What do you think would happen if Putin was assassinated right now?

BarqsHasBite@lemmy.world to Ask Lemmy@lemmy.world – 117 points –

Pick whatever non-NATO source.

71

He will be putin a coffin

During his next public speech, you'd notice that his eyebrows are slightly bushier, his voice is slightly deeper, and he's suddenly an inch taller.

"Doppelgangers! Listen!

There is a good news and a bad news for you this morning.

The good news is: Our Great Leader has survived the dangerous attack last night.

The other news is: He has lost his right arm. "

Took me a few moments to get this

I tried searching but to no avail, is it a quote?

If he loses his right arm, and Doppelgangers have to look exactly like him, they also have to lose their right arms

If Putin loses an arm, all of his doppelgängers will need to lose an arm too. Otherwise they’ll be immediately identified as doppelgängers.

It’s a pretty well known thing that Putin frequently uses lookalikes for public appearances. It’s apparently an old habit from when he was a KGB agent. So if someone snipes him from a rooftop, it’s probably not even him; He can claim to have miraculously survived the shooting, then carry on as if nothing happened.

No matter who actually did it. Russia would blame Ukraine/NATO/USA/The West in general, together and separately in rotation.

After that I have no real idea, who would succeed. There would be a massive power struggle both in the government and military.

There is a strong possibility that several of the autonomous regions within the Russian federation would try to break away. There is about a 20% chance of a civil war because of this.

And about a 1% chance of nukes being used.

Well Ukraine is on the table as a non-NATO source and obvious contender given the war.

Ukraine would do it with the help of several other Western nations. A definite team effort!

Currently, there is no other really powerful figure next to him.

Therefore a giant power vacuum emerges.

The war would stop, probably very soon. But then the situation gets chaotic and unpredictable.

I'd wager the war goes from internal, to internal civil war, if Putin dies, as various power blocks try either secure their own positions/power, or reach for more.

assuming they didnt try to blame the west, which then things get far more worse for NATO states, and possibly hot

There’s got to be some kind of Vice Putin isn’t there? A guy who can step in and rule with an iron fist and keep things running? Or is this just some kind of jackal feeding frenzy sort of situation when he dies?

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Yeah I'd imagine the troops in Ukraine would be pulled back into Russia largely to secure someone's position in their upper ranks, with only enough to maintain defensive positions in Ukraine. If Ukraine broke through during this period it'd probably be over while Russia is distracted with internal issues.

largely to secure someone's position in their upper ranks

Yes, or simply because noone else really wants this war (=wants the country to pay the price of this war).

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Ukraine would get blamed.

Ukraine would claim they did it, and everyone would clap

how DARE they!

We (Russia) tried to assassinate Ukraine's leader multiple times but were unsuccessful. It isn't fair that Ukraine was successful in their attempt on our leader!

There would be a power vacuum, probably a few murders/suicides/defenstrations, and the elections scheduled for a few months from now will probably be postponed during the struggle for leadership of the country. My guess is the powers that eventually take over will agree to pull out of Ukraine, conduct a few show trials, and do whatever else they think they have to in order for the west to lift the sanctions and unlock the oligarch's accounts.

It would please me greatly to know that Ukraine will outlive Putin.

Being a member of the KGB, he'd probably be replaced quick with someone who is just like him.

Didn't know they already build the Cloning Vat.

Plastic surgery on a double for public appearances. Deepfakes for videos.

If they had instead focused on Kirov production the Ukraine war would have gone very differently.

It will end in 7 hours and everyone will have PTSD flashback for the rest of their lives when they heard the sound "pieeeew"

Was Dolly done in a vat? You can clone humans no problem. It’s just the age difference that’s the problem. And you don’t get to transfer the mind but we’ll have that figure out soon too.

Putin might never be allowed to die... (even if he already has).

That'd probably be true for a while, but after that they'd need to start an "election" where some military commander or other higher up will take his chair.

Fascists do not care about truth or facts, only authority, so whichever they deem more useful to them at the time they will make use of.

This isn't about truth or facts. If something major happens in Russia or related to it and the president doesn't show up to talk about it, that would raise eyebrows. Now imagine that happening over and over again. Putin dying would be the perfect opportunity for the US to start swaying Russia into a civil war. They definitely don't want the president's chair to be empty and contested for.

The most useful thing to them will always be to shove anyone atop that chair before the US notices.

He likely has a dead man's switch to release the trump hooker piss tapes

destabilization until the Kremlin finds a new president in that time probably multiple nations would be indipendent and Ukraine would pretty much launch their offensive and the union state collapses and tv stations all across Russia hijacked

There would be another president & the west wouldn't be happy with that one either

By most accounts, the next man up will be worse, and that's really saying something.

A hardliner will take power (Putin is not the most antiwest russian politician) and then...from the total erasing of Ukraine to third world war, anything would be posible, but neither civil war nor colapse of Rusia. That is the OTAN countries wet dream.

Putin is the most antiwest Russian politician. And the least antiwest Russian politician. Also the tallest one, as well as the shortest.

This is very likely. If anything, the existing system will be perpetuated because there's no replacement atm. It's been too long in the making and it will take a lot of work to undo. Also, he may be long dead and it won't change anything in the near future.

This said there's always a chance for a change, but not right now.

What about a change in the West? In order to avoid another Afganistán, Irak, Sirya, Libya and so on...

I'm not sure why you mean by this. A change in Russia from the West?

No, the question assumes that Putin is s problem (a bad guy) and almost ask his dead.

Everything is more complex, and if Putin is a bad guy...what about wéstern politicians and their crimes?

I do not like that position: the "West" is right, the rest of the world is not. That is one of the untold premises of the question.

Edit: i am not an english speaker, perhaps my writing is not clear enough.

Definitely but that's unrelated to Putin and his direct actions. The OP's question also doesn't mention anything about West right Putin wrong, they are just asking what's going to happen if Putin is no more.

Why is that question possible?

"that's unrelated to Putin and his direct actions", if not related, why? Why asking about assassinated political leader?

I meant to say whatever the West leaders are doing does not pertain to the question. The question is not about them.

Those kind of questions can not be made without context, it is not a game of words without consequences. If it is a game, just to waste time posting in this or any social network, let's stop here.

It is about a real person, who is a leader, whose murder would spark grave consequences. And that leader actions, like taking the decision of going to war or not, are related to decisions made by other leaders. Right now there is a campaign demonizing that leader, and that campaign normalizes ideas mirrored by that kind of questions. There lots of memes, jokes and things like that asking for Putin's dead.

If i asked, what would happen if Donald Trump were assassinated? Or Biden, or Xi Jing Pin, Erdogan, etc? At this moment when all media are strugling to influence public opinion? It won't be a futile harmless game.

It pertains to the whole picture. IMHO.

The question is purely speculative. Try swapping Putin for any western leader and then answer the actual question if it helps.

I can speculate easily what will happen if Biden is assassinated because the probability of anything is not zero. The VP will take his place and so on.

So, your position as i understand it: it is just words.

My position: words related to real world are not just words, they have meaning, purpose, intention and consequences.

Edit: if USA president is assassinated VP takes the place, is that all what would happen? ASSASSINATED, not by sickness or accident🤔.

Yes, assassinated, because things happen and no, I do not intend to assassinate anyone just because I use this word. And because things happen, there are contingency plans written for such scenarios, in every country. Do you think that national security services shy away from this because God forbid they talk about it?

Here's what happens when the president is no more: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_line_of_succession

I could speculate further that there's always a possibility of unplanned action or power imbalance, or infighting etc etc that may further complicate things, but the bottom line is things of all kinds happen and they will continue to happen regardless of whether I talk about them or not.

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