40% of US electricity is now emissions-free

boem@lemmy.world to Technology@lemmy.world – 889 points –
40% of US electricity is now emissions-free
arstechnica.com
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It is cheaper to operate and that has been it's selling point for the last years.

In case you're ever wondering, this is an example of your tax dollars at work. Thirty years ago solar and wind generation had to be heavily subsidized with government grants to make them viable in the energy market. Now the technology of both has advanced to the point that it's undercutting all of the other forms of electricity generation, without subsidization.

Government subsidies work. They're effective for getting new technologies off the ground.

Good thing we still subsidize petroleum

Good for the oil companies and legislators they own, anyway

They are great. As long as they don’t end up like corn.

Or oil and coal, propping up bad energy sources while the clean ones have to often fend for themselves and compete against the subsidies.

So now the coal and oil power plants require government subsidies.

Everything I find shows them as still being subsidized and receiving the lions share of energy subsidies, which is fine in my book.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_subsidies_in_the_United_States#:~:text=In%20the%20United%20States%2C%20the,total%20of%20US%20$34%20billion.

Everything I find shows them as still being subsidized and receiving the lions share of energy subsidies

According to Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, the bulk of our state and federal subsidies are tilted towards fossil fuels.

As we’ll hear today, the United States subsidizes the fossil fuel industry with taxpayer dollars. It’s not just the US: according to the International Energy Agency, fossil fuel handouts hit a global high of $1 trillion in 2022 – the same year Big Oil pulled in a record $4 trillion of income.

In the United States, by some estimates taxpayers pay about $20 billion dollars every year to the fossil fuel industry. What do we get for that? Economists generally agree: not much. To quote conservative economist Gib Metcalf: these subsidies offer “little if any benefit in the form of oil patch jobs, lower prices at the pump, or increased energy security for the country.” The cash subsidy is both big and wrong.

It should be noted that your link only explores federal subsidies, while Whitehouse notes the bulk of subsidization that happen at the state and local level. Texas, for instance, invests enormously in public works that benefit fossil fuel producers while offering the administrative offices generous grants and tax forbearances to operate within the state.

Because energy consumption underpins the bulk of our commercial activities, there is a real net-benefit to keeping raw fuel and electricity prices artificially low. Market rate energy would constrict capital construction and real estate development, reduce employment rates, and increase inflation - generally speaking, it would cut into long term economic growth. The OPEC embargo of the 70s demonstrated as much.

At the same time, fossil fuel consumption yields a host of side-effects - degradation of air and water quality, rising global temperatures leading to more sever weather and sea levels which increase the rate of coastal erosion, wholesale destruction of agricultural land and waterways where spills occur, etc.

So subsidies aren't bad on their face, but fossil fuel subsidies - particularly at the scale of current energy consumption - carry far too many negative externalities to be considered good long term policy.

Unfortunately, the political benefits of fossil fuel subsidy continue to outweigh the social consequences, leading to a political class that is financially invested in continuing subsidies that have long since transformed into a net negative for domestic growth.

The US has been subsidizing energy infrastructure transitions for over a hundred years. When coal power, nuclear power, hydro etc were new initiatives they all had a big helping hand from tax dollars.

Yes they are still heavily subsidized, but according to Lazard's Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis utility-scale solar and wind are lower cost ($/MWh) than most other forms of electricity generation, even when unsubsidized. That has been true since at least the 2016 version of the report (check out the chart on page 2). In the 2023 version this is still true.

Wind power in particular is just ridiculously cheap to install and operate, which is why there have been so many new installations over the past decade. Spending money on any other new power generators just looks financially irresponsible at this point. I think this is part of why new nuclear projects keep dying - they get more expensive while wind and solar get cheaper.

Unfortunately, in comparison rooftop residential solar looks like a bad investment.

So yes, wind and solar are still subsidized because the government wants to encourage their use, but they don't have to be subsidized to be competitive in the energy market.

It is now. But only after we invested in it.

This is a great example of investing in tech even when it’s not practical in the present day. It can pay off later down the line.

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A good chunk of that is nuclear which is not cheaper to operate.

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It's worth pointing out that the renewables break down as such (% of all electricity):

  • Solar: 6%
  • Hydro: 6%
  • Wind: 10%
  • Nuclear: 18%

Nuclear energy is providing more than any other individual source, making up 45% of all renewable electricity.

Next time you hear someone "concerned about global warming" also fearmonger about nuclear energy, it's worth considering where their allegiances lie. Most people are misguided, but when it comes to politicians, it says a lot about how much they actually care about sustainability.

There have been studies (this one, for example) that suggest the total radioactivity-related health impacts from coal power exceed that of nuclear power by an order of magnitude. That's not all pollution-related deaths for coal -- just those associated with radon exposure inside of mines, and radioactive materials embedded in coal going out into the environment. For all the fear-mongering about nuclear, it's hard to find a less dangerous source of base load generation using present-day technologies. Maybe once grid-scale batteries are available at scale, they could replace nuke plants, but that's a solution ten years too late for an environmental problem we have to fix right now.

radioactive materials embedded in coal going out into the environment

They should put it beyond the environment.

What is renewable about nuclear? It's not a fossil fuel, but uranium has to be mined and is a finite resource just like oil.

i wonder where the world we be today if we didnt stop funding nuclear, if gen 4 designs actually had proper money pushing them forward.

Nuclear has been at that supply level since the 1970s. Other parts of the world have much higher renewable mixes in their energy inputs. For example, Germany:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-likely-pass-50-mark-renewable-power-this-year-minister-2023-09-18/

Nuclear is not necessary to meet climate change targets. In fact, it's so damned expensive to deploy and maintain, it will harm meeting those targets.

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2023/03/PE23_090_43312.html

And because they shut down their nuclear plants, they had to start burning coal again, which is about as bad an energy source you can get when it comes to emissions and pollution. Their coal use % went up from 2021 to 2022. They may have a higher renewable mix, but they've also increased their emissions. Not to mention, they also significantly reduced their energy imports from France -- the majority of which is generated by nuclear energy. They are replacing clean energy with coal.

France is actually a significant counterpoint as well. They've got 65%+ nuclear energy, and renewables just add to the percent of clean energy sources. Considering they're doing much better than Germany in terms of not using fossil fuels, I believe they are an example to follow over Germany -- which means nuclear is critical to meet our climate goals.

since we're talking about france, it's important to mention that frances nuclear infrastructure is a mess right now, pretty much all of it is EOL and a handful have found serious structural issues. Maintenance is important kids, remember to perform it, otherwise your PWR main loop might explode. and everyone will laugh at you.

Also the EPR reactor being built thats like n times over budget and x years behind commission, 90% of it is fabrication skill issues though. The EPR is also just immensely complex compared to better designs.

infrastructure is a universal issue though, you just HAVE to maintain things unless you want them to disintegrate. And you need to have a plan in place to keep things going into the future, when things inevitably reach EOL.

And because they shut down their nuclear plants, they had to start burning coal again...

Unrelated and a whataboutism.

It was completely relevant to the discussion. That's not a whataboutism.

Don't forget geothermal. California has a little of that

Geothermal - 0.4%

Geothermal is not quite to the point where we can represent it with a whole number percentage value, but it's getting there! If we're going to include sub-1% generators, burning wood has geothermal beat out at 0.8%. Geothermal is cool, though!

The only thing that's keeping carbon-free power from growing faster is natural gas, which is the fastest-growing source of generation at the moment, going from 40 percent of the year-to-date total in 2022 to 43.3 percent this year. (It's actually slightly below that level in the October data.) The explosive growth of natural gas in the US has been a big environmental win, since it creates the least particulate pollution of all the fossil fuels, as well as the lowest carbon emissions per unit of electricity. But its use is going to need to start dropping soon if the US is to meet its climate goals, so it will be critical to see whether its growth flat lines over the next few years.

Uh... So, listen. I work in the Nat Gas sector. And while I'm happy to confirm that its far cleaner, easier/safer to transport, and more efficient than coal and liquid oil, I'm going to have to pump the breaks on the enthusiasm. We are definitely not "emissions-free". One of the larger investments we've made, in the last few years, has been in detecting gas leaks along our existing lines and plugging them. And we definitely still flare off excess and lose reserves during transit as circumstances dictate.

Way back in the 1970s a small upstart energy company known as Exxon had one of its engineering departments estimate the ecological impact of drilling into the East Natuna gas field off the coast of Indonesia. This was primarily a natural gas reserve, accessible without the modern fracking and cracking techniques used throughout the Permian and Delphi Basins.

Senior scientist of Exxon, James Black, authored a report estimating the impact of drilling and burning off the fuel in the East Natuna reserve, and concluded it would result in a significant increase in global temperatures. This lead Exxon to commission further studies, in the late 70s and early 80s, to estimate the full impact of their drilling and refining practices. The end result was a model of climate change that has mapped neatly to current climate trends

I say this because while natural gas is relatively cleaner, it is by no means clean. And with the increasing rate of energy consumption occurring globally, our reliance on natural gas is decidedly not contributing to an emissions free future.

I don't think anyone is under the illusion that natural gas is emissions-free.

6% Solar + 6% Hydro + 10% Wind + 18% Nuclear = 40% "emissions-free"

They certainly exist. There was a Dutch guy in another post bragging about his micro-nation being 100% emissions free because he kept seeing his government bragging about being "100% green energy," while the supermajority of their electricity was generated with natural gas (being the only significant fossil fuels they had and it being relatively easy to source from neighbors)

The point isn't there was one guy who fell for it, the point is there will be people mistaking natural gas for actual green energy instead of just being less harmful, or being unaware of what's actually producing their electricity simply because there is a deliberate effort to mislead people about it by, among other things, conflating terminology like "green" and "emission free."

The article doesn't do a good job of explaining the 40%, you have to infer it. But when you do, it isn't natural gas, but solar + wind + hydro + nuclear.

This is actually fantastic news. 40% renewable, 40% natural gas, and 20% coal is a huge step in the right direction.

The article doesn't do a good job of explaining the 40%

I thought the chart was pretty clear. Although I guess they could’ve color coded it.

I think color coding it would've helped a bit yeah. Especially if they used the same color for wind and hydro and solar and nuclear. Otherwise you read 40% in the headline and the first thing which draws your attention is 44% natural gas

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That's a very cool article, I didn't know the US was actually making the change so quickly.

Weirdest part of the article is the included pie chart from the US Energy Information Agency showing the usage of different types of energy, but the entire pie is orange, like every slice of different energy is orange.

They need one art guy, just one.

I didn't mind the pie chart, the slices are labeled clearly, no need to use coloring like you have to read a legend.

This is economics now, not politics. US can go full crazy Trump, but the grid will just keep getting greener as greener is cheapest. He can rant and rave about global warming being a conspiracy or anything else, but it's unstoppable now.

No, the grid won't get greener if Trump is elected because he WILL go full dictator. And he will revert everything that is being done currently.

He'll struggle to make states to buy more expensive energy. If he managed, he'd put the state at a global disadvantage. Even then, he'd have to outlaw solar to stop people installing it at home.

That's what tanking the EPA is for. Without any oversight of externalities, dirty energy becomes cheaper.

Environmental Protection Agency?

Sorry, I don't follow.

Here's the summary for the wikipedia article you mentioned in your comment:

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is an independent agency of the United States government tasked with environmental protection matters. President Richard Nixon proposed the establishment of EPA on July 9, 1970; it began operation on December 2, 1970, after Nixon signed an executive order. The order establishing the EPA was ratified by committee hearings in the House and Senate. The agency is led by its administrator, who is appointed by the president and approved by the Senate. The current administrator is Michael S. Regan. The EPA is not a Cabinet department, but the administrator is normally given cabinet rank. The EPA has its headquarters in Washington, D.C., regional offices for each of the agency's ten regions, and 27 laboratories.The agency conducts environmental assessment, research, and education. It has the responsibility of maintaining and enforcing national standards under a variety of environmental laws, in consultation with state, tribal, and local governments. EPA enforcement powers include fines, sanctions, and other measures. It delegates some permitting, monitoring, and enforcement responsibility to U.S. states and the federally recognized tribes. The agency also works with industries and all levels of government in a wide variety of voluntary pollution prevention programs and energy conservation efforts. The agency's budgeted employee level in 2023 is 16,204.1 full-time equivalent (FTE). More than half of EPA's employees are engineers, scientists, and environmental protection specialists; other employees include legal, public affairs, financial, and information technologists.

^article^ ^|^ ^about^

The infuriating thing to me is, renewable energy is often extremely independent. It means no reliance on foreign oil. That SHOULD be the most American thing, especially for those in the GOP who claim to be anti-government.

Goes to remind you their main product is hypocrisy.

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No. No it's not. EOTW in a decade tops. If it ain't hell incarnate then it'll be a virus, bio-, tech-, software, etc., maybe that comet, whatever. Unless you FOSS everything NOW...Goodbye...forever.

Can I get that in English?

They can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think what they're saying is there are numerous reasons that the world can and will be over in the next decade. The only solution to this, as they see it, is to make everything free and open source. If we don't, we'll all be doomed.

No. I only speak in psychedelic and psychic drugs. Inhale some cognitive dimensioner perception accelerator already. Your last chance before...

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Wait really, no joke??

Not in my state, we're like 10-15% emission free wind and solar), and like 60-70% from coal.

Believe it or not, your state was included in the national average

What I think is interesting is just how variable it is. This Wikipedia article breaks it down by state. There's no obvious political explanation here, and even very similar states have very different energy production.

For example, here's the top 10 (with 2016/2020 presidential party vote):

  1. Vermont (D) - 99.7%
  2. South Dakota (R) - 82.7%
  3. Washington (D) - 81.9%
  4. New Hampshire (D) - 71.6%
  5. Idaho (R) - 70.2%
  6. Maine (D) - 66.1%
  7. Oregon (D) - 65%
  8. Illinois (D) - 64.5%
  9. South Carolina (R) - 60.8%
  10. Kansas (R) - 60.8%

And the bottom 10 (ignoring DC):

41 - Massachusetts (D) - 17.8%
42 - Ohio (R) - 17.4%
43 - Florida (R) - 17.4%
44 - Missouri (R) - 16.6%
45 - Utah (R) - 12.4%
46 - Indiana (R) - 9.8%
47 - Kentucky (R) - 7.6%
48 - Rhode Island (D) - 7.2%
49 - West Virginia (R) - 5.1%
50 - Delaware (D) - 3.2%

So 6/10 of the top 10 are states that voted Democrat, and 7/10 of the bottom 10 are states that voted Republican. That trend doesn't really tell the story though (3 of the next 5 voted Republican), which is really interesting because it's such a political talking point at the national level (e.g. Dems are in favor of green energy, Reps are in favor of fossil fuels).

Even some very similar, adjacent states have very different generation numbers:

  • Alabama (43%) vs Mississippi (20%)
  • Idaho (70%) vs Utah (12%)
  • Tennessee (59%) vs Kentucky (8%)

So there's a lot of progress that can be made at the low end by pointing at their neighbors.

The states themselves are different. The state I live in (washington) is about 70% hydroelectric for example, and that just wouldn't work in a lot of other places

Sure, WA is an outlier because of its geography (more consistent rivers), but other states that are very similar to each other have huge differences. So it's not something that's easily explained by geography or local politics.

I see two possibilities here:

  • US stagnates at some percent because the bottom states refuse to change
  • bottom states follow their neighbors' lead and renewable adoption accelerates

ultimately, it's going to be economic, if for example, nuclear becomes the cheapest form of energy, it's going to become really popular, spread rapidly, develop quickly, become cheaper, safer, and eventually any state with some amount of sense in it is going to switch over, regardless of political status.

It just doesn't make sense to support coal when energy is cheaper and safer coming from another source.

The only other way it would go is federal regulation or subsidies.

In my area, the lack of nuclear has been largely due to FUD. I'm in Utah, and every time nuclear has been suggested, the public has shot it down, despite having the perfect geography for it. The plant could be placed on the west side of the mountains where few people live, so even if there's a disaster, it's not going to impact the populated valley, and there's a ton of space in the desert to bury the waste. Also, coal ash is more radioactive than nuclear waste, yet we have coal plants here.

yeah, for some reason the public is just incredibly apprehensive about anything that would be beneficial if it might even moderately inconvenience them. I will never not be amused by the time that germany shut down a brand new nuclear plant before it even went online. I've made a lot of bad decisions in my life, but burning millions, potentially even billions of dollars is not one of them. Not yet at least.

Wow, that's ridiculous, especially given the recent energy issues due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

that reactor being shut down was back during the nuclear energy ban germany had. This was well before the current global climate, doesn't make it a sound financial choice though.

Here's the summary for the wikipedia article you mentioned in your comment:

This is a list of U.S. states by total electricity generation, percent of generation that is renewable, total renewable generation, percent of total domestic renewable generation, and carbon intensity in 2021.

^article^ ^|^ ^about^

What I think is interesting is just how variable it is.

The states themselves are very different from each other.

It's better than nothing. Hopefully we can speed this up in next couple of years.

That’s actually better than I thought.

In my city they had everyone switch to renewable energy, they sent Mail out stating that your energy source will automatically change unless you opt out.

LOL how are they going to change the energy source that powers an individual house if they "opt out" ??

Did they run separate power lines to every house that is on a switch between the power sources? It's not like a network packet that you can route to a destination, it's going to go down the lines the same way unless the circuit is broken.

My state separates power “distribution” as the responsibility of the utility, from “generation” as an attempt at a competitive market. I choose my source f power by choosing what generation company I pay. Clearly, electrons are electrons, but for the power I use I pay a 50% renewables company to generate

it's "ghost" economics, if for example i live in a house that choose to pay for coal power over hydro power, my money goes to the coal power plant (or at least not to the hydro plant) if i choose to pay for hydro, that money goes to the hydro plant instead (most likely not the coal plant)

if you actually dig into power co-ops and whatever other shenanigans you find, in the US at least, you will find there are multiple layers between "the utility" and who generates the power. For example, here where i live, we have a local power utility, who buys power from a power co-op, who buys power from power plants, and possibly other power co-ops? It's really disorganized, basically the TL;DR is that it wouldnt matter even if there were separate distribution lines. It's completely irrelevant based on the complexity of the actual market anyway lol.

If 90% of households have clean energy selected, and 10% prefer to pollute, the city will buy the relevant amount of clean energy.

My city gave no option. It only buys clean energy

Suppose Provider A is 100% renewable and Provider B is 100% fossil. Both providers generate power and feed the same grid (which is managed separately from the various energy providers). The same grid powers all homes. Householders get to choose whether to buy from Provider A or Provider B. If you support renewables then you buy from Provider A; their share goes up and B's share goes down. And vice versa for B. In addition the government juggles A,B as well as C,D,E,etc to provide the overall service to the country.

Why do they need to ask? I ask as in the UK we all get our power from "the grid", and don't have much say over what the energy mix is there.

Because for some reason in my city “delivery” cost of the renewable energy costs 12% more than non-renewable.

That sounds like a problem worth solving, and I can't think of a reason it would be the case without using the words "kickbacks" and "corruption"

it's possible that it's corruption, but it's also possible that's just being skimmed and stuffed into production of more renewable energy. That would make sense, given that we need to build more renewable, and already have existing fossil fuel infrastructure.

From what i've dug into, the latter seems the most likely, especially given how much of a mess the power "market" is.

This makes electric cars less polluting with every passing day as this percentage increases.

Car manufacturing is, itself, a messy process. And we'd all be better off (for a whole host of reasons) if we could move to a public transit system and away from the messy, overly-complex, extraordinarily expensive highways-and-byways personal vehicle system.

Electrified rail and Multi-family homes would dramatically reduce both energy consumption AND housing costs, if we were willing to invest in it at rates comparable to what we spend subsidizing new fossil fuel wells, road expansion/maintenance, and policing of the homeless.

Ride sharing and self driving are a natural combo . A ride sharing system for self driving electric cars & light trucks would be a game changer for 'last mile' and intra suburban transport ,

And ride sharing would reduce the manufacturing cost of providing a fleet of these vehicles for a city since fewer vehicles would be needed for the same number of people.

Here are several use cases where it would be ideal.

1: Transport to your residence or place of work from a mass transit station in inclement weather , or for people with heavy things to carry or the disabled who find travel to the mass transit station impractical or impossible.

The vehicle would be stationed in a parking lot/recharging station at the mass transit station and be available for rent via an app , it would then return to the parking lot autonomously and connect to the recharger to be ready for the next person. or conversely it could be summoned via the app and drive autonomously to the customer to be used .

2: An electric light truck variant could be used for moving or furniture delivery.

3: Disabled individuals could have access to accessible electric vehicles on an 'on demand' basis making trips to the stores or friends far easier for them. And stores would not need dozens of disabled parking spots or even a parking lot at all , they would only need one or two accessible general use loading and unloading areas near the entrance. and the acres and acres of land that was once a parking lot could be repurposed as a park or community space of some kind , or perhaps rezoned to provide extra housing for an over populated area.

Great except the military pollutes more than 140 countries and there are several wars ongoing. If you really want the climate to stop changing we need to reel in the international shipping industry, the fashion industry, and also the global war machine.

You also have to admit that the US covers for most of the worlds military. Most of nato and many Asian allies have very low defense spending, because the US will cover them. Most of the time when there is a global crisis or localized crisis the US is involved in one way or another.

They should pay us for this service.

"Hey France, are you subscribed to the American security apparatus?"

I was shooting heroin and reading "The Fountainhead" in the pilothouse of my privately owned aircraft carrier when a call came in. I put a quarter in the radio to activate it. It was France. “Hey France, are you subscribed to the American security apparatus?”

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we need to reel in the international shipping industry, the fashion industry, and also the global war machine

Believe you mean "modernize" and not "reel in," because ending international shipping would be catastrophic worldwide.

If we're being pedantic, the post said "reel in" international shipping, not "ending".

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Finally some good news.

There's a lot if you look for it, recent developments in tidal are incredibly positive and we're absolutely going to see a rapid uptake in marine electrification as existing technology progresses through the market. Most people never really think about the resources used and pollution caused by small boats but one of the big destructive forces at play is the infrastructure requirements - small boats need big boats to supply their fuel stations.

Transitioning away from this system and instead using costal tidal generators to charge electric ferries and barges could be a total game changer in many areas, especially many of the highly trafficked and polluted tidal basins like in north Brazil, Nigeria, or island clusters like in the Philippines. Also the intercoastal waterways around the US and other leisure spots.

We're making great progress in many areas and I really think it's important to acknowledge this and cheer it on least we get so caught in a false sense of doom that we just give up.

Its not good news at all, electricity prices have gone up a lot since this net-zero insanity took over. Morons are clapping their hands like trained seals at their bank accounts being drained by corporations and politicians.

No they haven't. Mine has been the same for a few decades and it's fine.

Yes they have, rates used to be 0.12/kwh all day long, recently they rolled out a peak pricing scam and it's 0.22/kwh from 2-7pm, that is nearly double.

Wanting to breath clean air on a habitable planet isn't insanity.

The air is plenty clean as it is, has been for decades too... as long as you don't live in California, where the smug is so thick it's asphyxiating.

This is due to corporate greed. Solar and wind are the cheapest sources of energy in the history of the world.

That's very surprising, in a good way.

I'd be really curious to see the dollar per kilowatt hour on each one of these.

This is the best summary I could come up with:


But some of the trends now seem locked in for the year: wind and solar are likely to be in a dead heat with coal, and all carbon-emissions-free sources combined will account for roughly 40 percent of US electricity production.

Weather can also play a role, as unusually high demand for heating in the winter months could potentially require that older fossil fuel plants be brought online.

This is in keeping with a general trend of flat-to-declining electricity use as greater efficiency is offsetting factors like population growth and expanding electrification.

Its output has been boosted by a new, 1.1 Gigawatt reactor that come online this year (a second at the same site, Vogtle in Georgia, is set to start commercial production at any moment).

But that's likely to be the end of new nuclear capacity for this decade; the challenge will be keeping existing plants open despite their age and high costs.

The explosive growth of natural gas in the US has been a big environmental win, since it creates the least particulate pollution of all the fossil fuels, as well as the lowest carbon emissions per unit of electricity.


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