Trump losing sleep over polling numbers days before election

MicroWave@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world – 411 points –
Trump Losing Sleep Over Polling Numbers Days Before Election
thedailybeast.com

Donald Trump is reportedly losing sleep, battling anxiety, and obsessing over his polling numbers as the GOP nominee hopes to hang his hat on any sign that he will return to the White House.

A campaign official told Axios that Trump is asking more questions and pushing his staff to work even more to ensure that he will come out ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris come Election Day.

"Trump's anxiety is evident in his late-night and early morning calls to aides in which he peppers them with questions on how things are going---and whether they think he'll win," Axios reported.

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Well, I've been losing sleep and having anxiety attacks over the possibility that he might worm his way back into office again, so no sympathy

I've slept maybe 6 hours since Tuesday.

Just gonna white knuckle it till Tuesday.

Yeah same tbh. But also I don’t expect this shit to really wrap up one way or another in anything less than a week, and then who knows what Johnson will try to pull at the electoral vote count in December…

This thing needs to be a blow out to keep it out of the SC.

Kamala needs to end Tuesday dominantly. 5/7 swing states +Iowa. Its gotta be such that they can't get one case alone to the SC that changes the results.

Well what happens if he wins? Surely your stress level won't go down

I guess the house goes up for sale and I'm back on duo lingo for my Spanish/ Portuguese?

Unlike most lemmings, I have an actually target on my back, and have been doxxed for my political organizing. I know for a fact I'm in some databases used by fascists/ right-wingers to doxx left wing organizers. I've seen how weak Democrats and their voters are when it comes to standing up to power. And while I hated her with great vitriol, I realized how dependent we were on the acumen of players like Pelosi to just hold this shit together for the four years of Trump we already survived. I hold no hope for the weakness which has been demonstrated to be the 2024 Democratic party.

One thing that I've found with anxiety that can help is volunteering and other things that help dem turnout. It moves the needle a little and if nothing else it makes you feel productive and some more degree of agency besides just voting yourself

Can find some phone banks, canvasing, and text banks near you

Also another small thing that can also help is reminding and encourage any dem leaning friends, family, etc. to go out and vote. Helps more than you'd think

Yep. And I think he will win too. I’ve been playing with the ABC/538 and Harris’ chances just seem so slim to me.

I just want to see something reassuring at this point.

Reassurance is women are out-voting men by 10pts in early voting.

Fully 35% of black voters say they plan to vote on election day alone.

538 gave 59% odda GOP to take the Senate in 2022.

Not only do these polls have a margin of error, but they are only predictive insofar as their likely voter models are accurate, and registration volatility and GOP crossover support for Harris means they likely aren't.

There is no evidence that the low propensity incel bro vote is churning out as hoped.

I happen to live in a Republican controlled district in one of the swing states. The people who are enthusiastic about Trump are extremely enthusiastic. As in, flying Trump-Vance flags in their truck down a major thoroughfare.

And, the Muslim population here may very well not be bluffing and vote for Trump instead of Harris - or simply not vote at all. The Israel-Gaza issue is HUGE here.

Unless our major city pulls through for us, Trump will win our state.

The odds are also stacked against Harris based on how electoral votes are counted. If you ask me who I think will win the popular vote, I think Harris will win. It’s just that the game is so stacked, and Republican controlled regions are, well, making it hard to vote.

Did I mention SCOTUS is not impartial?

Any Muslim voting for Trump fully deserves the shit that will rain down on their countrymen if Trump wins. That’s literally the dumbest thing they could be doing, even worse than not voting or voting for “Free Palestine”.

“Any Muslim”? “Countrymen?” “Dumbest thing”?

It feels like “Trust me I know what’s best for you, foreigner” vibes.

And that seems to be a theme in the Democratic Party. “Vote for me, the other guy is worse” but then just maintain the status quo. But how are they representing interests of their voting bloc?

Don’t get me wrong, I’d vote for a literal flaming pile of shit over Trump.

Republican voting is up in the places it matters last time I checked.

Republican early voting is up, yet early voting numbers split is in line with 2020. That's not necessarily a good sign for Republicans.

  • You're going to see more registered Republicans crossing over to vote for Harris than perhaps any Democrat has previously received.

  • More are voting early, but that's to be expected given Trump learned from the 2020 mistake of dissuading his voters from early voting. It doesn't mean greater turnout; it just means the same voters Trump had before are voting earlier.

You’re going to see more registered Republicans crossing over to vote for Harris than perhaps any Democrat has previously received.

I'm fully aware thats the assumption people are making. Its not clear how good or bad of an assumption that is. Its also not clear what damage Harris has done with Democrats relationship to the Arab/ Muslim/ Anti-genocide Democrats. Two weeks ago this thing was in the bag for Trump to the point he was just dancing on stage cus he knew he didn't need to do anything else to win. Then he had a Nazi rally.

Pretending like this thing is in anyway a shoe-in for Harris seems to be oblivious to the facts on the ground. She campaigned extremely poorly and made bad strategic choices that took her from heading towards a blue-wave the likes of which we've never seen to now, a blue whimper. Look at how Harris is doing relative to down-ballot Democrats (538) (D's left, R's right, senate where possible, house where not):

Pennsylvania:

Harris 47.6, Trump, 47.9: -0.3 to team D. Casey 49, McCormick 46: +3.0 to team D. Harris delta: -3.3

Michigan:

Harris 47.9, Trump 47.1: +0.8 to team D. Slotkin 49, Rogers 47: +2.0 to team D. Harris delta: -1.2

Georgia:

Harris 47, Trump 48.5: -1.5 to team D. Bishop 47, West 44: +3 to team D. Harris delta: -4.5

Arizona:

Harris 46.5, Trump 49: -2.5 to team D. Kelly 48.6, Masters 47.1: +1.5 to team D. Harris delta: -3

North Carolina:

Harris 47, Trump 48.5: -1.5 to team D. Beasley 45.2, Budd 49.5: -4.3 to team D. Harris delta: 3.2

Nevada:

Harris 47.1, Trump 47.9: -.9 to team D. Cortez Masto 45.9, Kaxakt 47.3: -1.4 to team D. Harris delta: 0.5

Wisconsin:

Harris, 48.1, Trump 47.4: +0.6 to team D. Baldwin 49, Hovde 48: +1 to team D. Harris delta: -.4

Averages out to about ~ -1.25

So in general, Harris is under performing "the average Democrat" in the swing states by about 1.25 points. Keep in mind, Harris was leading or damn near leading at one point in most of those races, and was on track for more substantial gains going into the convention.

She may win in-spite of those major mis-steps, but its not a forgone conclusion that she will win either. Also, it still has to get through all the states, the supreme court if that comes up, and then finally through the certification.

I think you're giving Trump far too much credit that he was dancing on stage because he had nothing to do and coasting to victory and that wasn't just an obvious sign of dementia. Let's be honest, here, the polls have been pretty much tied and within the margin of error this entire time. So I find this to be a bit speculative and expecting more than Trump than he is really capable of.

I'm nowhere saying this is a shoe-in. I am just explicitly responding and providing context to, "republican voting is up in places it matters"

I also disagree that she campaigned poorly. I think she campaigned exceptionally given the time she had and the needle she needed to thread with both distancing from Biden but also citing that the economy is, in fact, improving phenomenally on the world stage and post pandemic. To pick up the mantle in three months and run as well as she had? The Democrats have honestly not been this united since 2008 maybe, and that speaks to the fact that she brought onboard 5 veteran Obama campaign staffers. Regardless of the outcome, this has been historic.

Sounds like your main gripe is really her policy on Gaza, which unfortunately during election season you need to get the votes needed to cross the finish-line... Which means catering to the Jewish votes in Pennsylvania perhaps more so than the Uncommitted voters in Michigan by the nature of electoral votes. You saw that Elon Musk is spending millions in PA with attack ads with opposite messages targeting BOTH the (larger) Jewish community and the Muslim community in PA — yes? She literally has no choice but to toe the line between these two groups.

Moreover, I want to know at what specific point in time in polling anyone had confidence we were heading for a blue wave when polls are all we know?

The Iowa poll which has been dead-on in terms of gauging turnout in 2016 and 2020 compared to nearly any other pollster just gave Harris a +3 in Iowa. A +3 in Iowa. Keep that in mind.

If we're going to go into more speculation as you're suggesting we do, then I can point to 2022 and show that the Red Wave turned into a Red Mirage. Why? Simply: Pollsters did not account for the over-performance of Democrats post-Roe Reversal. Polling volatility given registration numbers and cross-over from Republicans is very volatile right now. It is entirely possible we see that same over-performance again, and thus a red wave turns into a blue mist, wave, or tsunami even given that Platinum-tier Iowa poll. Don't forget 538 had 59:41 odds of GOP getting the Senate.

In the end who knows and I'll hope for the best and expect the worst. But given the circumstances I think the Harris campaign has done great. I don't think we as laypeople could do better. Easy to throw peanuts from the sidelines.

just an obvious sign of dementia

Yeah we just don't know. The whole campaign seemed to have gone into autopilot at that point, because they were doing quite well in the polls. My read was they went into "do no harm mode". Then they did a Nazi rally which kind of blew up that notion.

“republican voting is up in places it matters”

Which it was on my last check in NC and GA. Republican receipts were up a couple percent points in NC and Harris canceled Ad buys. The tea leaf read was that the campaign was throwing in the towel to do damage control in MI.

I also disagree that she campaigned poorly.

That's fine, but we're not going to agree on this. Harris went from a 38 to 50 in a like, 4 weeks. That's meteoric. Not good, not great, shocking. And that happened in the weeks prior to the DNC, when the assumptions we had about the candidate was her platform from 2020. At the DNC we saw her platform an anti-abortion Republican in the slot that was for a Palestinian Democrat from GA. She made no effort to fix this, and its probably going to have cost her MI. Since about a week after the convention, as she continued to step right, her polling started out and went into serious decline. It became clear she' wasn't going to be trying to gather the disaffected votes of Democrats to win this. She wanted "Cheney" Republicans (keeping in mind that Cheney lost her primary, as an incumbent, with only 27% of the vote.). Only in the past 3 days have we had any signal that Harris still has a chance in this race. She ran a teerrrrrrrrrible campaign post convention. Just straight up. Had she stepped to the left and worked off of the things she campaigned on in 2016, had she distanced herself from Israel Gaza, I think her numbers from before the convention would have continued to increase and that she'd be at about 54-56% nationally right now. The facts are on my side for this one. It does us no good to pretend that things were some other way than they actually were. We can just plot her polling over time and see she dropped the ball. Like you can-not pretend that a candidate who had been dropping in polling for the 8 weeks prior to an election is "crushing it".

her policy on Gaza, which unfortunately during election season you need to get the votes needed to cross the finish-line… Which means catering to the Jewish votes in

What makes you think Harris would lose any Jewish voters with a stance against genocide? If you are going to make that claim, you need to back it up with evidence. All that the Arab and Muslim community has asked for is a seat at the table for the party that supposes to represent them, and they were refused. If Harris' loses MI, this is why, and its on her head. There is no evidence to suggest there is any cost to holding Israel accountable when its already in violation of US law. You don't get to just speculate that things were some way you wished they were. What we can defintivelty say is that Harris has lost the support of the Muslim community in Michigan and that very well may cost her the election.

Harris a +3 in Iowa. A +3 in Iowa. Keep that in mind.

+3 in Iowa is fucking wild. I generally go by aggregates not individual pollsters. The only way Harris does this is with a landslide of women voters who are not showing up in most polls. We are seeing women voting at an anomaly level, but we're also seeing republican voting up. Nate silver says don't read anything into early voting, but also, its a post-covid world.

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Nate Silver left 538, but he is still hosting the Monte Carlo model at the Silver Bulletin. That model is putting it right around 50-50 for Trump win vs Harris win. That's not a polling average... That's the result of playing a few million elections where the results are based on the current polling average.

Okay and on Election Day 2016 he had it at 60-70% Clinton when I went out to vote. He was very wrong

He was very wrong

If everytimw you say something has a 30% chance of happening, it never happens, then your models are wrong because they should say zero percent. If you say something has a 30% chance of happening and it happens, that doesn't mean you were wrong.

It's shocking how many people don't understand percentages.

I do. At 60%, it’s drawing 3/5 cards. I wouldn’t take that chance. At 70%, it’s 3/4. There’s always a chance of the 1/4, sure. But I expect it to happen.

That’s part of why I’m so uncomfortable right now. I wouldn’t take a coin flip.

I wouldn’t take that chance.

Not taking the chance isn't the same as it never happening. Speaking as a decently experienced poker player, you can understand your odds, and make the right call, and still lose because of it. It doesn't mean you were wrong, it's just statistics.

I mean, I played competitive LCG before. I completely understand that it’s possible. I have definitely taken and lost on a 60% chance. It’s just not a risk I would take.

And I maintain that he was wrong. I don’t think it was a 70% chance. By the time I got back from voting, he had revised it closer to 55-60%. That seems more accurate to me. I think he underestimated Trump.

I think it was right around 35% as you say. Unlikely, but not impossible for Trump to win. If Trump hit a one out of three lucky shot, that should be somewhat surprising, but not too very surprising.

Anyhow, he's saying this one is an even coin flip.

Yeah, all these people are acting like at 2:1 odds are some kind of impossible situation still to this day.

Ugh for the billionth time, he wasn't wrong. That is not how statistics works. He gave a percentage chance. That's it. If I say there is a 70% chance Clinton wins, and she loses, that doesn't mean I was wrong.

I think he was wrong. I think he underestimated Trump. I don’t think it was 70/30.

Love how lemmy just toxically down-votes things that don't agree with their bias.

... isn't the downvote button explicitly meant to voice your disagreement with something?

I don't understand why people complain about downvotes. If you don't want to see them, join an instance where they're disabled (like mine).

A lot of people try to say you should only down vote poor quality comments that don't contribute to the discussion.

If every one downvotes opinions they disagree with you just have a homogeneous echo chamber.

Personally, I don't think there's any point complaining about it. You can't hold back that tide.

Honestly I think users on Lemmy are from a very narrow demographic, and to be blunt a lot of users just don't have a very broad life experience. That being the case I think anyone should expect to have some opinions which are unpopular with other lemmy users.

Its not that they "disagree" with it per se, its that they want it to not be the case.

Down voting statements of fact because they make you feel uncomfortable is what is actually happening. If they were willing to step in and make or defend an argument; thats a separate case. Lemmy just knee-jerk downvotes things that it doesn't want to be true.

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Honestly though I hope he just strokes out from the high blood pressure

I want his death to be so nonchalant that nobody even realizes he's actually dead.

like, he goes to take a shit and dies on the toilet and nobody notices for like a day.

and when they find him hes all riggered up and covered in shit and piss.

and the person to find him is a secretary he's treated like shit for years. she takes pics of him, sells them for a huge amount of money, and everyone mocks him for the next two generations.

and in every history book, the last line will be about how he died covered in his own urine and feces.

He was a piece of shit. In his final moments, he was comforted by his kin.

Agree with everything there, but man. I wouldn't want to get on the bad side of your imagination.

Now give us a chalant one

he is making a public statement about the results of the election, complaining about how it's rigged against him. He makes the comment, "as god as my witness, I'm not lying!" when he suddenly grabs his chest and pleades into the camera, "me... save... me..."

blood begins to run out his nose all over his face and suit as his face contorts in anguish.

the cameras continue to roll as he falls off stage into an unmoving heap on the floor.

footage cuts to eye witness testimony where a man with a deep southern drawl says, "We was lookin up at him and God struck him down! he fell right in front of me, and began to shit and piss himself. God as my witness!"

the news will run it as his heart hemorrhaging, conservative media will say his heart was too full of love. but all anyone will remember is he died shitting and pissing his pants on national television.

As much as I'd love it for him to stop being a threat to all that is good on this planet in the most final of ways; We're still in some deep shit even if he were to drop stone dead right this minute between his mob of dickhead supporters, and his running mate.

...Actually I have to go look up what happens if the president elect dies right before he's elected.

Vice pres takes over and then selects a new vice pres.

Uh... no, Walz won't take anything over when Trump finally eats his last french fry. It'll just mean his remaining felony trials get canceled.

Depends on when the death occurs. I don't know what would happen if the death occurred after the people vote, but before the electors cast their votes.

I'm thinking Nov 4th or something. Like, before a great deal of the votes have been cast, or today even.

I know beyond a certain point his VP would probably just be it

"If the Republican candidate dies or is incapacitated after the convention and before Election Day, the Republican National Committee (RNC) will meet to select a presidential candidate and/or vice-presidential candidate under Rule 9 of party rules.

...

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) is also authorized to select the party’s nominee in the event that the winner of the convention cannot run. This is spelled out in the charter of the Democrat Party. However, since DNC members are awarded to states according to the size of the states, there would be no adjustments.

...

If the candidate dies or is incapacitated after Election Day, the Constitution kicks in. The first milestone will be the December 17, 2023, meetings of the electoral college. It may surprise many to know that the electoral college is composed of real flesh and blood electors who meet in their state capitols and sign documents (attestations) that are forwarded on to the president of the Senate (the vice president) for the purposes of counting only! We only hear about electors when someone decides to make a point and vote for someone whose slate they were not on. (During segregation some of these so-called “faithless electors” voted for segregationist candidates.1) Some states have laws binding electors to vote for the winner of the election, others do not. If the winner of the convention dies or is incapacitated it is likely that the legislature would quickly meet to amend the law so that their votes would count.

Finally, what if the president-elect dies or is incapacitated after the electoral college meets and before the inauguration? The authors of the 20th Amendment to the Constitution, the one adopted to provide for a way to pick a new vice president, thought of this. If the president-elect dies or is incapacitated the vice president is inaugurated. Section 3 of the 20th Amendment reads:

“If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President.”"

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-a-presidential-candidate-cannot-take-office-due-to-death-or-incapacitation-before-january-2025/

My feeling is that he'll never face any real tangible consequences for all the shit he's put the world through. He'll have his final Big Mac Attack and dodge justice for good. Permanent delay tactic.

I'd like him to get his mind corrupted to the point he can't spell a word and panicing all the time. And live for another ten years in that screaming baby condition. Just a small puncture in his brains' blood vessels to flood it all - is that too much to ask?

He not anxious about the election, it's the fact he goes to jail for all of his evil shitfuckery if he loses. No amount of microphone fellatio will alay his worry about atoning for his disgusting existence.

I hope he’s suffering.

If he loses, he’s going to prison.

There is absolutely zero evidence that any of his actions will result in any jail time. There is evidence on the contrary though, that through 2 impeachments, however many court cases and legal battles, fines and fees that may not have been paid, that he'll get away with it all.

not to mention the tendency of president's either outright pardoning or at least refusing to go after previous administrations for small things like fucking watergate, or even better, war crimes.

New poll just dropped showing him down by 3 in Iowa(!) I hope he never gets another good night's sleep as long as he lives.

Woah that's that benchmark tracking poll everyone was hoping to see him "only" up 5

This is a BIG deal. Selzer was spot on in 2016, 2020, and 2022. The poll is the gold standard. Even if it's off by 4 with Trump winning Iowa, which would be well outside Selzer's typical margin of error, it would point to a huge herding and overestimation of other polls toward Trump in the Rust Belt. If this is spot on, this election would probably have Harris win with the biggest landslide since 1988.

Florida voter here... I stood in line for about 45 minutes today for early voting. Women outnumbered men by at least 8 to 1 while I was there, which I found a bit encouraging. I enjoyed being able to vote against Matt Gaetz, and I only wish DeStains was on the ballot too so I coulda voted against his dumb-ass as well...

Greetings from NW FL! I'll be there on election day.

It’s be really cool if he lost his freedom for all the crimes we know he’s committed…

Anything that weakens him before his second coup attempt is good in my book.

If this story is true then that actually gives me some hope that it isn't as solid of a plan as I was assuming. If he's stressed about polling then apparently it won't be as simple to steal as some people made it seem.

But not too tired to spend 5 minutes pretending to be a fast food worker or garbage truck driver.

He may be getting close to that point though. Did you see how hard is was for him to get up into that truck?

I just want to know he's not going to be president again. We can't know that for sure until Tuesday evening at the earliest. I'll never forgive Republicans for putting us through this.

Oh, if he loses, he is definitely putting us all through this again. He will start raising money for "Trump 2028" even as he challenges this election.

Honestly, I'm slightly skeptical of that. The man is old, and his health already appears to be visibly starting to degrade a little. That doesn't necessarily mean he'll be dead in 4 years, but barring some medical breakthrough on reversing aging in the next couple years, I suspect he probably won't be in good enough shape to campaign by then. Plus, it would be much more difficult for him to win the nomination in such a case. He's got a cult following that would help, but the republicans also want to win, and if he loses this, that will be 2 elections in a row, almost a decade, that they'll have lost the white house with him on the ticket.

The bigger issue is that his "deny losing elections and actively court bigots while saying whatever inflammatory thing he can to stay in the news" strategy will probably get picked up by whoever replaces him.

Republicans didn't even want him running now in 2024, but his cult are fanatics and enough of them that unless they start unified behind an alternate candidate he'll keep being where he is. During the R primaries this fact was talked about a lot. All the other candidates together had enough to beat him but none of them were willing to be behind another candidate. All the losers endorsing Trump instead of others really didn't help.

He has to start running for 2028 right away if he loses in 2024, because his DJT stock will be in the toilet once his foreign investors can't get the ROI they were expecting to bribe a US President, and grifting campaign funds is the only avenue left to maintain his lifestyle.

I wouldn't call that definite by any stretch. Not because he wouldn't, but because honestly I feel like there's a pretty decent chance he drops dead between now and then.

We're not going to know on Tuesday.

There's a chance it's a landslide and no legitimate argument for a recount. That won't stop the lawsuits, but it will make every reasonable person sleep better at night.

Not all of the mail-in votes will have been counted, at the very least.

Very true, but there comes a point where that no longer matters.

Please get out and vote and get things to that point, my American friends!

Anything that precipitates his inevitable natural death is welcome. Even if he loses the election this asshole will divide and weaken the West as long as he draws breath.

I think if he loses this election he will be dead before the next.

Imagine the stress of his various legal and financial problems, no longer with any backing from powerful people, then going to jail or under house arrest with no contact with his followers and just being completely irrelevant and forgotten, knowing that by the time you're released you'll just be an empty broken frail old nothing.

It would be Trumps worst nightmare. It would break his spirit.

Like a felon who knows his days as a free man are numbered.

Weird old guy looks tired; needs a shady vacation.

There's a nice island in Long Island Sound (or maybe it's still the East River at that point) that he should spend some time in. It would be a nice, calming vacation where he would get three meals a day, and a cot to sleep on, all paid for by the taxpayers of New York State! I hope gets to do some time there.

The dumbass doesn't know he's being played by his aides and their republican masters. He's just their tool.

Good. You orange fuck. You rapist. Racist fucking shit stain asshole. I hope the rest of your sleeps are troubled. May the tightness in your neck grip ever harder in your final days. I hope you’re too much of a coward to commit suicide and you have to live with your actions and see your narcissistic collapse bring the house of cards down.

You’ve forced me to move my family to Germany because of the fascist movement you’ve brought to the US. You’ve had me doomscrolling since at least 2015. You’ve had me changing my travel plans checking flights out of Toronto in order to avoid flying from the US after your inauguration date so that my latino family will have no in-person interaction with any government agent from your regime despite their being citizens. You’ve fucking disrupted an entire world order due to your complicity with Duginism because of your insatiable greed and character flaws leading to Russian kompromat on you, or you’re just a piece of shit because you need the Russian money to keep coming.

You should be in jail at best, and facing a similar fate to Mussolini at worst. So fuck off with your sleepless nights you fucking weak minded piss poor excuse for a person.

Literally anything that makes his day more unpleasant brings a smile to my face

good, but go vote (if you haven't yet) and make the winning margin bigger! we don't need that "voter fraud" bullshit anymore. it's the same song and dance as last time.

Yeah, being in a "president or prison" situation will do that.

Good. Feel what you do to others. This is all your fault after all.

He'll have plenty of time to catch up on some Z's in a prison cell.

What a waste of atoms that 'thing' is. May it suffer greatly before they are permanently rearranged into a nonliving format. May the universe learn from it's mistake.

What is the deal with The Daily Beast reporting on reports already made by different sources?

This is just an article about a report made by Axios. Am I missing something?

I think Trump will win, but I hope he is justified in his fears.