New Poll Shows RFK Jr. Siphoning More Votes From Trump Than Biden
mediaite.com
A new poll shows President Joe Biden leading Trump 44% to 37%, with Kennedy notching 16%.
Released by Marist in partnership with NPR and PBS Newshour on Tuesday, the poll shows a five-point drop among Democrats for Biden with Kennedy in the race. Meanwhile, the survey indicates a 10-point drop among Republicans for Trump with RFK Jr. on the ticket.
Again, national polls are meaningless since we don't run national elections.
They give a general idea of how the public will vote when it comes to spoiler candidates. No, they don't consider regional differences, but I wouldn't say they are meaningless.
Not saying polls don't have their worth, but you can make polls say basically whatever you want.
"poll of 2,000 people of varying ages, genders, backgrounds" when they stood out in front of a music theater to get opinions on modern rap music. The results are biased because of how they collected them. Yeah, technically everyone coming out of that theater fits your "different ages sexes" and so on, but they're all going to have strong opinions based on why they have gathered in common interest.
That is not how Marist works. I showed their methodology in another comment.
gotta block this user. someone this uninformed about things has no business ever being in front of my eyes again.
That's not how polling works.
Small sample size national polls are always the first line of polling.
They are not meaningless, even if they don't have the same precision as exit polling.
What I mean is, thanks to the electoral college, running a national poll as though it means anything is pointless.
We saw this in 2016 with Clinton. National polling showed her winning, and as far as the popular vote was concerned, she won.
Which means jack all in the electoral college.
I understand that, but you are just too black and white.
There is a middle ground of indicative truth between being 100% precise or totally wrong.
Polling showed Clinton as being most likely to win. The fact that she didn’t win doesn’t mean the polling is necessarily meaningless. Even if someone has a 90% chance of winning, it means they can not only lose, but 1 in 10 times you expect them to lose.
Exactly. The polls showed that Trump had a small chance of winning and he did. It's just like with the weather. When there's a 90% chance of rain and it doesn't rain, people say the weather person knows nothing, but that's not how it works.
Seems to me that your mistake is that you believe the purpose of polls is to predict an outcome, and/or tell you who is “winning” or “losing” at a given point in time. That is not their purpose.
Their purpose is to gauge the relative effectiveness of different campaign messaging strategies, and to give a rough order of magnitude of a campaign’s trajectory.
Here’s the most important part: polls contain no actionable data for voters. They shouldn’t influence whether or how much you volunteer or donate, and they absolutely must not influence how you vote.
They seem pretty meaningless to me, they've been way off the last couple elections.
Who is actually being polled, and how? I know damn well that neither myself nor anybody I personally know has been polled.
So true! Also, even if this data is 100% accurate, that means 16% of people prefer him to Trump (or Biden). But come election day, the one thing Republicans can be counted on to do is to check the box next to the 'R' candidate, no matter what.
It will be interesting to see what effect he has on turnout, if any...
"I refuse to believe this poll because PBS and NPR are secretly controlled by the Tri-lateral commission, the Pro Bowlers Tour and Baskin-Robbins. Do your own research!"
Also, dippin' dots is NOT the ice cream of the future! (This needs to come back, it was wonderful)
Dippin dots almost went away for good! lucky for them, the plant-based meat substitute industry needed a way to get little drops of fatty stuff cooled down so it could be easily mixed, like fat is distributed through hamburger.
And wouldn't you know it, Dippin Dots had a crazy idea...
Here I was thinking it was the COVID vaccine storage consulting they did
Really dude? Baskin Robbins? We all know the world is run by the DQ cabal. There's really no other way to explain how they're still in business in spite of their absolutely revolting food
People eat their food? The one and only thing I ever buy there is a dipped vanilla soft serve cone (butterscotch if they have it, cherry if they don’t). They do that right!
There is no way this jaggoff is polling at 16%.
16% is basically frustration with the other choices available. It's not the percentage that would actually vote for him if an election were held tomorrow. It is a bit high considering how awful RFK is, but it just shows how incredibly unpopular the other options are.
Well duh, he's a Qanon freak
They were banking on Democrats seeing "Kennedy" and blindly pulling that lever.
A certain Louisiana Kennedy comes to mind.
A 10-point swing on the 2020 results would give Biden Florida, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, and North Carolina.
A million bucks says RFK J. drops out for a spot on trumps cabinet
I'm done making bets on anything about Trump's actions. He's way too chaotic and high on his own supply. There's just no way to predict his actions. He very well might think he can take on RFK and that all the polls are wrong.
Let me ask my WOMAN about OMAN
Trump's cabinetTrump's jailhouse gangI really hope that they get completely crushed in the election. The strongest message possible has to be sent. One where they can’t claim the election was stolen or any bullshit excuse (of course they will still try).
This has to be the end of trump and his cronies or it’s going to be the end of us as a nation. There’s no middle ground at all.
A solitary vote should, in theory, be enough. I agree with hoping for a strong message, however we shouldn't normalize cheating in elections. We should combat it by shoring up the election process and system not either side winning by bigger margins.
However, a profound defeat may make it more obvious to those in the future that not rooting out problems early leads to long term losses not gains. Make fair elections to be in their interest.
Yeah no shit the party of anti-vaxxers and lying about history is more susceptible to grifters.
Makes sense because only non-starters would vote for a highball douchebag Kennedy like little Robbie.
Nobody wants your brand Rob. Rich, drunk, drug user, crazy, dumb fuck.
Nobody wants that.
Funny, I've been told by right-wing commenters that RFK Jr is "Democrats' kryptonite". Are you saying they have no idea what they're talking about, and their model of the inner workings of anyone to the left of Mitch McConnell is faulty?
My 64 year old father who doesn't really pay attention to politics brought up RFK Jr as trouble for Biden. He seemed disappointed when I said the vaccine conspiracy and not supporting Ukraine would sink him.
It's weird to hear him bring up Kennedy Jr out of the blue like that. He's been drowning himself in crypto currency stuff these last few years, so it's not a good sign that he's started talking about the WEF and shit like that.
Might be good to have some politics chats, in particular about propaganda and right wing indoctrination via crypto, YouTube and right wing media. He's obviously getting some kind of influence and there are too many stories about parents being lost to hatred and fear, despite being perfectly normal in the years prior.
kennedy getting favorable coverage for republican media tends to affect republicans.
One thing that's been nice on Lemmy so far is we can actually discuss polls without all the top level posts being something along the lines of "Don't listen to polls, VOTE!".... as if anyone who subs to the politics section of a social media site doesn't know voting is important.
I agree, but I still think you might be surprised how many actually don't sometimes or always in practice. I would assume it's less than the average person, but it's not zero.
as a foreign national I can't vote, only listen to polls so...
Me too. I'll never visit America even, just caught up in the drama.
Our political system might be fucked up, but at least it does produce a lot of drama. You're welcome world (or we're sorry if it caused you harm).
I'm actually curious how accurate/meaningful this poll is, and whether we found expect to see this continue over the year.
If he pulls enough from Biden to cause the contingent election scenario (in which case, the incoming congress decides the winner not by voting seats, but with each state delegation able to cast 1 vote) it might not matter to the GOP if RFK pulls more from Trump than from Biden.
If you game out the probabilities- It's very unlikely that Trump beats Biden It's also unlikely that RFK gets enough votes to deny Biden an outright win, but is it less so? It's very likely that the GOP will control more state delegations than the Democrats will, by virtue of their state-level gerrymanders.
The contingent election moonshot might be the GOP's best shot at winning control of the White House in 2024
It does matter if it causes some states to flip to Biden instead of trump and give their college votes to Biden instead of trump.
Thank fuck.
Cheryl Hines is probably wishing she could get together with Larry David IRL these days
She’s the biggest surprise here. I can’t believe she married this doofus. Not that I know anything about her beyond curb. But I would have hoped she wasn’t on the antivax conspiracy train and it unfortunately appears that she is.
Lololol. That's why the con insiders flipped on this crazy asshole and they were sounding the alarm a few weeks ago. I wonder if their dipshit base will get the memo? I bet missives have been sent out to all their grievance networks to start demonizing this guy...or at least not be propping him up in the hopes that just enough low-info type voters pull the lever for this guy instead of Biden...
Good.
How are these polls conducted? Because the sample may be skewed.
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables-2024_202310131239.pdf
that's cuz he's crazy as well
These news articles is like movie spoilers.
I mean, I hope they're right. But let them eat their own face.
Pretty amazing how the voting pools are putting him at 16 % already. He could finnaly reform the two party system.
I don’t know about that. He could split the Republican Party in two, but it would either reform into a new Republican Party or be replaced by another party. It will eventually be two parties again, because that’s what our system naturally results in.
They should lobotomize this fucker like that other Kennedy.