Will there really be a big influx of users on the 30th?

I'll be directing all of my users in Sync to lemmy.world tomorrow.

Nobody knows the future, but speaking as an instance admin, the ideal scenario would be a continued steady growth and not a huge sudden influx 😅

I think the influx will be on the 1st. People are gonna try to fire up reddit on their fav app, it won't work, and a good number of them will do something else.

A portion of those will look for alternatives. Most of those people will probably end up here. I don't think it's going to be a gigantic number or anything, due to how many "gates" there are to go through, but I'm expecting the biggest single-day increase so far.

Not gonna be a sudden exodus.

More that Reddit's entered a slow death spiral. Redditors will start seeing an upsurge in toxicity, since mods will have left, been replaced with stooges, had their tools taken away, and most of the good mods will have abandoned ship.

Some may come here. Some may move on to Discord or other social media. Some will stick it out on Reddit, but notice that bots and trolls are taking over, whatever moderators are left can't or won't keep up, and the admins are seemingly asleep at the switch.

In a few months, discourse there will have assumed Youtube quality, with bots shouting down human discourse, and trolls scaring anyone remotely normal away. They'll limp along like that for years.

Like Twitter.

I dunno, but the fact that I'm browsing a post with 118 comments using a skin that looks a lot like Apollo tells that things are going in a good direction.

I think many are simply not doing anything until they have to. Once their app quits working, they'll make a change at that time. Of course not everyone uses Mobile. Personally I don't use mobile much for internet access, mainly desktop browser. In that case I could keep using Reddit same as before, but I don't want to.

So the question is what portion of Reddit users are on mobile, how many will relent to the Reddit app, how many will quit using Reddit altogether, how many will look for an alternative, and finally how many will land on Lemmy or Kbin. Could be a lot, could be not many. We'll find out pretty soon here.

For those that do come this way they'll have a transition phase. There's a lot that's different here and takes some getting used to. Also the lack of certain features may result in some angst. There's bugs too. They fixed some stuff with 0.18.0, but searching for and subscribing to communities is giving me fits now.

It depends. From what I understood, moderation on Reddit will become really hard after this. So the site will go down in user experience on content, worse than it is now. That’s outside of the 3rd party apps like Apollo no longer working but will have a negative impact. It sounded like some mods would just walk away than deal with not having robot spam bots to help, which it is volunteer. That could spur on further churn, again, because quality suffers.

I removed my Reddit apps and don’t plan to go back. Having said that, the tech here is still in its infancy. I see bugs daily, the native app version of this experience is not super adoptable by a mass market yet, but it can all improve with time and more bodies interested here.

Long term, this broad concept of decentralization seems to be populous. I think people don’t understand it yet, when they show up it’s rough, and there’s alternatives. But that will all continue to change in the coming months.

I think it really depends on how real the 1% rule of the internet is.

TBH I believe that 90% of mobile users uses the official app. Maybe they don’t know about 3PA, or simply just don’t bother. 3PA might be “for power users/advanced users” to them. All they want from Reddit is just the laugh (and porn probably) when doom scrolling. Not to mention because there is an official app, it’ll be the first result when searching “Reddit” on the app/play store. Most of the time people will just go for the first/official one. This whole API/protest thing will just be another Reddit drama for them and they just don’t care.

However, I believe that this whole thing affects those 1% users the most. For mobile users (of the 1%), I believe most of them are using 3PA. As the official is just too bad. For everyone else (of the 1%), if they care (even just a little bit) about Reddit, they will be greatly disappointed with how Reddit handles the whole situation. They will either have left already, or will be leaving soon. Which then the question will be, to where?

Obviously, users tends to go to wherever places that has the most interesting content to them. If enough 1% users left Reddit, migrated to Kbin/Lemmy, and continued to create content over here, I think those 99% users will eventually migrate as well - especially:

1. The content are created by the same 1% users, so the content will be similar to what they consumed back when they were on Reddit.

2. Reddit is full of repost bots, which hopefully should be more obvious when no new contents are being created anymore.

There’s also another possible but quite pessimistic possibility:
Some of those 99% users became the new 1% users, and began creating content with the redesigned UI/official app.
*Puts on tinfoil hat* Which is what Reddit wants - to kick out the “old”, power/advanced users (users who can and will protest/rebel, in essence), making Reddit into another generic social media platform. With everything under the complete control of Reddit, not its users.

The average user would not know about lemmy without a reddit post linking and explaining. It's what got me here.

I already switched over. But I guess majority of 3rd party app users are still waiting for the last moment.

It all comes down to mobile UI. Most of most peoples web usage is on mobile phones, occasionally a tablet, rarely sitting at a desk with a laptop or desktop computer.

The reason 3rd Party apps is such a sticking point for Reddit users is because the “factory” options are shite. Both the new and old web interfaces are garbage compared to the factory app, which is also garbage compared with any third party app.

The Steve Jobs Sweet Solution of WebApps was flawed. Twitteriffic and other pioneering mobile Smartphone apps proved that. Proprietary Apps with no alternative destroy intrinsic value of a platform to users. Facebook.app and YouTube.app prove that.

It won’t be instant, but quite a few 3PA users will find it incredibly difficult (maybe even impossible) to make the switch to the official app; it’s just that bad. Hell, I can’t imagine using Reddit without the crutch Apollo provided.

I expect the biggest wave has already passed. People who cared about Reddit's behavior saw the writing on the wall three weeks ago and have had time to switch. Lemmy's growth will continue at a slower rate as late adopters make the switch over the next few months. The modest barriers to entry will deter a huge number of casual users, who will either stay on Reddit (most likely IMO) or find other things to do with their time.

I imagine there will be a big uptick in the number of new users but it won't be a huge wave, not initially. Human nature being what it is, users will switch to the official app, mods will try and muddle through with a more limited toolbox and, slowly, the wheels will fall off as people find that the user experience has been degraded, leading to a fairly steady flow of people moving over (and a decent number moving on as Lemmy likely isn't ready for primetime just yet). I think what will be key is whether the most experienced moderators and most active posters make the jump - without them the site is a hollow shell as it is largely built on their disproportionate contribution. That might speed up Reddit's downfall.

The best thing we can do is make their landing as soft as possible.

• Make sure there are welcome posts in each instances main communities.
• Keep an eye on Reddit for people asking how to make the move.
• Keep an eye on the relevant communities here for anyone struggling.
• Get equivalents to the subs set up.
• List these on sub.rehab and similar directories.
• Don't panic! Perhaps this should have gone first.

I might be alone, but I don't want or need a huge amount of users. I'd rather discuss the subjects I want to talk about with a smaller group of users. It would be nice to have some familiarity in the comments as well. On the big subreddits, your comment was practically guaranteed to be lost in the sea of thousands of comments unless you were the first to comment, or had bots upvoting you. If I want my comments to be lost, I'll comment on a Tiktok video.

The only thing we can do is wait and see. It's only three days from now. My personal belief is that there is definitely going to be an influx of new users, but that number won't be too big or unmanageable.

Reddit is gigantic, and while Fediversal alternatives are gaining users rapidly there's a long ways to go.

A useful way to look at it is, we don't have to defeat Reddit. We're creating a community as an alternative. Reddit hasn't lost a large number users when judged as a percentage of their base, but many of the people who are leaving are the ones who see where it's going, and are the power users, the knowledgeable people, the cool people. The ones who make Reddit a place worth being.

It's the same with Twitter. A lot of Twitter and Reddit users just keep their heads down and use the service, as it goes to hell around them. A lot of people join social media sites because it's where other people are, or it's where their friends are. People who joined when social media finally broke the internet away from being mostly the domain of the technically inclined. Even now, a lot of people mostly use it for streaming. These people may not leave Twitter or Reddit ever, because they really don't care about it. But the people who were big internet users, or would have been were old enough in the late 90s or early 2000s, those are the kinds of people that Reddit, and Twitter, are losing.

Now, there are a lot of people on Twitter who I'd have thought have jumped ship by now, but to many people admin decisions feel like they have only a theoretical impact unless it affects their experience, or themselves, directly. The best thing that can be done is just keep on being awesome, and make cool posts that can't be found elsewhere. Once a community gets a reputation for that, people will come naturally.

I wonder. I started with a kbin account, no made an account here. I removed all my Reddit accounts but one; waiting to see what happens on the 30th. I don't use it anymore, but am waiting nonetheless to see what happens, on Reddit and elsewhere. Alternatives still need a toooon of work to be usable by the masses. Please someone provide us with some good UX. I have a feeling that people who were gonna leave already left, the rest just started using the app or simply using the web version. I'm not gonna lie, whilst I'm here, I don't find the "need" / fomo to visit. I don't know if it's the content, the curation or the UI; but something takes getting used to that's for sure.

I find it hard to believe that the average or even above average user will make the effort to switch.

Not if said users "dopamine fix" gets cut off. Which may happen (or not, depending of how intense it is.)

There will be an influx. Not- nearly like the influx over the last week or two though.

But, I would expect a small bump.

No. There are good things to look at on Reddit, and effectively nothing around here. This place is incredibly barren and will continue to be unless creative people show up to populate it... which they won't when it's a nightmare just to get an upvote to stick,

1. Less than you wish for.
2. But enough to cause some trouble.
3. And Reddit management will deny it, because their messaging is primarily marketing for investors, not an attempt to accurately describe the world.

Some will.

Not sure how big a number that some will be though.

For people that use 3rd party apps, suddenly they won't work. They'll try the Reddit app, some won't be happy when they see how it looks and some of those will look at alternatives.

Quite possibly some users have already heard about something called Lemmy, but haven't been bothered to leave Reddit. If their app stops working, that might be enough to make them take a look.

There will be a bit of a surge. It won't suddenly be millions.

For what it's worth I deleted my Reddit accounts and Apollo the day that Christian Selig announced Apollo would shut down on the 30th. No clue how many people will follow suit but it stands to reason that if I did others will as well. I think it'll probably be fewer refugees than some are expecting. I don't think it'll be like the Digg migration

Reddit started to rate limit 3rd party apps already. At least that was the message I got using sync yesterday. Now I'm here. At least some people will come.

The 30th? No. The 2nd? Maybe.

I really enjoy the idea of open source, so earlier today I started thinking isn't that the direction the reddit community should take? Couple of minutes and a search later i found Lemmy and thought it was the coolest concept ever. I may not be most reddit users, but the actions reddit have taken certainly got me here. Lack of apps on ios may be problematic as i don't think most users will think of using web apps (or whatever they're called)

I think it depends in part on whether there are some good, short (!) tutorials on how to use Lemmy on Reddit.

People who just want to continue to browse content will be deterred from walls of text with technical details about the Fediverse and how Lemmy works. It should really be a step-by-step instruction... ideally offering a few instances to choose from at the start. So that the few biggest instances don't break down from the influx and people leave again.

From my experience with unexperienced users, they will drop Lemmy like hot potatoes when they run into the first problem or broken down server.

Maybe a bit but it won’t be a tsunami, most Redditors don’t care about the Reddit backend or mods or api changes. Don’t forget we’re just a vocal minority.

Doubtful, to be honest.

Most who have used 3rd Party apps have already migrated or found some other solution. Those who don't care are still using the official app, and, to be frank, despite what everyone says, the quality content hasn't decreased by that much.

It's still half Twitter and TikTok reposts, and one-fourth 'advice subs' (creative writing), like it's been for several years before this debacle.

Hell, maybe this is a good thing in some ways, where that kind of content can hopefully fall by the wayside over here, instead of choking communities out like it does in Reddit. (I have over 50 popular subreddits on Boost filtered out to avoid this stuff, and it's still not enough to get rid of all of it)

Started here a week ago. There will probably be a spike in users. Hopefully as the weeks go on, more will come. People will try Reddits official app. I think the Fediverse will get more popular, and Reddit will get more unusable.

I would imagine most people planning to head here already have accounts, activity will no doubt go up though.

As the weeks go on though more will find this place and I'm sure there will be more surges to come.

Doubt it. Most people who use a 3rd party app should be aware of the API changes already. If they are interested in the alternatives they would have tried by now.

People who are still unaware of what's going on even after the blackouts, would probably just download the official app.

As much as I'm enjoying Lemmy, I don't see the vast majority of Reddit users making the switch to anything. Mastodon, Lemmy, and kbin are far too obscure, and most people use Reddit for pino and memes. People just aren't very technologically inclined and Reddit satisfies the dopamine fix for most regular visitors.

That can mean bad things for the servers and people who administrate them. I believe most of them isn't prepared for high traffic spike - even though Lemmy is fairly lightweight, huge amount of new user would mean de facto DDoS.

Not as many as you would think. I work in a technical field and most people had no idea there was a protest going on. They also didn’t even know of alternative mobile apps. Most didn’t care and just used the official app. There may be a slight bump, but nothing significant.

I started earlier than the 30th as it's clear that Reddit went full twitter.

I'm guessing a good chunk of people will be split between creating an account on Lemmy/kbin, raddle, squabbles and possibly tildes. One of the alternatives will most likely win out for users switching from Reddit, I hope it is Lemmy but who knows.

I’m here!