It's time for Russia to concede territory and end the war for the sake of all Russians.
Maybe the Russians will be better off under Ukrainian control.
That seems highly probable but let's be real here: That's a pretty low bar.
You would need a shovel just to find the bar.
I could do the trick, really. Fucking Big Bird from Sesame Street could do a better job.
I bet Big Bird would actually be a pretty solid leader.
Really Fucking Big Bird sounds terrifying.
I mean there are Ukrainian people living there right now. According to the argumentation in the past this area basically belongs to Ukraine now. They could make a referendum about this topic 🤔
Three days to Kyiv, what could go wrong?
Some Tankie argued with me about that because he told me to find a quote from Putin where he literally said that. Like, does that matter? That was the general Russian sentiment.
I don't think Putin publicly said it to br fair. It's something that was said by Russian propagandists and there was a leaked FSB report claiming that Putin also believed it.
Clearly things are not going according to plan for Russia though, regardless of they thought it'd take three days or three months. Their actions in the initial hours and days of the war also seemed to indicate they were aiming for a quick decapitation.
I don't think he did either, but it's a silly request to make because it was very obvious that, even if the 'three days' thing wasn't literal, they expected the war to be over very quickly and they would roll into Kyiv with little resistance.
Very true. It's really frustrating having a discussion with those people because they never seem to argue in good faith. I honestly don't think they can possibly believe some of the unhinged stuff they say.
Apparently Lukashenko said the "Kyiv in three days" part. I can't find a good source to link, though.
Ukraine should immediately and publicly offer peace terms with Russia:
Both countries reset to *1991 borders. Each nation immediately leaves others' territory
Return any captured Ukrainian men, women, and children
Russian reparations for people, land, equipment destroyed or stolen
Kremlin leaders responsible for invasion to face an international tribunal
This would show that Ukraine is reasonable but still allowed to defend itself. But more importantly, it would shut up the boot-licking tankies who muddy the waters and falsely claim that bOtH SiDeS are invading each other...
You need war score of 100% to enforce those demands
Must be some weird AI bug, because in defensive wars you almost always get your allies to join.
Yeah bro, can't even click on this proposal without holding Moscow. This is a wishlist.
They will never ever return those children. And if they somehow did, a lot of them were so young that they won't recognize their real parents. The magnitude of that crime is absolutely staggering.
*1991 borders
Sorry, they've invaded so much, I lost track.
1991 borders
You right.
Realistically they could trade this for Donbas and POWs. Crimea would take something larger, like the city of Kursk.
I'm pretty sure Crimea wouldn't like that deal.
And so Ukraine starts a special operation on Russian territory to defeat the Nazi regime and save the Ukrainian majority population.
Oh shit, they've actually captured the area and are holding it? That's pretty significant! If they can keep this up, then maybe they can force Russia to concede? ...Though any russian deal to end the war obviously won't be honoured, which does make it a bit of a conundrum. Still, this is a good thing.
Ukraine is not dug in, but it definitely seems like Russia's front line around Kursk is collapsing, and Ukraine has the initiative here.
Russia's border defense turned out to be mostly conscripts who got the fuck out of the way and/or surrendered the minute the fighting got remotely serious. And behind them is a whole lot of nothing until they hit the secondary lines which are, one would assume, a little more solid and based on natural obstacles like rivers and cities.
The contract soldiers are better, but they're also on the frontline.
So basically the same quality defenses that rolled over when the Wagner guy started his march to Moscow...
That guy was such a moron. Once you start something like that, you'd best see it through or die trying (rather than die a short time later on other people's terms).
So what about going around the rear and attacking Donbass from the russian side? I have no further knowledge, just spitballing here
That’s the kind of military plan hitler would order after a bit too much meth, to get to Rostov Ukraine would need to go hundreds of miles behind enemy lines with no logistics
Hitler also used the largest invasion force in history (3.8 million troops, vs 3 million for the Nazi invasion of France or 2 million for the allied invasion France). And still failed so badly he lost the entire war.
Though it is hard to compare them because the contexts are so different. Russia isn't as motivated this time as USSR was in the 1940s.
There's no way they realistically hold or capture any of this. They just don't have the logistics. But it's an amazing opportunity to create a dilemma for Russia. They either 1) ignore it and let Ukrainian forces rampage around in Russian territory unopposed or 2) they redeploy forces from the front to defend Russian territory.
The Ukrainian forces should stay nimble either way, and retreat without too big a fight back to their own territory in the latter case, hopefully having caused enough of a diversion for a counteroffensive where they need it.
To add to that, on a map it all looks small, so you can imagine: go here, get there. But to actually "cross the front in the opposite direction into Donetsk region" they would need to cover about 300 km - quick, unprotected and without any logistical support, or slow but sure, but this is what they might plan anyway. They will probably try to widen the gap and dismantle the border defences
There’s an interesting possibility 3 …. Not that I have any idea about what is realistic in this war, but what if the goal is actual fighting? The active front is dig in and fatal to anything that moves: advancing is next to impossible. However western weapons were meant for speed, maneuverability. What if they draw Russia out to a fight on Western terms?
They could probably pull some gorilla attacks off behind their lines, but there's no way they have the logistics to do a full assault on the rear. The best option would probably be to harass Russian supply lines.
Flanking attacks snowball when you collapse the fortified lines and link up with your own forward deployed troops.
mostly conscripts who got the fuck out of the way and/or surrendered the minute the fighting got remotely serious.
Who said that there weren't any wise people in the Russian army?
Last I checked it looked like they had breached some major lines of defence, which means they may be past the worst of minefields etc. If they have room to manoeuvre for real by the time the russians send more forces the russians are going to have a real bad time trying to respond to this.
I strongly believe that Russia is preparing a more serious response. They just were not prepared for this, so didn't have defenses in place. Better to retreat and cede some territory than wasting troops in a losing battle. Since their land is so large, they can still come back later and reconquer.
Also, Ukraine can't use that many troops to actually fortify the region, given that they are also under heavy pressure at the more southern fronts.
And, 130 square miles is tiny compared to all the territory that Russia got so far.
Well, I believe the biggest win about this is for morale. Russians get scared because the war is now in their country, and Ukrainians get a buffer zone.
Yeah, I assume this is a dual purpose morale booster and demoralizerm Ukraine shows that Russias defenses are a paper tiger because they relied on threats and it will force Russia to respond with troops, either by pulling from the front lines or reinforcements. Either way it moves the fighting to Russian land and that will demoralize support in Russia.
Plus they can disrupt more supply lines and war manufacturing locations by going around the border defenses. They don't even need to hold ground, just be a thorn in Russia's side.
Also, Putin may need to divert resources from Ukraine and halt advances there earlier than intended.
Of course, if Putin drops a tactical nuke inside of Russia's internationally-recognized boarders, will the world care? And if so, how much? Could backfire on Ukraine a bit in the short-term.
I believe any live use of a nuclear weapon would result in near universal sanctioning, including by Beijing
Of course, if Putin drops a tactical nuke inside of Russia’s internationally-recognized boarders, will the world care?
Yes, they will care about nuclear fallout blowing across Europe at a minimum.
Slava Ukraini!
I believe that's more than Russia has advanced in a year
Am area the size of Philly. Whew that's gonna worry Russia.
IIRC it's to smash the gas pipelines. If they want to actually hold this they're gonna have a hard time. Maybe they can turn it into a flanking move or something, otherwise it has the makings of a "high water mark" moment like Gettysburg.
IIRC it’s to smash the gas pipelines.
It's to make Russia either destroy the facilities in order to dislodge the UAF and retake the area or show weakness and allow the capture to stand for a period.
Those gas pipelines run through Ukraine, don’t they? If they wanted to cut off the pipeline they didn’t need to cross the border to do that.
As long as they don't fight uphill!
ME BOYS!
Russia is having a hard time because everyone working for Putin is a con man grifter. Some are, in addition to being frauds, also dumb as fuck.
350 sq km, to compare to the previous headline I saw of 200 sq km.
on to moscow!
And they will dig in probably, forcing Russian troops to use their destroy and advance tactic on their own villages.
Surprise move by Ukraine! Watch Russia nuke their own territory to be able to use a nuke to look strong, dangerous and unpredictable and not get in trouble for it.
(This is a joke)
They've been telling people they'll nuke anyone that crosses their border that nothing happening now is a letdown. It's like discovering the gang of bikers all have rub on tattoos.
They've actually threatened to nuke themselves? o.O
Belka moment
This wouldnt have been related to the F-16s in action now would it?
I know they are wicked overpowered comepared to a lot of Russian aircraft, but do they have this sort of range?
do they have this sort of range
You mean 6 miles?
Ok. I see why that is silly yes.
I don't know how far away from the border the fighters take off from. I also don't know how altitude plays into the whole combat and range thing. For all I know, they take off 300 miles away from the border, cruise at 30k feet, fly lower, drop some bombs, fly back up at 30k and head another 300 miles back.
I don't actually know if 600 miles is a long distance for an F-16 but it is a small plane.
I also don't know how big Ukraine is thinking about it.
Yep.
The range is both very important and not applicable to your question. Ukraine fighters will always reach the war zone, whatever range they have, because fighters with less capacity will take-off closer to it and thus be more at risk.
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Don't get cocky, everyone. Remember nuclear warfare has been flirted with.
I don't think there's much that can be done for Russia using nuclear missiles on their own territory and that would be why Ukraine's in an area of value, protecting them from that happening. They won't be controlling territory much larger while an Su-35 with a nuclear loadout is waiting for them to stray enough kilometres away from the critical infrastructure.
Consider it a siege attempt on resource, not a counter attack for territory.
Edit: Holy shit. I'm clearly referring to the tactical nukes. How did y'all forget that, gloss over the rest of the comment, and go straight to silo level atomic bombs decimating the region and spreading fallout across EU? Fucking hell, this place some times...
Brains. Use them. What kind of nuke did people think an SU-35 could even carry?
Nuclear bombs would have fallout that blows across Europe.
Ukraine doesn't need to defend any territory it has taken, it just needs to be a constant thorn in Russia's side.
Also, some countries have stated that they would consider fallout blowing into their country as a trigger to invoke NATO Article 5.
I don’t think there’s much that can be done for Russia using nuclear missiles on their own territory
It's a great way for Russia to instantly lose the war. How fast do you think the EU gets involved when they have radiation on their borders?
I believe, and my memory in this is a little hazy, that Poland already said they'd trigger article 5 if they got screwed with radiation so I suppose the answer to your question is either
Their nukes probably aren't even operational. They weren't maintaining their other equipment, so odds are they aren't maintaining the nukes, which if they use they already lost, so are effectively worthless except as a threat.
Assuming their nukes work, they can't nuke Ukraine. The reason why nukes aren't used is because the damage is uncontrollable. The fallout would effect large portions of Russia too. Think about how much the Chernobyl event effected Russia, and it wasn't a weapon. If Ukraine is nuked then they damage themselves as well as all surrounding nations, which would bring NATO into the fight. If they can't beat Ukraine they sure as hell don't stand a chance against NATO.
Basically, the nuke threat is a bluff. Stop worrying about it and stop spreading their propaganda. Spreading fear of nukes is spreading Russia's message. Please use your brain and stop fearing it. It's not worth considering.
It's time for Russia to concede territory and end the war for the sake of all Russians.
Maybe the Russians will be better off under Ukrainian control.
That seems highly probable but let's be real here: That's a pretty low bar.
You would need a shovel just to find the bar.
I could do the trick, really. Fucking Big Bird from Sesame Street could do a better job.
I bet Big Bird would actually be a pretty solid leader.
Really Fucking Big Bird sounds terrifying.
I mean there are Ukrainian people living there right now. According to the argumentation in the past this area basically belongs to Ukraine now. They could make a referendum about this topic 🤔
Three days to Kyiv, what could go wrong?
Some Tankie argued with me about that because he told me to find a quote from Putin where he literally said that. Like, does that matter? That was the general Russian sentiment.
I don't think Putin publicly said it to br fair. It's something that was said by Russian propagandists and there was a leaked FSB report claiming that Putin also believed it.
Clearly things are not going according to plan for Russia though, regardless of they thought it'd take three days or three months. Their actions in the initial hours and days of the war also seemed to indicate they were aiming for a quick decapitation.
I don't think he did either, but it's a silly request to make because it was very obvious that, even if the 'three days' thing wasn't literal, they expected the war to be over very quickly and they would roll into Kyiv with little resistance.
Very true. It's really frustrating having a discussion with those people because they never seem to argue in good faith. I honestly don't think they can possibly believe some of the unhinged stuff they say.
Apparently Lukashenko said the "Kyiv in three days" part. I can't find a good source to link, though.
Ukraine should immediately and publicly offer peace terms with Russia:
This would show that Ukraine is reasonable but still allowed to defend itself. But more importantly, it would shut up the boot-licking tankies who muddy the waters and falsely claim that bOtH SiDeS are invading each other...
You need war score of 100% to enforce those demands
Must be some weird AI bug, because in defensive wars you almost always get your allies to join.
Yeah bro, can't even click on this proposal without holding Moscow. This is a wishlist.
They will never ever return those children. And if they somehow did, a lot of them were so young that they won't recognize their real parents. The magnitude of that crime is absolutely staggering.
*1991 borders
Sorry, they've invaded so much, I lost track.
1991 borders
You right.
Realistically they could trade this for Donbas and POWs. Crimea would take something larger, like the city of Kursk.
I'm pretty sure Crimea wouldn't like that deal.
And so Ukraine starts a special operation on Russian territory to defeat the Nazi regime and save the Ukrainian majority population.
Oh shit, they've actually captured the area and are holding it? That's pretty significant! If they can keep this up, then maybe they can force Russia to concede? ...Though any russian deal to end the war obviously won't be honoured, which does make it a bit of a conundrum. Still, this is a good thing.
Ukraine is not dug in, but it definitely seems like Russia's front line around Kursk is collapsing, and Ukraine has the initiative here.
Russia's border defense turned out to be mostly conscripts who got the fuck out of the way and/or surrendered the minute the fighting got remotely serious. And behind them is a whole lot of nothing until they hit the secondary lines which are, one would assume, a little more solid and based on natural obstacles like rivers and cities.
The contract soldiers are better, but they're also on the frontline.
So basically the same quality defenses that rolled over when the Wagner guy started his march to Moscow...
That guy was such a moron. Once you start something like that, you'd best see it through or die trying (rather than die a short time later on other people's terms).
So what about going around the rear and attacking Donbass from the russian side? I have no further knowledge, just spitballing here
That’s the kind of military plan hitler would order after a bit too much meth, to get to Rostov Ukraine would need to go hundreds of miles behind enemy lines with no logistics
Hitler also used the largest invasion force in history (3.8 million troops, vs 3 million for the Nazi invasion of France or 2 million for the allied invasion France). And still failed so badly he lost the entire war.
Though it is hard to compare them because the contexts are so different. Russia isn't as motivated this time as USSR was in the 1940s.
There's no way they realistically hold or capture any of this. They just don't have the logistics. But it's an amazing opportunity to create a dilemma for Russia. They either 1) ignore it and let Ukrainian forces rampage around in Russian territory unopposed or 2) they redeploy forces from the front to defend Russian territory.
The Ukrainian forces should stay nimble either way, and retreat without too big a fight back to their own territory in the latter case, hopefully having caused enough of a diversion for a counteroffensive where they need it.
To add to that, on a map it all looks small, so you can imagine: go here, get there. But to actually "cross the front in the opposite direction into Donetsk region" they would need to cover about 300 km - quick, unprotected and without any logistical support, or slow but sure, but this is what they might plan anyway. They will probably try to widen the gap and dismantle the border defences
There’s an interesting possibility 3 …. Not that I have any idea about what is realistic in this war, but what if the goal is actual fighting? The active front is dig in and fatal to anything that moves: advancing is next to impossible. However western weapons were meant for speed, maneuverability. What if they draw Russia out to a fight on Western terms?
They could probably pull some gorilla attacks off behind their lines, but there's no way they have the logistics to do a full assault on the rear. The best option would probably be to harass Russian supply lines.
Flanking attacks snowball when you collapse the fortified lines and link up with your own forward deployed troops.
Who said that there weren't any wise people in the Russian army?
Last I checked it looked like they had breached some major lines of defence, which means they may be past the worst of minefields etc. If they have room to manoeuvre for real by the time the russians send more forces the russians are going to have a real bad time trying to respond to this.
I strongly believe that Russia is preparing a more serious response. They just were not prepared for this, so didn't have defenses in place. Better to retreat and cede some territory than wasting troops in a losing battle. Since their land is so large, they can still come back later and reconquer.
Also, Ukraine can't use that many troops to actually fortify the region, given that they are also under heavy pressure at the more southern fronts.
And, 130 square miles is tiny compared to all the territory that Russia got so far.
Well, I believe the biggest win about this is for morale. Russians get scared because the war is now in their country, and Ukrainians get a buffer zone.
Yeah, I assume this is a dual purpose morale booster and demoralizerm Ukraine shows that Russias defenses are a paper tiger because they relied on threats and it will force Russia to respond with troops, either by pulling from the front lines or reinforcements. Either way it moves the fighting to Russian land and that will demoralize support in Russia.
Plus they can disrupt more supply lines and war manufacturing locations by going around the border defenses. They don't even need to hold ground, just be a thorn in Russia's side.
Also, Putin may need to divert resources from Ukraine and halt advances there earlier than intended.
Of course, if Putin drops a tactical nuke inside of Russia's internationally-recognized boarders, will the world care? And if so, how much? Could backfire on Ukraine a bit in the short-term.
I believe any live use of a nuclear weapon would result in near universal sanctioning, including by Beijing
Yes, they will care about nuclear fallout blowing across Europe at a minimum.
Slava Ukraini!
I believe that's more than Russia has advanced in a year
Am area the size of Philly. Whew that's gonna worry Russia.
IIRC it's to smash the gas pipelines. If they want to actually hold this they're gonna have a hard time. Maybe they can turn it into a flanking move or something, otherwise it has the makings of a "high water mark" moment like Gettysburg.
It's to make Russia either destroy the facilities in order to dislodge the UAF and retake the area or show weakness and allow the capture to stand for a period.
Those gas pipelines run through Ukraine, don’t they? If they wanted to cut off the pipeline they didn’t need to cross the border to do that.
As long as they don't fight uphill!
ME BOYS!
Russia is having a hard time because everyone working for Putin is a con man grifter. Some are, in addition to being frauds, also dumb as fuck.
350 sq km, to compare to the previous headline I saw of 200 sq km.
on to moscow!
And they will dig in probably, forcing Russian troops to use their destroy and advance tactic on their own villages.
Surprise move by Ukraine! Watch Russia nuke their own territory to be able to use a nuke to look strong, dangerous and unpredictable and not get in trouble for it.
(This is a joke)
They've been telling people they'll nuke anyone that crosses their border that nothing happening now is a letdown. It's like discovering the gang of bikers all have rub on tattoos.
They've actually threatened to nuke themselves? o.O
Belka moment
This wouldnt have been related to the F-16s in action now would it?
I know they are wicked overpowered comepared to a lot of Russian aircraft, but do they have this sort of range?
You mean 6 miles?
Ok. I see why that is silly yes.
I don't know how far away from the border the fighters take off from. I also don't know how altitude plays into the whole combat and range thing. For all I know, they take off 300 miles away from the border, cruise at 30k feet, fly lower, drop some bombs, fly back up at 30k and head another 300 miles back.
I don't actually know if 600 miles is a long distance for an F-16 but it is a small plane.
I also don't know how big Ukraine is thinking about it.
Yep.
The range is both very important and not applicable to your question. Ukraine fighters will always reach the war zone, whatever range they have, because fighters with less capacity will take-off closer to it and thus be more at risk.
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Don't get cocky, everyone. Remember nuclear warfare has been flirted with.
I don't think there's much that can be done for Russia using nuclear missiles on their own territory and that would be why Ukraine's in an area of value, protecting them from that happening. They won't be controlling territory much larger while an Su-35 with a nuclear loadout is waiting for them to stray enough kilometres away from the critical infrastructure.
Consider it a siege attempt on resource, not a counter attack for territory.
Edit: Holy shit. I'm clearly referring to the tactical nukes. How did y'all forget that, gloss over the rest of the comment, and go straight to silo level atomic bombs decimating the region and spreading fallout across EU? Fucking hell, this place some times...
Edit Edit: See?
Putin mouthpiece says Kremlin wants to NUKE own country as rattled Vlad reels from blitz into Russia, claims Ukraine)
Escalating Russian Tactical Nuclear Drills Now Include Forces Involved in Ukraine War
Brains. Use them. What kind of nuke did people think an SU-35 could even carry?
Nuclear bombs would have fallout that blows across Europe.
Ukraine doesn't need to defend any territory it has taken, it just needs to be a constant thorn in Russia's side.
Also, some countries have stated that they would consider fallout blowing into their country as a trigger to invoke NATO Article 5.
It's a great way for Russia to instantly lose the war. How fast do you think the EU gets involved when they have radiation on their borders?
I believe, and my memory in this is a little hazy, that Poland already said they'd trigger article 5 if they got screwed with radiation so I suppose the answer to your question is either
Copied from my other reply to a similar message:
Their nukes probably aren't even operational. They weren't maintaining their other equipment, so odds are they aren't maintaining the nukes, which if they use they already lost, so are effectively worthless except as a threat.
Assuming their nukes work, they can't nuke Ukraine. The reason why nukes aren't used is because the damage is uncontrollable. The fallout would effect large portions of Russia too. Think about how much the Chernobyl event effected Russia, and it wasn't a weapon. If Ukraine is nuked then they damage themselves as well as all surrounding nations, which would bring NATO into the fight. If they can't beat Ukraine they sure as hell don't stand a chance against NATO.
Basically, the nuke threat is a bluff. Stop worrying about it and stop spreading their propaganda. Spreading fear of nukes is spreading Russia's message. Please use your brain and stop fearing it. It's not worth considering.