Add to this, he blew off doing his probation report. Some people say it was because of the drug test. That's also a negative factor in sentencing.
Do you have a source for that? I know people were speculating he might not show up, but I haven't seen reporting confirming one way or another.
He hasn't submitted to it YET, but there's still time.
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-may-blow-off-his-pre-sentence-probation-interview-2024-5
That’s also a negative factor in sentencing.
If it were anyone but Trump, I'd agree with you.
But this is Trump. Even Merchan has allowed Trump to play by a completely different set of rules (violating the gag order 10 times and still not being thrown in jail, as an example). He has also been openly hesitant about the idea of throwing Trump in jail.
Trump not participating was predicted from day one, and I doubt even Merchan expected otherwise. With that said, I still think the chances of him seeing any jail time are all but nonexistent. He will either get a non-incarceration sentence, house arrest, or probation (most likely). And even if he does get probation, there is no chance that he is going to be forced to report to some NY probation officer. Most likely, he'll end up somehow striking some deal where one of his lackey lawyers shows up on his behalf and pinky swears that he is being a good boy, and after about the 14th or 15th probation violation, he'll receive his first warning that further violations may someday make them consider the possibility of having a meeting about it.
But this is Trump. Even Merchan has allowed Trump to play by a completely different set of rules (violating the gag order 10 times and still not being thrown in jail, as an example). He has also been openly hesitant about the idea of throwing Trump in jail.
During the trial. The argument I have seen for why Trump has gotten away with playing by completely different rules is that if the judge or prosecution makes absolutely any wrong step in procedure, the kind of lawyers Trump hires will jump on that and can push for all sorts of ways to shut down the case on procedural grounds (mistrial? Forgive me I'm not an expert), and based on the nature of this case, that would shut it down for good. But the trial is now over, so that argument should no longer apply. The options on the table for Trump's lawyers interfering with the sentencing are significantly reduced compared to trial, so the judge should be able to go for a really harsh sentencing, particularly for the reasons in this article. We'll see if the procedural mistrial argument really was the explanation, or just another rationalization of the 2-tiered justice system.
Well I think the judge usually considers the defendant's job. And that is where he'll not get house arrest or community service... his lawyers will correctly argue that Trump is campaigning for his job as president, so is expected to be in different states almost daily and or travelling a lot for at least 6 more months. Thus it would be an unfair sentencing if it limited him to earn a buck.
Same will be argued for prison time but ofcourse that is a whole different ballgame and a judge could finalize that sentence but put it on a delay for like 2025.
I don't think the rules change magicaly because it's Trump
Maybe not, but the application of the rules certainly seems to change.
Fact is the rules of the criminal courts process didn't change, nor the application of those rules.
Like contempt and gag order violations?
He was fined repeatedly for those at the maximum amount possible
He received a warning after ten violations, which would land a normal schmuck like you or me in jail several times over.
Never mind that a fine for a wealthy person is not justice.
One of the purposes of being thrown in jail for contempt is so there is a method to punish the wealthy when monetary fines aren't a deterrent. Fining Trump $10k for ten different violations is a prime example of this -- Fining him $10k is like fining you and me a nickel. It's not a deterrent in any form. Especially in a case like this where any one of those violations could have cost someone their lives, he should have been thrown in jail.
And there's not a chance in hell that anyone else would still be walking free after violating a court order ten fucking times.
They certainly appear to.
IMO the judge was fair and did not give too much deference to the defendant.
How many times do you think you could violate a gag order before you get thrown in jail?
Your interpretation may not be the same as the judge. It's always judgement call on their part, and it turned out to be a min9r issue after ruling.
I wouldn't call stochastic terrorism "minor."
Let's review what happened. The gag order was placed on Trump. Per procedure, the prosecution informed the judge that Trump had broken it. The judge held a special hearing on this and asked the prosecutor for curative measures suggested. The judge agreed to this cure and fined Trump. The Trump tonned it down for a time allowing the end of the trail. That's how a gag order is supposed to work.
The fairest thing might be a suspended sentence, if that's allowed in NY. The judge could impose a 3-6 month sentence, but suspend it pending completion of 2-4 years' probation. If Trump complies with the terms of the probation, he's formally let off the hook for the jail time.
I don't think any judge wants to be the one who throws a Presidential Candidate in jail, and this leaves that decision solely to Trump. And for all we talk that he probably wants to go to jail because he can get more Martyr points, in this case the jail would be Rikers Island, which is a horrible place. Trump probably has the low-down from Weissleberg about how bad it is there, even in isolation. If given that choice, Trump might actually comply with probation.
I don't think any judge wants to be the one who throws a Presidential Candidate in jail
The political backlash would be difficult, but a judge being able to state "in my courtroom no one, NO ONE, is above the law" would be a great career thing.
Merchan allowed it, yes, but the prosecutors never asked for jail for his contempt charges. Trump also received a warning at his hearing where he was found in contempt and afterwards did comply (technically).
To add to this :
4 Trumps gain from the crime was to become the most powerful man in the world
5 Trump would do it again, and is in a position to do it again right now
Given these, how can he not go to jail. A money fine is nothing compared to what he gained and could gain again.
You’re right about Trump deserving far more jail time, don’t get me wrong.
But the charges are not the same, and aren’t even in the same jurisdiction.
I know what I'm about to say is not going to get a ton of love here buuuut....
I'd argue that if you're a former president, you SHOULD get deferential sentencing. Too much potential for abuse otherwise. Imagine if Trump won in 2024 and suddenly Biden's document retention case got re-opened and he got the harshest possible sentence.
Similarly but separately, major party nominees should get deferential sentencing. It's an influence on the political process, and you should err on the side of having less influence. If you lock up a nominee so they can't campaign, it's not really a fair election. ESPECIALLY when it's a crime from 8 years ago.
Like, still get sentenced within the guidelines of the crime, but just towards the more lenient edge. If someone is guilty of murder you can't NOT put them in prison. But if the penalty for the crime doesn't require prison, it's quite a leap to get to prison on a former president, current nominee.
I get that you are trying to explain a method to prevent the system from being abused against political rivals. But Trump was unanimously found guilty of 34 counts by a jury. He attacked the judge, the court and the jury during the trial, and continues to disregard the law. It will send a clear message that he is above the law if he gets a lesser sentence than Cohen.
Presidents are above the law while they're in office. This case is unique because it happened before he was in office. The message that will really be sent is "wait until you're actually president to do would-be illegal shit".
Still worth handing him a harsh sentence, just to put the orange fascist fuck behind bars, but there shouldn't be any misconceptions about some true notion of justice here. Trump is just a moron, and didn't know how to play the game correctly.
Every time I learn a new thing about our government it looks even more fucked up and unworkable. I know those guys were on laudenum and cocaine and drunk off their asses when they wrote the Constitution but goddamn were they fucked up.
34 Felonies, interfering with the election that got him to be president.... Yeah, lock his ass up. He's gotten away with enough bullshit his entire life that if it were anyone else that didn't have a rich daddy, they'd been in jail decades ago for decades to come.
Counterpoint is that with great power, comes great responsibility, and those at the top should have even MORE oversight and even harsher penalties when they step out of line. For some reason (well, it's not much of a mystery - it's about power and money), it's completely backwards - those in power are almost never accountable for anything they do.