Biden goes into 2024 with the economy getting stronger, but voters feel horrible about it
President Joe Biden goes into next year's election with a vexing challenge: Just as the U.S. economy is getting stronger, people are still feeling horrible about it.
Pollsters and economists say there has never been as wide a gap between the underlying health of the economy and public perception. The divergence could be a decisive factor in whether the Democrat secures a second term next year. Republicans are seizing on the dissatisfaction to skewer Biden, while the White House is finding less success as it tries to highlight economic progress.
“Things are getting better and people think things are going to get worse — and that’s the most dangerous piece of this," said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who has worked with Biden. Lake said voters no longer want to just see inflation rates fall — rather, they want an outright decline in prices, something that last happened on a large scale during the Great Depression.
“Honestly, I’m kind of mystified by it,” she said.
Whenever anyone says "the economy", you can and should mentally substitute it with "rich people's yacht money".
Rich people's yacht money doing well doesn't do shit for 90% of the population. It doesn't pay the rent, put food on the table or clothes on their back. They can't afford to see a doctor or ride the damn bus.
And you want them to be happy because some stockbroker is getting a second holiday in the Maldives this year?
Stupid arrogant fucks.
That's why they say "unemployment being too low is bad for the economy". Low unemployment means higher negotiating power for workers, which means higher wages and better working conditions. The only way that statement makes any sense is if they're exclusively talking about yacht money.
But the rules of supply and demand should only apply to the consumer, not the producer.
Don't even start on the wage-inflation-spiral idea. It's the workers' fault for wanting higher wages as it allows service-oriented business to charge higher prices, driving inflation.
While the theory probably has roots in real-world pricing algorithms (eg how much can we charge people in X region for Netflix) that rise in cost contributes to inflation figures. The fact that wages have been stagnant for decades undermines the whole argument.
"Well the poors can afford it and the shareholders will love it!" FFS
Similarly, when they say NAIRU, you can and should mentally substitute "inexhaustible scab labour pool".
Too bad all those "right to work" people have been actively fighting against negotiation powers for workers. But lets blame the 'yacht owners' and piss and moan about how they take advantage of the lopsided negotiation powers we voted in for them.
I know! We should put exclusively yacht owners in power! They'll totally fix it. /s
When people say they’re not happy about the economy, this is the shit they’re talking about, not statistics.
Ordinary people get fucked in this economy, and there isn’t any party that can do anything about it.
Politics literally sets the rules. If you can get an elected majority you can certainly do something about it.
To fix things we would need one party to take over 153 separate branches of government.
Ezpz
What could possibly go wrong with a one-party state?
Not at all. You’re missing the forest for the trees lmao
The problem is that no matter how much inflation goes down, if the price gouging capitalists that own the grocery stores, the gas stations, and so on don’t stop.
It’s not about rich people’s yacht it’s about the American people being taken advantage of simply because they can. The economy is doing a lot better, record low unemployment for example is a huge metric here but what difference does that make when the grocery stores are selling less for more money?
You’re crying about rich people’s yachts when you should be crying about record price gouging without any cause. Those yachts don’t have impact on the average American’s QoL but price gouging absolutely does.
When investors do better, nobody else does better. The whole system is based on harvesting wealth from society as a whole, and concentrating it in the top 1%. Ever hear of the Gini coefficient?
Yes, price-gouging companies jacking up their prices and paying fuckall in wages are the direct instrument of suffering. But they do so in order to provide yacht money for the investor class, and in so doing they impoverish literally everyone else.
The uh... the yachts are payed for with price gouging my dude. 😕
Median income is up since before the pandemic, even when adjusting for inflation. The average person is better off.
“My rent is going up and food and gas are more expensive. My tooth hurts but I can’t afford to get it fixed, and now my check engine light is on.”
“ACTUALLY median income is up!”
Do you see how that’s not helping?
Gas is actually the one thing I've noticed that has been a lot better lately. But everything else is still expensive from the crazy greedflation every company was trying to pull when we were tolerating post-pandemic cost rises.
Gas prices are one of the few economic indicators most people are aware of, sometimes painfully. If Biden wants to turn sentiments around, lowering those more would probably be the most effective means.
Yes, Biden should pull the magic gas lever for Americans! What is he waiting for??
Health care is actually hugely underestimated, here. Health costs have been going up decade over decade and people's health problems have been stacking up. While in the '70s and '80s people could get treatment, someone born in those years started out with the ability to get medical care but has increasingly lost access as they've gone through their lives.
Those people are getting older, now, and it's getting to the point where they can't just ignore the stuff they can't afford. Conditions that would have been easy to treat (but often rare/expensive) are becoming chronic, fatal, or debilitating.
Life expectancy is starting to drop and while that drop is largely due to COVID (which, by itself, is an insane thing) it's also a warning sign about what's to come.
Prices go up every year, it's by how much matters. For example, rent has been going up slower than inflation for a year now. For every person whose rent went up, there must be a lot of people who don't go online to verify their rent did not go up
You've got numbers on the brain. Think like a human.
We're living in some of the best economy of our lives. Was nobody here alive in 2009?
I was. The economy didn't feel much different. Barely had anything left at the end of the month and a major expense would bankrupt me, just like today.
Except for all the people who lost their jobs back then, yeah, no different
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/economics/americans-are-going-hungry-strong-economy-rcna128105
Revealing article. When food prices jump 25% and rent 30%, then wages need to jump similarly to make up the difference or else people can't afford to eat or live. But wage growth still hasn't outpaced inflation and won't until the end of next year. (I don't know about anyone here but my salary certainly hasn't caught up to inflation yet. Not even close.)
It is no wonder regular people are going hungry and think the economy is failing them. Because it has. Until more people can afford the absolute basics their perception isn't going to change.
Cost of living is outpacing it. Housing in particular.
Yeah every time I get a raise I think "finally I'll be able to buy a house soon" then I look at the prices and see I'm still losing ground.
Wrong
Definitely not true for me personally or anyone I know well enough to know their financial info. Most people I know are barely able to stay in place, with their 'raises' almost immediately consumed by inflation and higher rent everywhere.
They are not the median, then, but maybe in the lower half of the income which is not doing as well
Yeehaw! I don't know anyuh them median's neither! Any y'all met a median?
the grocery stores and the rest of the capitalist pigs have yet to stop price gouging
Groceries really are the problem. I lived comfortably up until about a year ago. Now the checking account gets pretty low every couple weeks. And that's with decent raises for me and my wife. I don't even care about gas prices except in how they add to the cost of everything that gets shipped. Food prices are killing us.
Yeah I went from not having to really check prices when I shopped to having to be careful so I don't accidentally spend $200/week.
A bag of ruffles, which I swear is only a tiny bit bigger than the size that used to exist between the snack size bags and the regular bags, was something like $6.75. It's legitimately cheaper to get the gourmet kettle cooked chips.
Just stupid expensive for some things.
If "the economy" doesn't translate to the purchasing power of our labor, then it's a useless metric.
it’s about capitalist scum pice gouging the fuck out of people for literally everything. The economy is doing better but we don’t see it directly because we’re still being abused as if the economy hasn’t upturned
But stock market go up! You're welcome!
"We just don't get it, our portfolios are performing so well! I just sit here and rake in money how can the
poorspeople not love this economy!?"There's never been as wide a gap between the rich and the working class, either. Gee, I wonder if that could have something to do with it?!
I assumed that was true. The article, however, claims
Ed: even if the article is correct, the gap is still massive. And so the increased profits (due to price gouging) may make some numbers look better, I can't help but think many households are still struggling to catch up?
Supposedly pay has increased across the board but enough to catch us up to, say, 2019 buying power? The article claims households are better off than in 2020.
The article seems to want to blame those with dim views of the economy without a satisfactory explanation of the psychology, just a bunch of guesses that, to me, don't seem convincing. The supporting evidence seems rather cherry picked.
If food is up 25% since the pandemic, have all wages also gone up that much? Ok, ok, sure, overall cost of living probably hasn't gone up that much. But my wages most certainly have not even come close to catching up with the current COL.
So maybe it is the middle classes, rather than lowest earners, who are feeling shafted. Maybe those in charge aren't looking at the right statistics to understand the perceptions.
Also that means pretty much nothing without also looking at how much more money the richest of us have. Their wealth increases by the trillions during covid. To say that inequality is now better because some of the lowest earning workers might be making a few thousand more each year is disingenuous at best.
Never been as wide a gap between pollsters and the public.
Wages have not kept up with inflation. Why is this so hard for the media to understand?
Wages have shot up like crazy over the past few years. But the FTC has not enforced antitrust regulations over the past 30 years which led to everything being owned by megacorps with no competition - so we're getting the screws turned on us right now. The FTC is finally engaging in some antitrust measures, but it is too little, too late. It's kind of hard to blame that on the current regime.
Shot up like crazy is a weird way to talk about how the federal minimum wage is still $7.25
$15,950 per year with full time employment.
Which is why 37% of people have multiple jobs, which is why unemployment is down, which is why the wealthy/out of touch pretend the economy is fine, which is why people in power ignore the suffering of the working class.
- President George W. Bush to a divorced mother of three. Omaha, Nebraska - February 4, 2004
My wage has certainly gone up. I also can’t seem to go grocery shopping without spending $400 now. Literally everything is more expensive, bills included.
So if I look at my wage as 100%, rent and groceries and bills all take up a larger percentage of that then just five years ago.
Unless there are enforced laws around consumer pricing, every company on the planet is gonna raise prices when wages go up.
You literally use the term regime to describe yourself.
It really doesn't help to have snooty liberal assholes telling those of us on fixed incomes that our financial situation is great because their 401k's are appreciating and we're just too stupid to realize how great the economy is.
The Hillary Clintonism runs strong. Bill at least pretended to give a fuck about people. The democratic pitch being "hey, at least we're not doing a Gaza to you! Be happy with your scraps" needs a rework Stat.
Because they’re calling the stock market “the economy” instead of actually looking at the qol of the average American. It’s just more ammo for the government only cares about the rich and corps argument
No, no they aren’t, your comment is simplifying the issues here, not sure if you just don’t know what you’re talking about or what.
Things like record lows for unemployment for example, nothing to do with the stock market. There have been a lot of important wins for Americans.
with that said, the number one reason it hasn’t touched the QoL for the average American is because all of these capitalist pigs refuse to stop price gouging. That is where it hits us, the gas tank the grocery store, etc. they skyrocketed prices while shrinking sizes and all that because fuck you
Open your fucking eyes, the bigger problem is our out of control corporations
Unemployment is a bullshit number. There are a lot of ways you can be uncounted in those numbers.
Not saying I am aware of a better number, or if one even exists.
I don't know either, but it's absolute bullshit. As far as I know, unemployment only counts only those who are looking for work, but can't find it. What about those unemployed, want to be employed, couldn't find a job, and gave up?
People are working two and three jobs to get by. And our unemployment figure doesn't count people who have given up looking for work. Saying "unemployment is low" is not the flex you think it is.
The problem is that employment isn't enough not that there isn't enough employment.
You should write speeches for Biden
Just on a tangent here - I agree with everything you said except for the gas price part. Gas prices are at a 3 year low, and when you adjust for inflation we are not that far off from an all time historical low price of gas.
There are cars out there that get insanely good mpg now. 100-200 empg for EVs and even 57 mpg on a Prius. The fact that 90% of the cars on the road in the US are SUVs or trucks just shows how selfish people are. The average US driver drives 37 miles a day, at $3 a gallon & 57mpg that comes to a monthly gas expense of $58. A pretty minor expense when you compare it to rising costs at the grocery store.
Stronger economy for who?
The people selling missiles to Israel
Why the fuck would anyone be “mystified” by the fact that shit is still way more expensive than it used to be, and we’re still only getting paid what we used to be?
Fucking liberals.
The people who bought homes at 3% interest rates are doing fairly ok. The increases in Healthcare, food, and utilities really suck but are mostly manageable if your housing cost is fixed.
Until we see policy makers talking about how rent prices are outstripping any wage increases, a large portion of the population will continue to feel increasingly crushed and disenfranchised. Averages cease being useful measures when the difference between the budgeting with a fixed mortgage vs variable rent is so significant.
Fortunately, I am in the first group, but had been renting for a long time before that. A lot of people I care about are still renters or stuck living with family. Even though I'm comfortable, I can't take anyone seriously who says this economy is healthy without addressing the millions of people struggling to make ends meet.
I really wish we'd see policy makers shift to measures of quality of life, including financial security, over raw economic metrics. Those metrics are even sometimes at odds to each other. For example, people fully owning durable homes and cars that don't need much maintenance would increase their quality of life, but decrease measures of economic activity.
Companies make the same mistake all the time: They optimize for the wrong metrics and then wonder why things break.
I don't know how anyone can call this a strong economy when 20,000 people filed for bankruptcy for medical expenses last year, and twelve million kids face food insecurity.
I agree completely. 1/5 children are food insecure in my area. 20%. That's insane. We are a wealthy country and I'm in a major metropolitan area and yet, 20% of kids don't know where their next meal is coming from.
Need to bring back the mustache mayoral candidate guy.
Wow. There's no question who's side the reporter is on.
Then do something about it.
He isn't a dictator. He needs at least another branch of government to get the most effective solutions in place.
He has been insanely effective despite having a broken Congress and brazenly corrupt Supreme Court.
If he can't do anything but he shouldn't be running his mouth. It just makes him look weak when he says this shit, corporations keep price gouging, and nothing happens to them. He needs to back it with force.
Why would he do anything about it if all he has to say are words, and people would still vote for him? As long as the Republicans are hard-fascists, the blue fascists can’t lose!
One party is actually running on getting rid of undesirables, the other is milquetoast supporters of regulated capitalism with no real changes in personal freedoms. It’s ridiculous to call both fascists.
Capitalism is fascism.
You help nobody but fascists with that statement. Capitalism hurts and kills yes, but in capitalism it’s a consequence as opposed to the point like it is in fascism
You don’t understand how capitalism was designed to work. Thats obvious.
Abcnews shut the fuck up. You republiQan corporate pulp mill fuckers.
“Voters feel horrible about it” fuck you.
The oligarch-owned media shouts that everything is terrible when the only thing they care about, the interest rates that impacts their cost to borrow capital, is going up because that limits their ability to run their VC Ponzi schemes. The far-left media and far-right media shout that everything is terrible all the time because they both start from wanting a revolution that tears everything down and won't ever let reality get in the way of that being the proper solution; things must always be bad and getting worse to justify their revolution. And that's basically of all of our media.
What far-left media??
PBS.
LOL!!
I came in here to try to explain it again and find post after post of people explaining it for me. I am so proud of you guys.
Now, somebody tell the DNC that...
I swear this is like the 5th "Economy is great but people are suffering for some weird reason" article on this community lmao
And every single time without fail everyone in the comments is showing a big middle finger to these awful pieces lol
It always feels like a conservative saying something about "states rights."
Sure the economy is good. But good for whom?
Remember kids, 'the economy' means 'rich people's portfolios'.
it's not his 'fault'.
if you want someone, anyone, to blame, it's the republican clowns in congress and the greedy af CEOs.
The Fed should have raised interest rates 10 years ago. Bunch of pussies.
My dad told me once: "never trust the words that come out after the 'honestly' or before the 'but'."
This is because economists don't knock on doors or talk to people.
Gr. Have to admit, it's kinda annoying when people are still mystified these days. I could understand being mystified 5 years ago, but today, you should have too much evidence.
It's the information space, of course, and how its being utilized to try to rip the west apart. You think being within that process is going to feel stable, normal and predictable? No, no probably not.
Mystifying my ass. Only way it's mystifying is if you believe all conspiracies are fake. Which is just as dumb as thinking all of them are real. Countries absolutely plot against each other though, this is an extremely real and common form of conspiracy throughout history. Look as Kissingers legacy. We engaged in plenty of global conspiracies ourselves, throwing out this or that dictator, training militants here and over there. Do people think "that could never happen here?" or something? Even knowing how dumb Americans can be sometimes? And how about companies, driving these things for profit?
Terrified, infuriated, completely demotivated. Fine, I can understand all those. But mystified just makes me want to slap you. This is not mysterious at all, it's intentional manipulation with propaganda that is achieving sound results. Is she not seeing the propaganda or something, do I have to email her some examples so she understands?
Then there's another piece to the puzzle where many Americans just don't realize inflation represents year-on-year change, and instead view it as total change over time. That's honestly the smaller piece of the puzzle imo, though, Americans are often a little dumb on the details. Fucking annoying though, that I can see this and I'm just a dumb motherfucker on the internet, not a professional pollster.
/rant
Sorry, that one really bugs me, huge pet peeve. I think something has to be wrong with you at this point, if you can't understand why Trump gets the votes he does all through America, and how that relates to things as small as people misunderstanding inflation. Or misunderstanding race... or gender... or economics... or science... or facts... or the media... or education... or the federal govt... or the first amendment... or the civil war... or ... I could go for a long fucking time.
Anyone in here mystified? I figure people around here probably know better, since Fediverse kinda is an information space project in itself.
edit: Thinking about this further, this is probably fueling things like anti-semitism and Q too. Anyone can notice that there's large amounts of disagreement on the things I listed a couple paragraphs up.
In looking for a potential source for the problem, it's easy to stumble on the idea of some shadowy cabal running the world and driving these things. This solution is simple, and it feels good. It's kinda sexy, in a fantastical way. Whereas the much more mundane possibilities are ugly and complicated, and would not make for a fun story at all.
Yeah what if it's not that she or anyone is confused. What you seeing here is propaganda, plain and simple. The reader is supposed to come away with the belief that the economy is good and that therefore things are good, and that any perception they have otherwise is wrong.
Yup. I hate when people play that game expecting us to just follow them down the garden path.
We're not stupid and it grates that they all seem to think we are.
I try to think of it as theyre too stupid to lie well, like a young child. They're not stupid, but it lowers my blood pressure.
Inflation is down. This is not propaganda, but something you can check yourself. Are the prices in the supermarket still rising rapidly or not? If not, then inflation in your area, or the rate change is happening at, is down.
OP never said anything about inflation
If they wanted to bring up any other specific we could've discussed, that'd have been fine. Inflation has been the main line of attack on Biden's economy for the past 2 years though, so I went with the obvious.
Unemployment? GDP? Hell, even corporate profits and the stock market. Specific things though, one at a time.
Fighting emotional responses with statistics is a doomed strategy
No other way to talk about the economy, unfortunately, it's pretty statistical. Though I did try to explain how they could get a sense of inflation (locally, at least) just for themselves. Inflation can be handy that way.
Sadly, elections are not based on rational thought. If people feel the economy isn't doing well - for whatever personal reasons they have - they don't vote for whoever's in charge.
You're not going to "well actually" your way out of malaise. People have to feel like things are getting better for them and the people they know. No amount of statistics will change that.
And that's fine. But, that op specifically wanted to talk about the economy and propaganda, so I figured may as well talk about one of those. Economy is gonna get into statistics, and propaganda is a subjective mess we'd just end up disagreeing on. So I went with economy.
I can't live how I wish things should be. I have to deal with hard realities, like how I can talk about something objective and measurable and maybe, possibly, get somewhere concrete.
And if people were rational I'm sure your statistical analysis of the economy would be effective. But people aren't rational, and no amount of statistics is going to convince someone who can't afford their rent and groceries.
Fair point. Hard realities, though. I can't really control feelings in any way where I would still be able to feel okay about myself. I'd have to lie and manipulate to control feelings, and I don't like that. All I can do is say what I think is true, and leave it up to them.
As long as you recognize that your statistical truth and other people's lived truth can both be real at the same time. And when it comes to elections it's the latter that's going to have the most impact.
Hell, gas prices haven’t been lower in years where I am.
Inflation =/= economy good my good fellow! Try and see what I'm saying before you dismiss it outright. Let's change the topic slightly so i know what you really mean.
Do you think there is no propaganda in the us?
No, let's stay on inflation, it's very simple. Inflation is a percentage that prices are rising at each year, right?
Well, i guess youre too smart to get off message huh? Just shoot on over to the block button buddy, youre talkin intro to econ like its a slam dunk and i don't like the way you smell
Details are important. We look at one thing at a time for the same reason that scientists try to reduce down to one variable during laboratory testing. Because it let's us actually get to sound conclusions eventually.
if the economy is so great why am i taking a shit outside in the tenderloin
Yeah, it's not getting stronger. It's crumbling before our eyes and they're just blatantly lying about it to save face.
Biden's economy ;)
Lol I bet Hillary Clinton wants Trump to win in 2024.