Experts: Jack Smith’s “dramatic new proof” so “overwhelming” reluctant witnesses may decide to flip

TheJims@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world – 392 points –
Experts: Jack Smith’s “dramatic new proof” so “overwhelming” reluctant witnesses may decide to flip
salon.com
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Shit or get off the pot.

If you're trying to keep track of where we're at in the Trump prosecutions:

Updated 01/08/2024

Washington, D.C.
4 federal felonies
January 6th Election Interference

Investigation
Indictment
Arrest  <- You Are Here
Trial - March 4th, 2024, one day before Super Tuesday primaries.
Jack Smith had requested that the Supreme Court immediately rule on Trump's immunity defense, the Court rejected the request, requiring it to go through the usual appeals process first.
Conviction
Sentencing

New York
34 state felonies
Stormy Daniels Payoff

Investigation
Indictment
Arrest <- You Are Here
Trial - March 25th, 2024
Conviction
Sentencing

Florida
40 federal felonies
Top Secret Documents charges

Investigation
Indictment
Original indictment was for 37 felonies.
3 new felonies were added on July 27, 2023.
Arrest <- You Are Here
Trial - May 20, 2024
Conviction
Sentencing

Georgia
13 state felonies
Election Interference

Investigation
Indictment
Arrest <- You Are Here
All 19 defendants have surrendered.
Trial - A trial date of Aug. 5, 2024 has been requested, not approved yet.
Three defendants, Kenneth Chesebro, Sidney Powell, and bail bondsman Scott Hall, have all pled guilty and have agreed to testify in other cases.
The judge in the case has set a deadline of December 1st for all motions to be filed, expect a trial date at some point after that.
Conviction
Sentencing

Other grand juries, such as for the documents at Bedminster, or the Arizona fake electors, have not been announced.

The E. Jean Carroll trial for sexual assault and defamation where Trump was found liable and ordered to pay $5 million before immediately defaming her again resulting in a demand for $10 million is not listed as it's a civil case and not a crimimal one. That trial date is currently set for January 15th, the same day as the Iowa caucus. and has now been determined to be for damages only as Trump was already found liable.

As a function of the January 6th and Georgia trials, there are now lawsuits in two states to bar Trump from the primary ballot based on the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment.

Colorado:

12/19/23 - The Colorado Supreme Court has ruled that Trump is not eligible for the primary ballot due to being barred by the 14th Amendment as an insurrectionist.

The Supreme Court has agreed to hear arguments starting Thursday, February 8th.

Minnesota:

11/8/2023 - State Supreme Court denies challenge, allows ballot access.  

Maine:

12/29/2023 - Maine's Secretary of State has ruled that Trump is not qualified for the ballot., which is now being challenged.

A long-shot write in candidate for President has also filed suits seeking to bar Trump from the ballot in Florida, Kansas, Montana, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Utah, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

His cases in Arizona, California, Idaho, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island,  and West Virginia have been thrown out:

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/federal-judge-dismisses-trump-eligibility-challenge-in-arizona/

https://ballot-access.org/2023/12/17/john-anthony-castro-voluntarily-dismisses-his-california-anti-trump-ballot-access-lawsuit/

https://ballot-access.org/2023/10/12/john-anthony-castro-dismisses-his-idaho-lawsuit-on-trump-ballot-access/

https://www.wmur.com/article/new-hampshire-donald-trump-ballot-lawsuit-dismiss/45682757

https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/politics/2023/11/27/trump-keeps-right-to-be-on-presidential-ballot-in-ri/71720185007/

https://wvmetronews.com/2023/12/22/lawsuit-to-boot-trump-off-west-virginia-ballots-is-dismissed-because-plaintiff-lacks-standing/p

This should be updated with the US Supreme Court hearing the appeal against Colorado Supreme Court removing Trump from the ballot, which will start being heard on 8 Feb.

Yeah, I'll get that added! Also waiting on a date for the Maine ruling.

Thank you for collecting all this information in one place, it is appreciated! Does a website or blog exist where this information is posted and updated? If not, there should be.

Not to my knowledge. I started putting it together on reddit because there were enough investigations going on, any time there was news, people would complain "why isn't he in jail already!!?!" and I'm like "No, no, you don't get it... this isn't a TV show, it's a whole PROCESS..."

So I set out to show the process:

Investigation
Indictment
Arrest
Trial
Conviction
Sentencing

For crimes of this magnitude it takes YEARS.

That’s not how the legal system works. If you come at the king you best not miss and jack has no interest in missing.

I’d rather have an air tight case given how slippery Trump has been. You clearly understand how difficult this is yet here you are advocating for a rush job.

Let him cook.

It's been three fucking years. I strenuously object to the notion that building even an airtight case for crimes we all witnessed live on national fucking TV really needed to take this goddamn long!

For perspective, by this amount of time had passed after the Beer Hall Putsch, Hitler had been arrested, tried, convicted, imprisoned, wrote a shitty book, and pardoned and released again. If even the Weimar fucking Republic -- damn near a failed state -- could manage that, what do these ridiculous delays say about us?!

Remind me what happened to Hitler after that prosecution?

He was convicted and imprisoned. Are you implying the fact that he got pardoned means that wasn't what they should have done? Do you think if they moved slower or did something else different Hitler wouldn't have been pardoned somehow?

Hitler didn't base his society on lawyers

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In principle I agree. But the truth is the GOP has gone fully rogue. They aren't even playing the same game, let alone by the same rules. The more latitude Trump and those in thrall to him are afforded, the more likely an actual, effective, coup is executed. The deeper into the process Trump gets, the more legitimaized he becomes. The more legitimaized he becomes the more the "implications" increase. Basically he needs to be removed from the game as soon as possible because time is a huge factor. He's very good at stall tactics, and he is very good at making sure things do or do not stay in the public consciousness. In short, the most dangerous thing you can give Trump to play with is time.

Or just stringing it out and managing to win the next election (probably by more effective cheating)

I'm with you on the legal side, but on the media side, wtf. I'm tired of having to check whether each piece of new, devastating evidence is in fact a) new and not some new wrapper around an article from yesterday b) actually devastating, not routine filing and c) relevant at all.

That's no dig at this particular article, but these headlines are inducing a "shit or get off the pot" mentality as far as trying to keep up.

Edit: I would like to note that this headline engages in speculation (note the word "may"). That is some "shit or get off the pot" shit. I'm tired of what "may" happen. At least in the headline. Speculation has its place. It's in the body of a well-sourced article.

The media has been milking the nations politics for a long time now. In 2016 CBS CEO was quoted saying Trump was making them lots of money. It’s the same thing here, they think they can outlast the fascism so they don’t seem to care about the damage it does

Not to say that those that write articles about how extra doomed Trump is this time for sure but probably not yet….. are hurting the nation like CBS did with Trump but it does have a negative effect.

I guess they don’t want people to forget but the fatigue is real. That’s part of trumps delay tactic and his bullshit as a whole for that matter

If the legal system cannot hold Trump accountable before hes able to get elected president and make these investigations stop then the legal system doesn't work. A system that cannot protect itself from the people it's supposed to punish is fundamentally broken, and that's looking like where we are. Cling to the broken system and you should expect broken results.

All that can be true and rushing it would still be a worse option.

We are nowhere near rushing it, its been three years. We are actively slow walking, all we need to do it treat him like we treat people without wealth, but we cannot. There's a massive amount of space between 'rushing it' and what we are doing right now.

Imagine if they miss just one little thing and he gets off on a technicality. He would absolutely escalate the dictatorship bs and justify it all by pointing to his non conviction or a successful appeal.

You say it is being actively slow walked. Based on what? Cannon is slow walking the FL documents case, but Jack Smith is running a "speedy trial" in DC. So is Willis in GA. Trump's NY fraud case is finishing up after a pretty standard length trial given the amount of info that needed to be presented.

If these are intentionally slow trials, then what should the timelines have been instead?

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Isn't the trial date already set? This is just an article about some random "expert opinion," not something actually from the case.

Convict or I’ll lose whatever faith I have left in this shithole of a country.

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Is this the relevant part?

Former Trump aide Nick Luna also shared that when the ex-president was told about Vice President Mike Pence’s need to be moved to a secure location, Trump responded by saying "So what?" Luna perceived this as an “unexpected willingness” on Trump's part to expose a longtime loyalist to potential harm.

“Indeed, Trump’s angry response to Scavino’s comment to him that there’s smoke coming out of the Capitol in effect was, ‘Let it Burn,’” Gershman said. “And his nonchalant indifference to Vice President Pence’s safety and welfare offers chilling proof that Trump’s conscious purpose, namely, his intent, was first to incite an insurrection and then by his inaction to demonstrate his intent that the insurrection effectively stop Congress from doing its constitutional duty to certify the election results.”

This proof would be “powerful circumstantial” evidence of Trump’s criminal intent underlying all the federal charges, he added.

I find it crazy how Trump trying to foege election results with fake certificates and get those flown into DC somehow didn't affect any of these things at all.

Like wtf.

There have been rumors that Jack Smith has something up his sleeve since he presented an argument about Trump's claim of immunity. In it, he listed "hypothetical" crimes that could be committed where immunity couldn't apply. Which is odd. Accepting a bribe, ordering an FBI director to fake evidence against a political foe, ordering the military to murder critics, and even selling nuclear secrets to a foreign enemy—these are the particular and peculiar crimes that prosecutors say Trump could get away with if he succeeds in arguing that presidential immunity.

Ordering the FBI to go after political opponents and fake evidence? That sounds really far fetched I don't know if...

The rogue department: how the Trump DoJ trashed legal and political norms

Former senior DoJ officials say the former president aggressively prodded his attorneys general to go after his enemies, protect his friends and his interests, and these moves succeeded with alarming results until Trump’s last few months in office.

Trump says he would weaponise DOJ and FBI against political enemies

Oh okay yeah that sounds pretty plausible

Yes, this is certainly the first time the fbi has been used as a political weapon.

The first time someone could face consequences for it, for sure

This salon article is basically a re-posting of this article linked:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/special-counsel-probe-uncovers-new-details-trumps-inaction/story?id=106131854

Basically the tldr is it's testimony that was recently disclosed publicly for the first time in a new motion from someone around him as the insurrection was unfolding. Lots of details about his mindset and what he was doing at the time, but one particularly interesting one was apparently trump decided to make the tweet about "Pence didn't have the courage to do what should have been done" minutes after hearing he was in danger, some more solid evidence he was trying to get his coup followers to attack Pence and others. Interesting details about what went down that will no doubt be helpful in court, but the headline is a bit sensationalized I think.

This is reminding me of Muller and how it was all talk that amounted to nothing

"Amounted to nothing"? Did you read the report? There was plenty of evidence that Mueller put forward that should have amounted to a case. The only remaining questions were if Trump was even aware he was being assisted and actively colluding, and if a sitting president could be prosecuted. Mueller decided he had to be impeached and removed before action could be taken, and his cult protected him.

That's not "all talk", that's Republicans putting their own interests over the country.

Muller's report was like... Yo, this guy did some things that definitely could be considered crimes. As an investigator, I referred them to the DoJ, as bringing a case against the president was not part of my mandate.

That then Bill Barr was like... Eh, he's white and rich and he's forwarding a christofacist agenda, so I don't think we need to charge him with anything.

There was plenty of evidence that Mueller put forward that should have amounted to a case.

"Should have" is all we ever deal in.

And Garland decided not to use it when he had the chance at the beginning of the Biden administration.

People went to jail because of Mueller's good work. Is that what your mean by "nothing"?

You may have wanted Trump to go to jail or be forced out of office but there was no chance of either of those given that Trump was President.

It was profitable, 34 people and 3 companies were indicted, and it substantiated election interference.

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Let me refute the central claim of the article, e.g., that the evidence is so strong that co-conspirators might wish to take a plea and coopoerate.

Right now, Trump is leading the race for the GOP nomination. It is likely that he'll be the nominee. If Trump is the nominee, it's currently a coin toss on whether or not he gets elected. If he's elected, all federal criminal cases against him will evaporate the second he takes office, because Garland is out, and the arms-length doctrine about the president's relationship with the Justice Dept. is too. Jack Smith is going to be fired, and the person that comes in is going to file a motion to dismiss. IF Trump is elected, that's a given. Anyone that's flipped on Trump at this point is going to be hung out to dry.

People that are part of the RICO case in Georgia run similar risks, e.g., if they flip on Trump and he wins the presidency, they're probably going to end up getting screwed for pissing off Trump, since he's a dumb, vindictive sonuvabitch.

Even if Trump loses the election, Jack Smith still has to present a strong enough case to convict. While that seems likely to me, what evidence a jury can hear and consider isn't the same as what I get from news sources. There's a lot that I've seen that simply isn't going to be admissible, and that could be enough for a jury to find Trump et al. not guilty on most or all charges.

If I was a defendant in this case, I'd say that there was roughly a 50-50 chance of getting pardoned outright if I kept my mouth shut, and a 25% chance that Smith wouldn't be able to prove his case. That works out to be a roughly 38% that if I kept my mouth shut, I'd end up in convicted and possibly in prison. Those aren't great odds when you're talking about a few years in federal prison. But weighed against 30% of the whole country viewing you as a traitor if you take the deal, and having a target on your back for the rest of your life? I might take that risk.

I mean, if they properly constructed full presidential immunity on anything what's to stop B from having T executed?

I keep seeing hypotheticals like this as if the Dems won't pull the same old "we go high" BS they've been pulling my entire life. They're all about positioning themselves as "the good guys" while letting Rs do just whatever. The realistic way it would play out is Dems pretend nothing is wrong, make a show of "peaceful transfer of power" after the election, and do the shocked pikachu when it's bad. Do pay attention to modern history.

I keep seeing hypotheticals like this

Either a president is completely free to do whatever he wants or he is constrained by rules. This is not hypothetical.

I meant the hypothetical in which Trump's "immunity" defense is upheld, libs love to powerfantasy about what Biden could do with this sort of "immunity" but history tells us that when Dems can choose whether or not to be restrained, they choose restraint, even if it means the GOP gets to hurt everyone.

Yeah, the quote wasn't actually a literal suggestion, it was pointing out the absurdity in a way that a conservative could understand it without having to make it directly about them.

All politicians are at the same time self serving and for sale to some extent or they'd never successfully get into politics.

But one side gets off on punishing people from the other side, and the gays, the poor, and the minorities. I generally put those guys down as the bad guys when I'm checking off boxes.

That orange jack wagon parading around how he's going full dictator for a day to punish everyone. It's one thing to be a sell out, to back a position for the favor of the people that donate the most to your cause, it's another to try to come to power by proudly claiming all the people you want to hurt.

The people backing him campaigning that way, they are not good people.