bankrupt. There is a lawsuit to sell their headquarters to pay their bills. And we came out for abortion rights big time in 22, which Republicans continue to shoot themselves in the fucking head with.
There is zero ground game. I can't believe it's even possible for Trump to win here, polls be damned.
I've been watching and it's absolutely hilarious, none of which is going to impact the general election.
If none of it matters in the general then nothing matters. Money doesn't matter. Organization and unity don't matter. I'm not an expert, but I just don't believe you are correct. For decades I've heard how important ground game is. Heard Hillary's (among others) loss blamed on it.
I just don't see how that can be right.
Hillary didn't just lose because of a lack of "ground game" she lost because of instead of campaigning in states she needed to win, she did a victory lap and only went to states she was already locked in to win.
She took winning for granted and only cared about beating Obama's vote, because she still held a grudge.
The other responder is correct. This is exactly what I was referring to. Why split hairs between a failure of the local party and self-sabotage resulting in no ground game?
I could copy paste what I told them, but it's probably easier for you to just scroll down since it sounds like you already read it
No need, it's just as pointless as it was the first time when you responded to him.
No idea why you responded then, but feel free to keep responding I'll never see them
Hillary didn't just lose because of a lack of "ground game" she lost because of instead of campaigning in states she needed to win, she did a victory lap and only went to states she was already locked in to win.
That's another way of saying "lack of ground game".
Clinton had organizers in Michigan and Wisconsin, but she failed to visit the states personally which voters saw as taking them for granted.
When the election rolled around, they did not.
Which was especially stupid for her given how Wisconsin showed a willingness to vote R in statewide elections over and over. She SHOULD have been there.
You make it sound like something they couldn't do.
Not something they deliberately choose to ignore
That's the difference. Hillary had all the campaign resources and money to win, hell, she took a bunch from senate races thru a fucked up DNC "donor sharing" program.
Then blew all that money traveling Blue states so people would clap for her.
She didn't just fuck up her race, she fucked up the house and senate as well.
Details and specifics matter
it's still too early to call bro polls aren't accurate this far from November bro
They are when you track them over time. In each of these states, support for Trump is growing, not shrinking.
Maybe, maybe not. You sound very confident in Trump. I'm not.
Sure, there's a risk Trump will somehow pull out a win in the electoral college. But I don't think he's the favorite by any stretch of the imagination.
Well, I've been following the polling in these states for several months now and I've watched them go from 1/2 Biden 1/2 Trump, to all Trump by a couple of points, to all Trump by 5 to 6 points.
The momentum is definitely with Trump at this point.
Can he maintain it? Dunno.
Dude, we've all been watching. And everyone knows that it's going to be close. It always is. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to predict that. It's also way too early to conclude anything from polling.
The whole point is following the trend line. If the trend continues, it's important to have been following it as soon as possible.
You can find any trend you want in statistics. The only trend that matters is on election day.
And by the time you can report on that, it's far too late to do anything about it.
It will be people (in a few key states) who refuse to vote for Biden due to purity testing or vote third party who put him in office if it happens.
That is how basically every election has worked for 30+ years. About 40% of people lean republican, 40% democrat, and 20% independent. Campaigns are mostly about getting 100% of your 40% to vote than winning independents or opponents.
Way less people are Republican, but only in pure numbers, which doesn't mean shit when you use the Electoral College (or have 2 senators per state regardless of population, for that matter). The only voters who actually matter for presidents are in the 5 or so states that don't always go red or blue.
We already hit the point decades ago where GOP can't win a federal election without anti democratic institutions like gerrymandering and the electoral college. It needs to be replaced with something actually functional in leading government in policy supporting constituents to compete with DNC. I detest political parties, but the only thing worse than many parties is one party.
Considering current polling, his current level of support is terrifyingly close to enough. If we don't want to face down four more years of Trump, Biden really needs a lot better campaigning than, "I'm not that guy." Sure, it's still early and the predictive power of polls at this stage isn't fantastic. But, it seems like a bad place to be starting from.
Every single day Biden continues to support genocide, the closer I get to not being able to vote for him. Among my friends, I'm the most harm reductionist telling people that when election day comes, we have to do what's best with the choice we have. But I'm starting to become viscerally disgusted at the idea of voting for Biden
And by not voting for Biden, how do you expect the issue you care about is going to be addressed by a Trump administration? I’m in my 50s and have never been a fan of Joe Biden or most of the “centrist” Democratic Party - but you can sure as hell believe I’ll be casting a vote for him in November.
I don't know man. I'm the one who makes this argument. I'll probably still vote Biden on election day, but I want to vomit at the thought of him after seeing him support this.
It's one thing when he is just useless at getting actual shit done. "Nothing will substantially change" is one thing. But if I'm starting to break down on this, then that makes me scared that we are truly fucked
Worst part is that Biden trusts that he can do whatever he wants with supporting genocide because Trump is his opponent. It's an extra 'fuck you' to all of us.
In politics you pick and choose your battles. Biden is a needed stepping stone to get a true progressive in 2028. After 8 years of Obama we almost elected Bernie if it wasn't for the corruption that happened in the primary process. 2028 is the year of progressives.
I’m 100% voting for Biden, as Trump will both destroy US democracy and put the final nail into our species dystopian coffin with both climate change and the further empowerment of the rich. But we may be fucked in the sense that I think Biden is too unpopular in a vacuum(as in separate from Trump) for most voters to get the numbers out. I deeply hope that I am wrong but each thing he does that is semi divisive, let alone everything involving Israel, it gets harder for me to believe he has the ability to engender any enthusiasm for him
I've gone from being unenthusiastic about Biden to actively hating/despising him. To be clear, there is absolutely no world in which I will despise him less than trump. It's one thing to try to get people enthused, it's another when you have to bank on fear of the worse guy.
If he had looked the other way for just a month or two, that'd still be bad but at least we could be like "well it was a complicated situation but he made the right decision". It's almost March and it was already an undeniable and unbearable tragedy by Halloween of last year. I think we extremely close to the point of no return.
I feel that, election is still a long ways off and all kinds of crazy bullshit is bound to happen, but my confidence in his electability is not high. As much as I dread it I’m mentally preparing myself for the worst case scenario.
Jesus even if Biden kicked the bucket, which I’m not hoping for but it is a very real possibility, Kamala doesn’t give me any more peace of mind. Trump stroking out would give me some brief respite but I think Haley would kick the shit out of Biden purely by not being him or Trump, and the GOP would still push most of their insane agenda through if they can.
Things do not look good from my perspective, and I used to be an idealist
This is what people trying to get Trump elected sound like.
LOL Trump is best friends with Netanyahu. Trump will want half of Gaza for himself!
Sockpuppet account
Oh? That's news to me.
I blow off steam one time about being completly dishearted about the government and Biden after watching a video of a service member lighting themselves on fire and yelling free Palestine and I'm a sock puppet? I get it that some people are able to compartmentalize what Biden is doing right now and the criticality of keeping Trump out of office. But I wasn't able to yesterday when I was still reeling. I wanted to truly appreciate Aaron Bushnell's sacrifice, and with that, I did my best to let myself feel the true gravity of the genocide in Israel. Feeling the full weight of it, I feel angry, sad, dishearted, overwhelmed, grief and disgusted.
I'm feeling better today. if the election was yesterday, I'd have abstained. If it were tomorrow, I'd probably still vote blue no matter who.
This is like saying you're not going to vote for Biden because he's white. Or old. Or a capitalist. So is the other guy. There isn't another viable option. Trump has just as bad, if not a worse stance on Palestine, even provoking further conflict by moving the embassy during his tenure. You can't expect any US president to go to war with one of our only two legitimate allies in the region, but Biden's at least trying to broker a ceasefire for hostages.
There's another option. We're just scared to break the glass on the emergency switch. I don't blame you. It is scary.
Stop pretending "bad" and "worse" are our only options. If we wait too long it will be too late.
viable option
If you're too cowardly to face the fact that your "viable" options will lead you into fascism and pull the ripcord, then there is only one "viable option."
Uh huh. You first, internet warrior.
You mean "You first, me never," right?
May you live long with the consequences of your cowardice.
Trump will fucking nuke Gaza if given the chance. He also wants domestic concentration camps. Don't you think for a second there is any comparison between the two. Trump is a monster.
I'll die before voting for Trump (I'm trans so Trump winning well be extremely bad for me). But I'm so discouraged right now that i don't know what to do
[edit] changed a sentence
Dubious methodology says trump in trouble -> upvote
Dubious methodology says Biden in trouble -> downvote to oblivion.
It also highlights a Republican party that has made an about-face on central policy issues, favoring some big government programs and retreating from commitments abroad.
That's a strange take on history. Of course many Republican politicains have said "focus on the homeland" or whatever while voting for wars, so the stated positions aren't really changing, and I don't imagine that Trump would be anti-war anyway. And big government is also a Republican thing. I can point to specific examples, but we all know about them, so why bother?
Anyway, it's hard for politics writers, no doubt, but this is basic historical knowledge. They can do better.
This insane Cheeto chimp is going to win. America is doomed.
Honestly, as the way things are, it doesn’t matter, we’re still doomed. Even if the asshole karks it from one too many hamburgers tomorrow, still doomed.
I already know three people that said they are not voting. THREE, imagine how that translates to the wider population
It could even be as high as FOUR
CRAZY RIGHT. But seriously, three people that I personally know voted for Biden in 2020, now are thinking about not voting? That's a lot. It's also who these people are that gets me, they are your run of the mill city democrats. Not terminally online Twitter followers eating antibiden propaganda.
On the other hand, there are a lot of Republicans, especially moderates and Republican-leaning independents, who are not going to go vote for Trump if he's the nominee.
Yeah, believe it or not, there are moderate Republicans.
I just don't want people to get complacent
People remember Trump and his presidency and the chaos and January 6 and Roe and IVF and much else. If he ends up as the Republican nominee, Democrats and independents won't be complacent.
I mean your sample is not really representative of the entire US population, so who knows what's going to happen. I personally know no one who is not going to vote because, that would just be stupid to not participate in the democratic process.
A person's opinion does not matter if they do not vote, at least to those in power. 200 million people could not vote 'in protest'. Doesn't matter. Just means it's that much easier for a bad candidate to take power and gain more control of the executive, legislative, and judical branches of govt that controls many aspects of our lives.
But what are the chances that one person hangs out with three people who have similar opinions? Sounds impossible if you ask me.
Meanwhile Biden is losing support, so it doesn't matter if trump just stays the same.
Biden only has 4% on Biden in the 18-34 demo, which is a lot more about Biden's inaction than trump.
The danger has never been trump gaining voters, it's that Biden is so shit and ignoring the majority of Dem voters that it might depress turnout so much Trump's base could be enough like it was in 2016.
Imagine knowing why we lost in 2016 and yet- being so willing to repeat it.
People only turn up to vote against something... that's the real problem Biden has. Th old say 'you run using poetry, you govern using prose', is apt. Ironically it'll be the anger over Gaza, that will keep the Democratic base home, and if Trump wins he'll claim half of Gaza for himself.
That's like saying a shit sandwich is the most popular meal, and not mentioning there's nothing else to eat.
Lots of people don't turn up to vote, they want something to vote for.
That's how Obama won red states his first election
We're in an era of populism and people are still trying to use the 2000s era to predict today.
He doesn't need to wide. his base, he just needs to motivate them. He need to to get more people excited about voting for him than Biden does those excited to vote Biden.
It's about turnout and driving a base. He's wiping the floor with Biden right now in the polls. No one is excited to vote Biden. It's not clear to me he even has a base. Instead taking heads are just trying to browbeat any one left of center into supporting Biden. It won't work at scale. Bidens got to do his own work there, because it's not currently Trump in office, it's Biden. Always harder for an incumbent, especially one who has become deeply unpopular with the coalition of voters that out him into office. No amount of blue no matter who is going to fix Biden as a candidate. Only Biden can do that.
Biden and the DNC know that
It's just what excites voters pisses off big money donors. And they picked the side neoliberals are always going to pick.
And they're hoping the threat of trump is enough to scare the serfs into line.
From a psychology perspective, it's a horrible plan. Especially after it has a 50% success rate in the last two elections. 2024 is a coin flip, and it's only because we're using trump as an excuse to run someone who's first presidential primary was 2 generations ago.
Seriously. A person born the year of Bidens first primary could safely be a grandparent for this one. In some red states, a great grandparent already.
He's never been a popular candidate, just had the luck of getting the primary handed to him and getting to face the literal worst president we've ever had the general.
Mean while, blue no matter who out here downvoting like this isn't the case.
Blue no matter who has proven to be a failed strategy in that it leaves you with weak indefensible candidates in competitive elections.
Were probably going to get Trump, and it will be 💯 due to Democrats and the Blue No Matter Who coalition. But just like Hillarys shocking arrogance in 2016, these ass holes will yet again fail to understand that they themselves are the problem.
It's not arrogance ... it's that the voting maps are rigged. Democrats win the popular vote.
Hillary Clinton, was and is, one of the most singularly arrogant politicians to have ever existed.
She opted out of campaigning in the entirety of the rust belt, because it was 'her turn'.
She viewed voters as obligated in voting for her. She was wrong. Dead wrong.
The base of his penis maybe
He's not winning anything with the base of that shrivelled, syphilitic shunt of gristle.
He doesn't have to broaden support to win. Biden just has to lose support.
In 2020, Biden won 81,283,501 to 74,223,975.
But the popular vote doesn't count.
What put him over the top were:
Georgia - 2,473,633 to 2,461,854 = 11,779 votes. Pennsylvania - 3,459,923 to 3,378,263 = 81,660
Michigan - 2,804,040 to 2,649,852 = 154,188 Wisconsin - 1,630,866 to 1,610,184 = 20,682
Arizona - 1,672,143 to 1,661,686 = 10,457
Biden didn't win by 7,059,526 votes. All those extra votes in places like California and New York didn't count.
He won by 278,766 votes in 5 key states. That's it.
Now, since we aren't pushing hard on vote by mail this year, how many voters do you think will disengage and not vote?
God that’s fucking depressing! Thanks for putting it in perspective.
If it makes you feel better, he killed his own boombooms with his demented policy choices
Biden won because of the youth vote, millennials and gen z out numbered boomers and silent generation for the first time.
But this year he's only up 4 points in the 18-34 demo.
It's fucking insane seeing so many people insisting we can't talk about these issues while there's still time to fix it.
Biden just doesn't want to actually do things that would get him votes. Even something basic like doing interviews, it's like the 2024 Biden campaign is just going to be hiding him in a closet while the media talks about how bad trump would be and all of Bidens aides claim he's a completely different person off camera
I really don't think it will be enough this time. And it's fucking terrifying
Saying things like "Well, they're totally different off camera" sank both Dole and Clinton as well.
Pics or it didn't happen.
Add to that the lack of will to do debates...
Neither are doing primary debates, and there's no way a general debate happens.
We won't see either even attempt to answer a difficult question, and they'll both still fuck up the easy ones.
Biden I get, the sitting President doesn't have to debate.
In Trump's case, he has nothing to gain by it, so that also makes sense.
Once they lock down the candidacy though, there had better be debates.
It's tradition to do 3, last time they only did 2.
I'd be surprised if they do 1, especially if either of them answer a difficult question.
So much shit has been thrown out the window already.
The same youths who helped him win in 2020 will be needed this year. And I'm not 100% sure that a senile moderate is enticing enough to bring out the required votes, even if the other guy is a senile fascist-wannabe.
Don't worry. If young people don't like how Biden is supporting Netanyahu's genocide and moving to the right on immigration, we can just scream abuse at them until November!
Now I can already hear you asking "won't that alienate them and cause them to stay home?" Well, that sounds like something a Russian Chinese tankie Republican shill trumper child moron bot would say.
I dont think they understood your sarcasm
I know they did.
But not voting for him means fucking over lgbt, women, and minorities. Good work! You've made a great statement to the world about who you care about.
There you go. Just keep that up until november.
Just a note that polling of Millenials and younger is known to be wildly inaccurate since we don't follow traditional news media, so extrapolating a sample to a state or national value is functionally guesswork.
This is why polling stated Obama wasn't going to be re-elected and everyone was expecting a big Romney win.
Romney lost once the binders full of women comment happened. Similar to Hillary's deplorables comment.
Keep in mind that it's still February. The election is in November. If he did all of that now, the energy it generates would be worn off by then. Hopefully the strategy is to gear up the campaign in summer.
You're right...
Got to remember Biden is 81 years old and isn't capable of campaigning for a long time...
Surely nothing bad will happen if he waits till the last minute. And it's not like being able to work for 7 months is a constitutional requirement to be president.
/S
Even with the /s, this is insane. Campaigning is all about marketing, and timing is critical in marketing. Christ.
His opponent is currently making appearances while juggling trial dates and is nearly as old. Covid was a good excuse to keep Biden hidden last election, but he's going to have to be much more visible this time.
Yes, everyone knows with a capable, young, intelligent, and capable candidate, the trick is to hide them to the last second as a surprise.
So then hiding Biden has nothing to do with his lack of ability.
This is totally normal!
That's why no one is bothering to talk about the election right now and political stump speeches and advertising doesn't start till Halloween.
Wasn't Biden on Seth myers literally last night?
The unannounced 5 minute part where two celebrities talked about how great he is while he sat there looking at stuff other than the person talking?
So you haven't watched it yet?
He talks about the great agenda he has for 2020, spends most of his time waiting on cues he goes early on, talks about being buddy buddy with the leader of China, and rambles on about how America is the greatest country in the world after saying it's not.
Didn't have any problems with stuttering, but it looked like a video you make with an elderly family member during the holidays to send to everyone that doesn't visit the nursing home.
I refuse to believe anyone watches that shit show and came away confident in Biden.
But yeah, before the post got taken down, I even commented on it how it's more than I thought we'd get, and also makes sense why his campaign team is hiding him.
Which is why you suddenly see all these sockpuppet accounts posting about how bad Biden is.
I have to let this out, and your comment was the trigger. Lucky you.
Three things are pissing me off in this election in particular.
It's utterly insane; the electoral college needs to be dumped, there's no doubt about that, and adoption of approval voting, or ranked choice -- almost anything would be better. But even with these issues, the US managed to work for 200 years, until the past few election cycles, and it's just gotten insane.
The undecideds are people who aren't paying attention. It's easy to not be sure who you'll vote for when your opinion is based on whatever stray bits of politics pop up around you despite your best efforts to remain ignorant. And those people are just as likely to run into lies and propaganda, but won't have the knowledge required to spot the inaccuracies.
Most of those votes weren't for Biden though they were against trump. Trump is still trump last I checked so I will vote against him again and hope for the best
All true. In the US, you don't have to win a majority to win the election.
But I highly doubt that Democrats are going to sit this one out.
And if they just show up to the same degree as in 2020, Trump still needs to broaden support in the key swing states to actually win them. If he's not doing it nationally, chances are he's not doing it in the battlegrounds.
I sense there are a lot of young progressives screaming about "genocide" in Gaza who are going to sit it out, not able to grasp the big picture.
Scare quotes around genocide? Really?
It's questionable whether what is happening in Gaza is genocide from a legal perspective. Regardless, being concerned with Gaza but sitting out this election and not voting is asinine. Biden may not being doing enough to help stop the humanitarian crisis and him in office may not save any lives in Gaza, but I can guarantee Trump in office will get more people killed. Trump will happily use US military resources to flatten Gaza, and brag about it. Claims that Biden is facilitating or supporting genocide in Gaza ultimately benefits Trump and will doom the Gazan Palestinians if Trump gets in office.
Firstly, no it isn't. Secondly, resorting to "a legal perspective" so that you can choose the specific definition that makes it technically kinda not qualify if you squint hard enough is a really shitty, bad faith debate tactic. The stated wishes and goals of average, mainstream Israelis is to kill all Palestinians, burn Gaza to the ground, and take it over. That's genocide, plain and simple.
I'm not a legal expert and I doubt you are as well, but if you search the 'net there are plenty of articles from respectable news sources covering debates and discussions over whether it's legally genocide or not. I'm not going to debate it with you; I'll leave it up to those who are qualified to determine if it is truly genocide, and pursue war crimes charges as necessary. I never said it was morally correct what Israel is doing. The morality or lack thereof of their actions is separate from the legal definition of genocide. Furthermore, and quite ironically, the 1988 Hamas Charter specifically states as a goal to obliterate Israel in language that rhymes with genocide. While it certainly doesn't justify what Israel is doing right now, Hamas would be doing the same to Israel right now if it was within their capabilities. Israel could have taken over Gaza long ago, if it really wanted to do it. What's going on right now in Gaza is the result of Hamas launching an offensive with no strategic or worthy goals, against an enemy they knew they had no chance of winning against. It's a pretty good assumption that some portion of the cries of genocide are the result of foreign propaganda to both garner support for Hamas and the continuing disruption and outside influence of US politics.
That's exactly my point. The "legal definition", if for some reason it doesn't apply, is just an excuse to avoid confronting the atrocities we are complicit in committing. If the "legal definition" isn't met, then it's simply wrong. Some court case isn't what determines whether it's "truly genocide", it's that Israel, with our support, is and has been trying for decades to eradicate an entire people and culture.
I do agree with this, and it's really unfortunate. But yeah, if I was Hamas I would use the fact that Gazans are being genocided to drum up support too, it's a pretty good argument. To avoid creating a situation where Hamas looks like the good guys, I think the best thing to do would be to, you know, stop murdering Palestinian children.
I don't think proving actual genocide is a prerequisite or requirement for bringing war crimes charges and holding people accountable. For example, if in war a military unit/leader/solider executes a group of unarmed civilians, it can be pursued as a war crime as it's intentionally targeting and harming civilians, but executing one group of civilians in this fashion isn't genocide, even if they were a specific race, religious sect, etc. Undoubtedly if there was a pattern of this occurring and there was provable support from leadership, it would be considered genocide. Genocide, like other terms like suicide, homicide, germicide, etc., has a specific meaning. Morality is much more subjective, and hence I'd call Israel's action quite immoral. Israel may indeed want to eradicate Gaza as a territory or political unit, however that doesn't mean it's genocide. Otherwise we could call Russia's desire to eradicate or annex Ukraine genocide. And after I write all this, I realize I'm debating the meaning of genocide. But I digress.
On all this we can agree. I don't want innocent civilians killed, either. I take issue with the term genocide and the way it's being used, especially in the context of the US supposedly "promoting or supporting" genocide. That's simply not true. It's a complicated landscape and as we've been discussing this I see there is a ceasefire being pursued diplomatically by the Biden administration. I think the way the term genocide is being used here and elsewhere cheapens it and compromises the severity and seriousness of the term.
Without vote by mail, they won't show up to the same degree. Trump's vote was driven by in person votes, Biden by vote by mail.
That's not going to be true this year. And like I showed, the margins in those key states is super slim.
Georgia - Trump +6 to +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Pennsylvania - Trump +2 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Arizona - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Biden can't win without these states and if the election were today?
Whatever the polls say, do you have any idea what a mess the GOP in Michigan is? We're having a primary and two competing caucuses because we have two heads of the state party and they are bankrupt. There is a lawsuit to sell their headquarters to pay their bills. And we came out for abortion rights big time in 22, which Republicans continue to shoot themselves in the fucking head with.
There is zero ground game. I can't believe it's even possible for Trump to win here, polls be damned.
I've been watching and it's absolutely hilarious, none of which is going to impact the general election.
If none of it matters in the general then nothing matters. Money doesn't matter. Organization and unity don't matter. I'm not an expert, but I just don't believe you are correct. For decades I've heard how important ground game is. Heard Hillary's (among others) loss blamed on it.
I just don't see how that can be right.
Hillary didn't just lose because of a lack of "ground game" she lost because of instead of campaigning in states she needed to win, she did a victory lap and only went to states she was already locked in to win.
She took winning for granted and only cared about beating Obama's vote, because she still held a grudge.
The other responder is correct. This is exactly what I was referring to. Why split hairs between a failure of the local party and self-sabotage resulting in no ground game?
I could copy paste what I told them, but it's probably easier for you to just scroll down since it sounds like you already read it
No need, it's just as pointless as it was the first time when you responded to him.
No idea why you responded then, but feel free to keep responding I'll never see them
That's another way of saying "lack of ground game".
Clinton had organizers in Michigan and Wisconsin, but she failed to visit the states personally which voters saw as taking them for granted.
When the election rolled around, they did not.
Which was especially stupid for her given how Wisconsin showed a willingness to vote R in statewide elections over and over. She SHOULD have been there.
You make it sound like something they couldn't do.
Not something they deliberately choose to ignore
That's the difference. Hillary had all the campaign resources and money to win, hell, she took a bunch from senate races thru a fucked up DNC "donor sharing" program.
Then blew all that money traveling Blue states so people would clap for her.
She didn't just fuck up her race, she fucked up the house and senate as well.
Details and specifics matter
They are when you track them over time. In each of these states, support for Trump is growing, not shrinking.
Maybe, maybe not. You sound very confident in Trump. I'm not.
Sure, there's a risk Trump will somehow pull out a win in the electoral college. But I don't think he's the favorite by any stretch of the imagination.
Well, I've been following the polling in these states for several months now and I've watched them go from 1/2 Biden 1/2 Trump, to all Trump by a couple of points, to all Trump by 5 to 6 points.
The momentum is definitely with Trump at this point.
Can he maintain it? Dunno.
Dude, we've all been watching. And everyone knows that it's going to be close. It always is. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to predict that. It's also way too early to conclude anything from polling.
The whole point is following the trend line. If the trend continues, it's important to have been following it as soon as possible.
You can find any trend you want in statistics. The only trend that matters is on election day.
And by the time you can report on that, it's far too late to do anything about it.
Which is why you follow the trend line now.
It will be people (in a few key states) who refuse to vote for Biden due to purity testing or vote third party who put him in office if it happens.
That is how basically every election has worked for 30+ years. About 40% of people lean republican, 40% democrat, and 20% independent. Campaigns are mostly about getting 100% of your 40% to vote than winning independents or opponents.
Way less people are Republican, but only in pure numbers, which doesn't mean shit when you use the Electoral College (or have 2 senators per state regardless of population, for that matter). The only voters who actually matter for presidents are in the 5 or so states that don't always go red or blue.
We already hit the point decades ago where GOP can't win a federal election without anti democratic institutions like gerrymandering and the electoral college. It needs to be replaced with something actually functional in leading government in policy supporting constituents to compete with DNC. I detest political parties, but the only thing worse than many parties is one party.
Considering current polling, his current level of support is terrifyingly close to enough. If we don't want to face down four more years of Trump, Biden really needs a lot better campaigning than, "I'm not that guy." Sure, it's still early and the predictive power of polls at this stage isn't fantastic. But, it seems like a bad place to be starting from.
Every single day Biden continues to support genocide, the closer I get to not being able to vote for him. Among my friends, I'm the most harm reductionist telling people that when election day comes, we have to do what's best with the choice we have. But I'm starting to become viscerally disgusted at the idea of voting for Biden
And by not voting for Biden, how do you expect the issue you care about is going to be addressed by a Trump administration? I’m in my 50s and have never been a fan of Joe Biden or most of the “centrist” Democratic Party - but you can sure as hell believe I’ll be casting a vote for him in November.
I don't know man. I'm the one who makes this argument. I'll probably still vote Biden on election day, but I want to vomit at the thought of him after seeing him support this.
It's one thing when he is just useless at getting actual shit done. "Nothing will substantially change" is one thing. But if I'm starting to break down on this, then that makes me scared that we are truly fucked
Worst part is that Biden trusts that he can do whatever he wants with supporting genocide because Trump is his opponent. It's an extra 'fuck you' to all of us.
In politics you pick and choose your battles. Biden is a needed stepping stone to get a true progressive in 2028. After 8 years of Obama we almost elected Bernie if it wasn't for the corruption that happened in the primary process. 2028 is the year of progressives.
I’m 100% voting for Biden, as Trump will both destroy US democracy and put the final nail into our species dystopian coffin with both climate change and the further empowerment of the rich. But we may be fucked in the sense that I think Biden is too unpopular in a vacuum(as in separate from Trump) for most voters to get the numbers out. I deeply hope that I am wrong but each thing he does that is semi divisive, let alone everything involving Israel, it gets harder for me to believe he has the ability to engender any enthusiasm for him
I've gone from being unenthusiastic about Biden to actively hating/despising him. To be clear, there is absolutely no world in which I will despise him less than trump. It's one thing to try to get people enthused, it's another when you have to bank on fear of the worse guy.
If he had looked the other way for just a month or two, that'd still be bad but at least we could be like "well it was a complicated situation but he made the right decision". It's almost March and it was already an undeniable and unbearable tragedy by Halloween of last year. I think we extremely close to the point of no return.
I feel that, election is still a long ways off and all kinds of crazy bullshit is bound to happen, but my confidence in his electability is not high. As much as I dread it I’m mentally preparing myself for the worst case scenario.
Jesus even if Biden kicked the bucket, which I’m not hoping for but it is a very real possibility, Kamala doesn’t give me any more peace of mind. Trump stroking out would give me some brief respite but I think Haley would kick the shit out of Biden purely by not being him or Trump, and the GOP would still push most of their insane agenda through if they can.
Things do not look good from my perspective, and I used to be an idealist
This is what people trying to get Trump elected sound like.
LOL Trump is best friends with Netanyahu. Trump will want half of Gaza for himself!
Sockpuppet account
Oh? That's news to me.
I blow off steam one time about being completly dishearted about the government and Biden after watching a video of a service member lighting themselves on fire and yelling free Palestine and I'm a sock puppet? I get it that some people are able to compartmentalize what Biden is doing right now and the criticality of keeping Trump out of office. But I wasn't able to yesterday when I was still reeling. I wanted to truly appreciate Aaron Bushnell's sacrifice, and with that, I did my best to let myself feel the true gravity of the genocide in Israel. Feeling the full weight of it, I feel angry, sad, dishearted, overwhelmed, grief and disgusted.
I'm feeling better today. if the election was yesterday, I'd have abstained. If it were tomorrow, I'd probably still vote blue no matter who.
This is like saying you're not going to vote for Biden because he's white. Or old. Or a capitalist. So is the other guy. There isn't another viable option. Trump has just as bad, if not a worse stance on Palestine, even provoking further conflict by moving the embassy during his tenure. You can't expect any US president to go to war with one of our only two legitimate allies in the region, but Biden's at least trying to broker a ceasefire for hostages.
There's another option. We're just scared to break the glass on the emergency switch. I don't blame you. It is scary.
Stop pretending "bad" and "worse" are our only options. If we wait too long it will be too late.
If you're too cowardly to face the fact that your "viable" options will lead you into fascism and pull the ripcord, then there is only one "viable option."
Uh huh. You first, internet warrior.
You mean "You first, me never," right?
May you live long with the consequences of your cowardice.
Trump will fucking nuke Gaza if given the chance. He also wants domestic concentration camps. Don't you think for a second there is any comparison between the two. Trump is a monster.
I'll die before voting for Trump (I'm trans so Trump winning well be extremely bad for me). But I'm so discouraged right now that i don't know what to do
[edit] changed a sentence
Dubious methodology says trump in trouble -> upvote
Dubious methodology says Biden in trouble -> downvote to oblivion.
That's a strange take on history. Of course many Republican politicains have said "focus on the homeland" or whatever while voting for wars, so the stated positions aren't really changing, and I don't imagine that Trump would be anti-war anyway. And big government is also a Republican thing. I can point to specific examples, but we all know about them, so why bother?
Anyway, it's hard for politics writers, no doubt, but this is basic historical knowledge. They can do better.
This insane Cheeto chimp is going to win. America is doomed.
Honestly, as the way things are, it doesn’t matter, we’re still doomed. Even if the asshole karks it from one too many hamburgers tomorrow, still doomed.
I already know three people that said they are not voting. THREE, imagine how that translates to the wider population
It could even be as high as FOUR
CRAZY RIGHT. But seriously, three people that I personally know voted for Biden in 2020, now are thinking about not voting? That's a lot. It's also who these people are that gets me, they are your run of the mill city democrats. Not terminally online Twitter followers eating antibiden propaganda.
On the other hand, there are a lot of Republicans, especially moderates and Republican-leaning independents, who are not going to go vote for Trump if he's the nominee.
Yeah, believe it or not, there are moderate Republicans.
I just don't want people to get complacent
People remember Trump and his presidency and the chaos and January 6 and Roe and IVF and much else. If he ends up as the Republican nominee, Democrats and independents won't be complacent.
I mean your sample is not really representative of the entire US population, so who knows what's going to happen. I personally know no one who is not going to vote because, that would just be stupid to not participate in the democratic process.
A person's opinion does not matter if they do not vote, at least to those in power. 200 million people could not vote 'in protest'. Doesn't matter. Just means it's that much easier for a bad candidate to take power and gain more control of the executive, legislative, and judical branches of govt that controls many aspects of our lives.
But what are the chances that one person hangs out with three people who have similar opinions? Sounds impossible if you ask me.
Meanwhile Biden is losing support, so it doesn't matter if trump just stays the same.
Biden only has 4% on Biden in the 18-34 demo, which is a lot more about Biden's inaction than trump.
https://www.axios.com/2024/02/26/biden-trump-gen-z-millennial-poll
The danger has never been trump gaining voters, it's that Biden is so shit and ignoring the majority of Dem voters that it might depress turnout so much Trump's base could be enough like it was in 2016.
Imagine knowing why we lost in 2016 and yet- being so willing to repeat it.
People only turn up to vote against something... that's the real problem Biden has. Th old say 'you run using poetry, you govern using prose', is apt. Ironically it'll be the anger over Gaza, that will keep the Democratic base home, and if Trump wins he'll claim half of Gaza for himself.
That's like saying a shit sandwich is the most popular meal, and not mentioning there's nothing else to eat.
Lots of people don't turn up to vote, they want something to vote for.
That's how Obama won red states his first election
We're in an era of populism and people are still trying to use the 2000s era to predict today.
He doesn't need to wide. his base, he just needs to motivate them. He need to to get more people excited about voting for him than Biden does those excited to vote Biden.
It's about turnout and driving a base. He's wiping the floor with Biden right now in the polls. No one is excited to vote Biden. It's not clear to me he even has a base. Instead taking heads are just trying to browbeat any one left of center into supporting Biden. It won't work at scale. Bidens got to do his own work there, because it's not currently Trump in office, it's Biden. Always harder for an incumbent, especially one who has become deeply unpopular with the coalition of voters that out him into office. No amount of blue no matter who is going to fix Biden as a candidate. Only Biden can do that.
Biden and the DNC know that
It's just what excites voters pisses off big money donors. And they picked the side neoliberals are always going to pick.
And they're hoping the threat of trump is enough to scare the serfs into line.
From a psychology perspective, it's a horrible plan. Especially after it has a 50% success rate in the last two elections. 2024 is a coin flip, and it's only because we're using trump as an excuse to run someone who's first presidential primary was 2 generations ago.
Seriously. A person born the year of Bidens first primary could safely be a grandparent for this one. In some red states, a great grandparent already.
He's never been a popular candidate, just had the luck of getting the primary handed to him and getting to face the literal worst president we've ever had the general.
Mean while, blue no matter who out here downvoting like this isn't the case.
Blue no matter who has proven to be a failed strategy in that it leaves you with weak indefensible candidates in competitive elections.
Were probably going to get Trump, and it will be 💯 due to Democrats and the Blue No Matter Who coalition. But just like Hillarys shocking arrogance in 2016, these ass holes will yet again fail to understand that they themselves are the problem.
It's not arrogance ... it's that the voting maps are rigged. Democrats win the popular vote.
Hillary Clinton, was and is, one of the most singularly arrogant politicians to have ever existed.
She opted out of campaigning in the entirety of the rust belt, because it was 'her turn'.
She viewed voters as obligated in voting for her. She was wrong. Dead wrong.
The base of his penis maybe
He's not winning anything with the base of that shrivelled, syphilitic shunt of gristle.