Elon Musk’s Shadow Rule, Told Pentagon He Spoke to Putin Directly

USA ONE@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world – 418 points – Elon Musk’s Shadow Rule
newyorker.com

How the U.S. government came to rely on the tech billionaire—and is now struggling to rein him in.

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That's easy...the US needs to asset imminent domain on starlink. You don't fucking blackmail the government.

And SpaceX as a whole. It's entirely government funded anyway. Should have kept that money in NASA where it belonged. Fortunately, there's an easy way to put it all right back.

(Also, archive link of top article here: https://archive.is/H6rzo )

not entirely government funded, but enough that, if they withdraw funding, it would totally collapse.

the entire argument that “private companies do it cheaper” is mostly because they cut corners, skirt regulations, and screw over employees to do business on the cheap. then, we find out there may be massive security breaches like, oh, chatting with Putin and god knows who else...

Part of the problem is nasa seems to be very risk adverse now. Letting private companies take the risk is one way to get around that. I'm just glad we don't have to depend on russia to get to space or the iss.

Don't forget potentially underpay people. I don't believe that's happening for SpaceX specifically, but it does for many other competitors to government jobs. Government jobs aren't necessarily super high pay, but they usually have solid pay with excellent benefits, pension, and work/life balance.

So when jobs move from the public to private sector, it often comes at the cost of employees. And in some extreme cases, employees are paid so little that they have to rely on government benefits to get by, which is extremely dumb. That's subsidizing the private sector.

From what I've heard it's true. If you have a job offer from NASA and one from SpaceX, the NASA one is better.

We would've never gotten propulsive landing so quickly purely through NASA. See how far behind the SLS was. And SpaceX's funding comes mostly from private equity.

Bullshit.

The reason is NASA's budget kept getting slashed despite NASA making a profit since it's inception.

We gave them less money so progress would be slow and salaries wouldn't be competitive and then it could be privatized like so many sectors before it.

Because the wealthy can't buy stock in NASA.

NASA's budget isn't the only reason SpaceX has been able to innovate faster. NASA is incredibly risk averse, as their failures reflect onto the US government and by extension their budget. Even when safety isn't important such as with unmanned rockets, NASA doesn't want news headlines blasting them for their rocket's tendencies to blow up. SpaceX, by being a private company, is free to take risks and have rockets explode (if they're unmanned that is) without much repercussions as they're a private company, not the US government. They've had 7 unmanned rockets explode and several more reusable lander's fail in their course to develop cheaper, reusable rockets, which had NASA done themselves would have been a national embarrassment, but because it was a private company they were free to take those risks to learn from their mistakes

In the absence of government funding, what's the alternative to private companies?

The whole point is that there shouldn't be an absence. The absence is there because of the private corporations. This is another insidious tendril of capitalism.

I agree wholeheartedly. Public money is being funneled into the MIC, of which SpaceX is now an integral part. If that same money or even a significant fraction had been instead alotted to NASA since the moon landings, we'd have bases on Titan already.

However, I want to see us touch the stars. And right now, it's pretty much only SpaceX that has the drive and capital to get there.

That's an odd question because government programs aren't and shouldn't be in areas to make a profit, aka act like a private company. They need to act where private sector can't, won't, or can't do it well and when there is an important stake. Eg roads, schools, healthcare, police, firefighters, etc. This is why people are telling you it's unlikely SpaceX would be around without government contracts and funding.

Privatizing a new space race is maybe the best idea the government has had in decades. NASA isn't mothballed, quite the opposite. They're doing more, faster, and with fewer costs.

NASA was never gonna figure out reusable rockets.

Pretty sure they did ages ago, that was kinda the point of the space shuttel program. And thats just the most notable attempt, the DC-X is another example. Reusable rockets are just kinda inefficient for a lot of shit.

The DC-X/Delta Clipper was really cool, but the Space Shuttle was a design-by-committee safety and maintenance disaster. VentureStar didn't go much better either, though that was mostly Lockheed.

NASA's had the tech, the expertise, and the will for a while, but the political process was never going to give them permission to do anything more than slow-moving rehashes and incremental evolutions of old technology.

Are you suggesting Falcon 9 is an inefficient rocket?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_orbital_launch_systems

https://i.imgur.com/3wwQHqK.png

I mean please, forgive my imperfect analogy and call Edison an asshole, but for the love of all that is good don't embarrass yourself by claiming electricity is useless.

Reread what I typed, reusablle rockets have their place but they can become rather inefficient or even outright wasteful depending on the circumstances. Remember it takes about a lot of energy to land something coming down from orbit, that means more fuel, more fuel means more weight. And sometimes it better to put that fuel and weight into putting more shit into orbit.

Remember it takes about a lot of energy to land something coming down from orbit, that means more fuel, more fuel means more weight. And sometimes it better to put that fuel and weight into putting more shit into orbit.

…That sounds like bull, and quick back-of-the-envelope arithmetic shows there's probably no way it's true in the general sense.

Falcon 9 LEO payload, expended: 22.8t
Payload, recovered: 17.4t
Structural material: Various aero-grade aluminium alloys.
First stage dry mass: 25.6t
Propellant mass (LOX+RP-1): 395.7t
Second stage dry mass: 3.9t
Propellant mass: 92.67t

CO₂ emissions to produce aluminium: 2t·CO₂/t·Al to 20+t·CO₂/t·Al
(Depending on whether fossil fuels are used— Al is very energy-intensive. MINIMUM. Does not include mining, alumina, alloying, machining, etc.)

CO₂ emissions to burn LOX+RP-1: ~0.8t·CO₂/t·Fuel

The launch kinematics shouldn't change too much otherwise, so assume the difference in payload approximately correlates to the fuel amount that must be saved— Oversimplifying and overly linear, I know. (I'm not breaking out Tsiolkovsky for this. You do it, if you want.):

(25.6t * (2t/t)) / ((22.8t - 17.4t) * (0.8t/t))

In even the most conservative scenario, the carbon footprint of the extra fuel to land a Falcon 9 will be somewhere in the neighbourhood of 12X less than even just the raw material costs to replace the aluminium in it.

If we assume a more typical US aluminium production process for a US company, resulting in 11t·CO₂/t·A instead of 2t·CO₂/t·A:

(25.6t * (11t/t)) / ((22.8t - 17.4t) * (0.8t/t))

…Then we're looking at the carbon footprint of the fuel to reuse a rocket being 65X lower the carbon footprint of replacing it. This is still not even counting either the actual mining, preprocessing, and alloying of the aluminium ore nor the machining nor the rocket structure, so the real number will be even higher.

…In fact, it looks like nearly half of all the carbon emissions from a rocket launch are likely to come from just manufacturing the rocket, not even the fuel it burns. I'm honestly pretty surprised by this too; You'd think, and I've always personally assumed, that the big tank of carbon-based fuel and not the thin sheet of metal around it would release the most CO₂, but apparently not.

((25.6t + 3.9t) * (11t/t)) / ((395.7t + 92.67t) * (0.8t/t))

I guess it makes sense when you remember that GHG costs for other types of vehicles are usually amortized over the useful lifespan of the vehicle in question.

Reusable rockets are just kinda inefficient for a lot of shit.

Remember it takes about a lot of energy to land something coming down from orbit,

This entire premise is somewhere between false and dishonest or misinformed. It costs basically zero energy to land something coming down from orbit, compared to what you've already spent to send it up there in the first place, because all you have to do is lower your periapsis into the atmosphere and then fire a quick thrust burst for a couple seconds to land at the end once air drag has done all the hard work of bringing you down from hypersonic to subsonic terminal velocity. The Saturn V had to be millions of tonnes to get to the Moon, but the command module and capsule to get back was kinematically basically one step above an inert rock with a couple of whoopee cushions strapped to the back.

Call out the shitty labour practices, security risks, and deeply problematic political and economic injustices. But don't try to lie about physics.

Firstly I wasnt even thinking about co2 emisions and was thinking almost exclusively in total mass movement. Secondly when I was refering to the amount of fuel required for slow down for landing I was more so thinking yet again in total mass. Almost all of my points on the matter had to do with the idea of alocating energy toward putting stuff in space.

If you can realocate fuel toward moving stuff further into space for example. I doubt think the falcon is completely bad either, just that it has its niche. If memory serves me right its mostly doing things like putting satalites into orbit, thats a great use of a reuasble rocket.

All I was stating is that such rockets can be kinda inefficient for certain jobs. To put it in nautical terms you wouldnt use a fishing trawler as heavy cargo ship.

Perhaps this is showing my ignorance for arospace shit, IDK but as I understand it more fuel and less mass means you can get shit farther. Thats all I was really thinking.

Firstly I wasnt even thinking about co2 emisions and was thinking almost exclusively in total mass movement. Secondly when I was refering to the amount of fuel required for slow down for landing I was more so thinking yet again in total mass. Almost all of my points on the matter had to do with the idea of alocating energy toward putting stuff in space.

What do you think the GHG from the manufacturing comes from? Expendable rockets means you're "al[l]ocating energy toward putting stuff in space" much less efficiently because you're spending (apparently) much more fuel and energy to replace the rocket.

If you meant "total mass and fuel in the rocket", then frankly that's an arbitrary and cherry-picked metric in this context. If you're talking about the social impact and technological history of first NASA then SpaceX developing reusable rockets, then "efficiency" should include everything that they're paying for.

I doubt think the falcon is completely bad either, just that it has its niche. If memory serves me right its mostly doing things like putting satalites into orbit, thats a great use of a reuasble rocket.

…So its "niche" is… Literally the entire thing that space launch rockets are scientifically and economically useful for???

Literally every space mission, outside of like upper atmospheric research sounding rocket launches (which aren't really relevant to space launch), is "putting satellites into orbit" (regardless of whether those artificial satellites house crew that they're then going to ferry Mars, or whether they're just there to relay your cat gifs).

All I was stating is that such rockets can be kinda inefficient for certain jobs. To put it in nautical terms you wouldnt use a fishing trawler as heavy cargo ship.

"For certain jobs"— Yeah, no, not really, at least unless you can name those "certain jobs".

Sometimes a payload is too heavy for reusable mode but still okay for expendable mode. But that's not really being "inefficient", just too small, and would be more efficiently solved with a bigger reusable rocket. And there are certification and supply chain concerns which mean that expendable systems like SLS and Ariane 6 still sorta have a place for now, but that's not really an efficiency issue either.

But overall, from tiny cubesats to massive moon landings, reusable rockets are consistently and increasingly demonstrating significant efficiency advantages in all areas of spaceflight, because as it turns out, despite all of Chief Twit's mistakes and harms, throwing away the rocket after you use it once was in fact just a sorta dumb way to do things in the first place.

Perhaps this is showing my ignorance for arospace shit, IDK but as I understand it more fuel and less mass means you can get shit farther. Thats all I was really thinking.

Yeah… I feel like you're getting defensive because I might have come across as trying to dunk on you… Which is... Fair enough, I guess, and sorry if I came across that way.

And I get not wanting to like anything that Musk's tied his name to. But you presented yourself as an authorative/informed speaker on a technical subject, while making a claim that simply isn't true.

Von Braun came up with the concept for a reusable rocket in the 50s. Not being able to figure it out was not the issue.

Von Braun was a true genius!

And a horrible Nazi. Let's not forget that. The U.S. tried to make everyone forget that.

But yes, he was a genius.

oh I know! It's just that some humans throughout history had this insane amount of intelligence and creativity and they jumped our level of technology, and our understanding of the universe by decades, or arguably even more! It always blows my mind that there are people like that

You strike me as an academic that struggles to appreciate the value of applied physics and engineering.

Because Von Braun came up with the concept of the reusable rocket in the 50s?

Because Von Braun's contribution was small in comparison to what SpaceX R&D contributed.

But that seems lost on you, it was certainly not obvious to you.

Yes, because Von Braun's idea wasn't funded. It would have worked had it been funded. That's the whole point.

Too bad he didn't have a rich asshole without a clue about engineering to accidentally stumble upon him and his work then.

Or they should've never left this to the private sector if there was going to be a strategic component to it. Now they're at the mercy of an unstable foreign national, who is himself beholden to a bunch of foreign investors.

Turns out unregulated capitalism might be slightly at odds with democracy.

The most insane part is that they never even entered into a contract with Starlink to provide service. Starlink is the backbone of Ukraine's communications infrastructure, and it's shocking that the DoD and the Ukraine Armed Forces never thought "hey we should get a contract with Musk so we can ensure he keeps Starlink available throughout the war". For such a critical service, they were content with dealing with Starlink directly and having Elon subsidize it personally, giving him a large degree of control over one of the most vital components of Ukrainian communications, rather than what they eventually did by going through the DoD to negotiate a contract with Elon using taxpayer dollars

Yep this. They privatize everything then complain when it doesn't go their way.

You don’t fucking blackmail the government

lol, only he obviously is, so....
And I guarantee he was long before starlink - the riches man on earth doesn't get that way and stay that way without owning at least a handful of politicians (and now his own media outlet of which he has absolute control and millions of existing followers ready to worship his every word).

I genuinely don't understand how anyone can still look at anything this man does and think it's benign, or worse, clueless..

Time to revoke any clearances he has and refuse to renew any contracts with the government.

You know, it seems like something like this should be illegal. Maybe name it something like the Logan Act.

On the phone, Musk said that he was looking at his laptop and could see “the entire war unfolding” through a map of Starlink activity. “This was, like, three minutes before he said, ‘Well, I had this great conversation with Putin,’ ” the senior defense official told me. “And we were, like, ‘Oh, dear, this is not good.’ ”

It's like the Elon India Tea Company. Strange to think we've got so many individuals that rival any sort of elected officials and that our government is becoming aware of this. Elon in particular seems to have the US over several barrels, space, battlefield communications, recharge stations, and now Twitter and AI possibly from the bottom of a k hole.

Wild, also: I forget how good the New Yorker is. That whole article was fascinating. I feel like I learned a lot and it was interesting.

Boy if only the pentagon had a way to deal with rogue actors, I wonder what they’re in charge of

Sounds like the octagon didnt get it done, so we might as well give another shape a try.

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So he is.. breaking the US law.

Yes. If he talks with Putin about "government policy" or "international relations" then he has to register with the US government as doing so.

It's against the law to privately speak with foreign nations about those categories. It may put you at odds with US policy or maybe you dont see the whole picture, so it's better in the US eyes to ban foreign diplomacy by private citizens.

🤔 What about Dennis Rodman when he would talk with Kim Jong Il?

Ooh, he used to talk to Putin too, didn't he? I wonder if Russia and North Korea were enacting some long-game plan against us.

Then the question everyone should ask him on Twitter/X is... "Are you an agent of foreign principal?"

How can we call our system a democracy when one unelected man can hold so much power?

Look at Rupert Murdoch. He unquestionably holds more power than Musk and has been at it for a long time. Democracy is an illusion, since people are very easily influenced by the media they consume.

Better education that emphasizes skepticism and critical thinking would do so much to fight the influence of media.

If hitler was alive he'd boast he personally spoke to him as well as if it was some kind of achievement

Ein reich? Ein Volk? Ein Führer?

Interesting.

“arrest me for espionage and/or treason, please"

They can't arrest him. In the U.S., we have a wealth threshold above which there is no accountability.

The only reason trump is being held accountable is because he isn't a billionaire. If you count his debts, he probably isn't even a millionaire.

His son-in-law Jared sold secrets to the Saudis for billions, but now he's a billionaire so he cannot be held accountable for being a spy and a traitor. That's how we do things in the U.S. The wealthy cannot be held accountable here.

Struggling implies that they tried anything

They should get that guy the Flanders's used and spank Elon for a year until he's not a turd any more.

Elon is already plenty annoying. I couldn't imagine how much more so he'd be if he started talking like Flanders. (Iirc that spanking was the reason Ned began using the gibberish).