Donald Trump Is Not as Popular as Everyone Thinks
newsweek.com
Despite resounding victories on Super Tuesday, there are indications that Donald Trump is still struggling to get strong, united Republican support, which he may need in the presidential election.
Speaking to CNN about the Super Tuesday results, columnist and political commentator Molly Jong-Fast said: "There is a real 'Never Trump' contingent, and remember, Trump is a primary candidate. He has only ever tried to appeal to Republican primary voters, and he cannot marshal that group together the way he needs to.
"Part of his trick in 2016 was, he got these low-frequency voters out, these people who almost never voted, which is why the polling was so off, and you're just not seeing that same type of enthusiasm."
The real issue is not Trump's popularity. It's that most of the people who vote for him are voting against democrats out of an indoctrinated zealotry. In their twisted views, voting for a traitor, conman, and rapist is preferable to voting blue.
Meanwhile, people who agree with 90% of any variation of the Democratic platform will protest vote or stay home to "send a message" or some bullshit.
I mean, as long as they only do so in the primaries, this is a valid behavior.
In the actual election, however, I strongly suggest voting the lesser of two evils when the other option has cited mein kampf and said they want to be a dictator
After that, you can still go on the street and demonstrate for the abolishment of the electoral college and a system that only allows two parties to have chances
Voting the lesser of 2 evils is the only option in a 2 man first-past-the-post "democractic" oligarchy.
Okay, I'm definitely not trying to "both sides" here. I will absolutely be voting for Biden, I wish he was stronger on a few issues but ultimately think he's done a pretty good job as president. Don't you think there are a lot of people on the other side of that coin as well, even strategy stated here and elsewhere that people "must" vote for Biden even if it's just to stop Trump?
Again, not saying I disagree, while I have reasons to welcome a Biden second term I wish we had better options than a 2020 rematch, and part of me will absolutely be voting for Biden because a second Trump term terrifies me and will likely mean the end of any semblance of democracy we have left.
Well, sure, but look at what you're saying. You're going to vote for someone who you think is decent, but not everything you want, because your other option is a guy who has been convicted of corporate fraud and rape, who has 91 felony indictments, who tried to overthrow the government and was the first president in history to refuse a peaceful transfer of power. The people we're talking about on the other side are voting for that guy because he's not a Democrat.
The rapist agrees with them so they will do so.
Doesn't matter. Vote like he is and make sure to keep him out!
According to the 2016 polls, he was really unpopular and we know how that turned out.
Exactly!
Keith Ellison tried to warn us in July 2015 and they literally laughed at him.
https://youtu.be/FHkPadFK34o
Articles like this scare me as it may cause people to not vote. We need people out there voting to protect our rights.
This. All the protest and sit out votes might as well have him back in the oval office. Guess who's gonna whine the loudest when that happens?
The polling wasn't off in 2016, it was actually super accurate and missed the result by only one point.
Trump isn't popular, but he doesn't need to be, he just needs to be less unpopular than Biden, and right now polling is suggesting that he is exactly that.
Do you remember 2016? Most pollsters picked Hillary to win. It was not "super accurate". Most people were shocked by the outcome.
And no, Trump isn't "less unpopular" than Biden. That's the point of the article. Based on the current polls, Trump should not be struggling at all against a centrist candidate that no one knows (Nikki Haley). That's like a pro team having trouble beating a college team. It's not good and shows large problems.
Biden only has pressure from the left, and there isn't even a candidate that can stand against him. The "no one" votes, are mainly people saying they want a generic progressive who doesn't exist right now. In the general election, it's much harder to overcome centrists who dislike you than right or left wing voters.
I remember. The polls were accurate. The pundits were not. People were shocked because they didn't want to believe that there are really that many loathsome morons around, not because they looked at what polls said.
Here are the main polls for that race on the eve of the election. What they actually said was that the race was close to a tossup, with Clinton perhaps very slightly favoured to win.
Here and here are favourability ratings. As you can see, Trump's are substantially less negative.
Trump is going to fade the more in public he is. He is losing his mind and he fact he shits his pants and wears a diaper is starting to catch on. That's really going to hurt him. Careful with real clear politics, they were bought by right wing billionaires.
The RCP website is full of garbage partisan puff pieces. But a poll average is just a poll average. It was super close in the 2022 midterms.
I don't know how anyone could've missed that Trump is moron, but if voters are indeed only now catching on, there's no sign of it yet in polling.
You are comparing "approval" ratings with "favorability" ratings. Trump has no favorability ratings because he's not in office. These are not the same.
Biden's "favorability" is lower because there are people who want him to be more progressive. That doesn't mean they won't vote for him in a race against Trump.
You can't use "favorability" to gauge whether people will vote because it compares the candidate to a mythical generic person. The ballot doesn't ask "do you like what Joe Biden is doing?" it asks "do you prefer Biden or Trump?"
Those are very different questions. Biden will pull ahead once people actually think about Trump being president. It's not a hypothetical like in 2016. He was president and he lost in 2020.
I've seen a lot of them say they won't. I've seen people who I know in the past have argued that we have to support Clinton or Biden in the general election, because Trump is worse, and even campaigned for the lesser-evil candidate, turn around and say they can't support Biden this time. I don't know if they will reconsider, as the election gets closer, or when faced with reality of a ballot in front of them - I certainly hope so - but I'm not taking any vote for granted in this election.
As an aside, while the violence against Palestinians has really caught people's attention, I don't know why people seem more mad at Biden this time than last time, or more mad than they were at Clinton. There hasn't been a president in the last few decades at least who would have handled the situation better; on other issues, Biden has proven much better than I expected when I held my nose and voted for him last time; and Trump is a cornered animal, much more dangerous this time around.
I wasn't saying favourability ratings should be used to predict elections. For that you have polls (in which Trump has a substantial but not decisive lead). I was just responding to the comment about who is more unpopular.
I think that people who respond to pollsters overwhelmingly know that Trump was president before, and clearly it doesn't bother them what a train wreck that presidency was. It's not clear to me how they would suddenly start realizing that closer to election day.
I've noticed a lot of conservatives don't have the same full-throated support for Trump this time that they did in 2016. For instance, he lost a ton of gun owner support when he started talking about "taking the guns first, and letting the courts sort it out later," and then going on to sign the bump-stock ban. I've seen some of those people go from rabid Trump fan-boys to kind of sneering whenever they hear his name. I suspect a lot of them are going to end up falling in line come November, but I wouldn't be shocked if there were a fair few people casting protest votes as well.
I think the best we can hope for from the right is apathy
Otherwise powerful politicians still act like they’ll literally die if they stop sucking his knob, though. Not clear why but it will be nice whenever that’s over.
Pretty sure , he picked his VP and other posts based on who gave the best blowjob.
Pence was surprising
Good blowjobs are hard. Don't hate.
Pence says he never dines alone with women other than his wife, but he never said anything about being alone with men…
https://time.com/4716439/mike-pence-karen-pence-eat-alone/
Nobody likes a guy who poops his pants and acts like an asshole
I don't care how unpopular he really is, the problem is the RNC is set to win the presidential election with only 2 swing state victories.
That's about 5 times as popular as I would prefer him to be.
So, hey, isn't this like that one time where you guys thought he had no way of winning but kinda sorta won anyway?
Does it matter if they've got that Christi-fascist god-bothering speaker of the house to install him anyway, regardless of the election outcome? It sounds like the more rabid gop members are Russian sock puppets, he'll just be the head sock puppet...
Probably true, but I refuse to click on any Newsweek links. They've become a completely sensationalist rag.
The magas are gonna vote trump come hell or high water. The never trumpers should do the same. It's not everyone else's problem, and believing they have the numbers so I can sit it out is what got him in the office the first time.
In 2016 the DNC convinced a lot of voters not to show up because they had a presumptive nominee before the primary. In 2020 we had a real primary.
This year we were supposed to have a real primary because Biden had promised to be a one term president but he reneged on the deal - leaving us with, again, a pre-decided, generally unpopular, presumptive nominee.
I'm voting for him, but Joe Biden isn't as popular as everyone thinks.
I don't see any indication Biden ever promised to just serve one term, but a lot of people took it that way:
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129
https://freebeacon.com/biden-administration/flashback-we-were-all-told-biden-would-only-serve-one-term/
https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2019-12-11/joe-biden-suggests-he-would-only-serve-one-term-if-elected-president
All that changed when Trump failed to be imprisoned.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-not-sure-he-would-seek-re-election-if-trump-was-not-2023-12-05/
"If Trump wasn't running, I'm not sure I'd be running," Biden said at a fundraising event for his 2024 campaign outside of Boston. "We cannot let him win."
If something happened to take Trump out of the race I'm 80% certain Biden would go "My work here is done..." and step aside.
Unfortunately, DNC leadership would back Kamala Harris, guaranteeing a loss.
The thing I was thinking of was this old news story but maybe I did misread it... it certainly contributed to my vote: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/474027-biden-indicates-he-will-only-serve-one-term-as-president-report/
It seems his campaign did consistently deny it though.
Yeah, he didn't want the appearance of a lame duck President. He wouldn't have gotten 1/2 the things he did if the Republicans were confident they could just wait him out.
I think a year ago Biden would have stepped aside, but now he'd cripple the Dems if he did.
It would, but like I say, if something happens and Trump is not the nominee in July... that's a full month before the Democratic convention. Plenty of time to figure out the Democratic side.
I don't recall Biden ever saying he would be a 1 term president.
It was definitely floated as a potential promise. He definitely implied that he would prefer not to run again.
The 2020 Primary felt like high strategy game. I don’t know much about Américan politics but I do remember seeing Bernie Sanders continue the 2016 momentum only for Biden to pick up in South Carolina. The orchestration they did to keep primary candidates in to weaken Bernie while working for Biden felt to me less a Biden thing and more of Biden as a chess-piece. He was not the force behind it. His familiarity and seemingly calm demeanor appealed to most voters compared to the erratic image of Trump. But deep down there was a feeling of “screw you Bernie”. Luckily for Dems, that is not a fault line Republicans are exploiting.
I don't know if I'd agree with your interpretation fully on the Bernie vs Biden thing, but I think you've made an interesting point. Bernie supporters' anger at Hilary (don't get me wrong, I wasn't happy about it but I did vote for Hillary in the general election), justified or not, was exploited by Russia through the 2016 DNC email leak to try to help Trump win. And it's interesting that we're not seeing that angle of grievance being encouraged (by Russian trolls?) on social media right now like we did in 2016.
Most Democratic voters don't care about Bernie Sanders.
Who thinks Joe Biden is popular? Like, I know all the polls get downvoted to hell or removed for BS reasons around here but I can't believe the reality hasn't set in on some level
Most of Lemmy it'd seem, unfortunately.
The same people who keep saying he's the most progressive progressive to ever progress a progress.
I mean, he has been underperforming compared to the margins he was supposed to win by in a number of polls. Can't recall off hand, where it was specifically and which polls, but I think he scored 28 points lower than what the polls anticipated in one area.
What would explain those discrepancies? The polling still worries me
Did you read this article? Maybe the title of the article?
What does that have to do with Trump beating Biden in polls? The article premise regarding primaries is not reflected in the general election polling.
Um, who thinks tiny d is popular?
2024 Presidential Election Polls.
Those polls also put Hillary ahead by a mile. I'd rather see the opposition think they have to fight, so they, you know, actually fucking fight instead of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
TBF, those polls were biased against Trump. And now they're showing he is ahead. That alone should be pretty alarming.
I sure hope this is right. We are at a critical moment in terms of climate change action, and he plans to dismantle the IRA, probably the most substantial piece of climate change legislation in the Western world.
I'm old. Is there some other IRA that isn't Irish?
Inflation Reduction Act. Basically, a large amount of money is being put into renewable energy and the like (along with a number of other policies).
FTFY. Government subsidies for private enterprise has no business existing in the 21st century. Why don't we nationalize all these industries, cut out the middlemen, and get a better ROI? Oh yeah, it's because these bills are written by lobbyists for big corpo who want to make sure they get their piece of the tax dollar pie.
Not that I think Trump would do anything better, but the IRA falls just behind Trump's PPP as the most corrupt, best-ambitioned, acts.
The act that funds the IRS to go after tax cheats is corrupt? And you think nationalized industries are not corrupt?
Poor people are audited at a rate of 5x more often than the rich and that trend hasn't changed in the 2 years since the IRA was passed. The problems with the IRS aren't from funding, they're systemic, and the system is working exactly as intended. The IRS needs a complete defunding and rebuilding, but the idea that anything will improve for the average person with a better-funded IRS would be hilarious if not for the fact that so many people believe it.
Less corrupt than private corporations and lobbyists? Of course. Take a look at something like the Roosevelt-era WPA to see what a properly-administered infrastructure project is supposed to be like, versus the lowest-bidder, private subsidies, inefficient system we have now.
https://marketrealist.com/p/who-does-the-irs-audit-the-most/
Absolutely no source given.
Meanwhile:
Source
Source
Both articles written within the past two years.
The US needs a massive tax law overhaul before any further funding for the IRS will benefit the average citizen.
They’re cherry-picking the numbers, comparing the lowest income demographic against the lowest audit rate demographic. The lowest audit rate demographic includes most taxpayers, starting at very low income. That a look at this chart clearly showing that wealthy are audited at a much higher rate
Also your own source says most of those EITC audits are “correspondence”. I’ve been through one: IRS sent mail saying they think I made a mistake and showed the correct value. I said “oops”, and returned the correction. Nothing to it. This is not the big scary audit people are afraid of
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Despite resounding victories on Super Tuesday, there are indications that Donald Trump is still struggling to get strong, united Republican support, which he may need in the presidential election.
Trump is all but certain to clinch the GOP's 2024 presidential nomination, setting up a rematch with President Joe Biden in November, after dominating the busiest day of the primary calendar with easy victories in more than a dozen states on March 5.
Trump has been the overwhelming favorite to win the 2024 GOP nomination throughout the primary season—with Super Tuesday's results further cementing this.
However, the former president is still losing a significant number of votes to a more moderate Republican candidate, and there is no guarantee voters will support him in the general election, which could be a warning sign for the 77-year-old.
Olivia Perez-Cubas, a campaign spokesperson for Haley, said in a statement that the results across the country Tuesday shows there is a "large block" of Republican primary voters who are "expressing deep concerns" about the potential of Trump returning to the White House.
In a speech at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, Trump said his clear lead in the GOP primary turned what is usually the most eagerly anticipated day of the presidential nomination season into a foregone conclusion.
The original article contains 518 words, the summary contains 213 words. Saved 59%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
"Resounding victories" ... It's an uncontested race? They just had Haley stay in as a strawman so it could feel like something was won. Asinine bullshit.
I think all politicians are less popular than they think, people are losing faith in our officials to do their jobs.
This is the only reason Biden has any chance at all in November. It’s going to come down to whose cultists drive the most other supporters off