MEGATHREAD: whatever the hell is going on in Russia right now

alyaza [they/she]@beehaw.orgmod to World News@beehaw.org – 629 points –

please post any subsequent updates here unless they're huge happenings. i just woke up and half our news front page is updates which is nice but also A Lot and most of these don't have to be their own thread

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Well that was... weird.

I saw several alleged videos of russian frontline units pledging their support for Prigozhin. Combine that with how little resistance wagner faced and Putin might have realized how weak his position is and given in to replacing MOD staff. Not a good look the same day he declared Prigozhin a traitor and promised punishment.

Trading the long-term stability for the short-term. Because now every aspiring russian warlord know that if you don't like something about the state, all you need is just a big enough private army to bully the kremlin, lol.

What a weird outcome. Putin now looks weak and Prigozhin looks stupid for trusting any deal that Putin could make.

I wonder how many russians are actually happy with this outcome. Kremlin loyalist must be depressed, since their leader basically turned into a puppet. And the extreme wagner supporters wanted it to go all the way. So both sides hardcode supporters are now depressed. Some wagner members probably just wanted putin to concede even after his speech so they may be happy. Civilians that support none may be happy that their society didn't collapse and cities turned to war zones.

Ukrainians are disappointed that the distraction didn't last a little longer, but none the less content with a weakened Russia.

"Opportunity to return to Africa."

Yeah, I suppose massacring badly equipped CAR "rebels" (while also guarding their diamond mines) and civilians is a lot more fun than having to fight someone being equipped by the military-industrial complex of the combined West.

Edit: oh and related to how many Russians are happy with this, this Mastodon post had some numbers from a Russian political blogger:

A popular Russian political blogger Tatiana Stanovaya ran a poll on her Telegram earlier today, asking: “how do you feel about the current situation”

Votes:

  • 12% supporting Prigozhin
  • 48% “let them fight, there are no heroes here”
  • 29% “this is a catastrophe, I’m scared”
  • 8% against the coup
  • 3% “give power to the people”

https://t.me/stanovaya/1647

The numbers will be skewed due to the audience, but still interesting>

Those figures can't be at all reassuring to Putin.

This is nothing new. Politics has long involved compromise. Hardliners rarely get what they want.

Just had a thought, what if Putin has taken Prigozhin's family hostage and pretending to take the deal is just a play for time while they rescue them? It would be a great movie plot.

What if the Ukrainians paid Wagner to do this to cause a distraction? That would be pretty crazy too!

I don't know why anyone is taking any of this seriously. For all we know, this was done to lure Ukraine into following them into Russia to fall into a set trap, or theater or withdraw and resupply without looking weak. It is odd that it looks like Putin had weakness, but they can always say that's what it was later and the propaganda will work like it always does.

Do you really think Ukraine has an interest in following them into Russia? If I was them I would just want to take back Ukraine and secure the borders.

They don't. But Putin in his own disinformation bubble may think so.

They currently have an operation attacking into Russia's boarder...

Only if you accept Russia's description of where the border is. The border as defined by every other country in the entire world says Ukraine is still in their own territory.

There have been some Ukrainian sympathisers setting off bombs/shooting down aircraft/etc inside Russian territory - but those aren't Ukranian soldiers and they're pretty generally just a few random/nonconsequential attacks and don't show any signs of being linked to any "Operation". The front line of the battlefield is nowhere near the border.

It would be weird to shoot down friendly helicopters and launch cruise missiles at friendly formations just to make a big feint.

Ukraine just needs to take the land bridge to Crimea, I don't see they have any incentive to go inwards towards Russia.

Well, it would certainly be a massive moral blow to Russia if Ukraine just up and freed Crimea. The bigger challenge would be installing a leader that isn't going to turn around and give the country back to Putin.

Do we know for certain that any of that happened though? Because I haven't seen any video of actual engagement between Wagner and Russia.

Well, here's some footage with a shot down C&C plane. I mean it still could be not Wagner, but it would be an awful coincidence.

I mean we still don't know shit beyond the fact that Ukraine is holding strong and slowly reclaiming territory. The thing about this story is that it shows that the Russians are divided, and that's not a picture you want to show in a war, especially to your people. These events are costing the Russians dearly in one way or another.

I think you watch to many movies real life isn't that well planned most likely he got mad launched an ill planned invasion then made a deal with putin when both realized they could lose everything fighting each other

I mean, what would Wagner do once they reach Moscow? Sit at Putins desk and start giving orders? No one would listen, they'd all still take orders from Putin sitting in St Petersburg or just quit an go home and wait it out.

I imagine they would take over the city, and completely destabilize Russia.

It doesn't matter if nobody wants to listen to you if you become the local law enforcement.

And soon Russia will face the same problem as Iraq and Afghanistan did

Probably just re-enact Jan 6 but Russian for the propaganda points, then skedaddling before the hammer comes down.

2021: "The Russian Empire has the second strongest army in the world."
2022: "The Russian Empire has the second strongest army in Ukraine."
2023: "The Russian Empire has the second strongest army in Russia."

Trying to constantly remind myself that none of us are immune to propaganda, and that it would be really easy for this scenario to be misrepresented as a clean-sweep against the Russian military. Wagner's def gonna cause serious problems but I'd frankly be shocked if this ended with a successful coup or any meaningful change (tho I hope I'm wrong)

Even if they win, this dude is a literal war monger fascist. Not better or worse than Putin.

Actually Prigozhin is arguably waaayyyy worse. Putin is a ruthless warlord just like Prigozhin, yes. They have equally virulent ideologies, yep.

But Putin is a politician first and Prigozhin is 100% not. Say what you want of Putin but deep down he still gives a shit about projecting certain images of control, law, etc -- he still values the opinion of certain international communities. He is still the leader of a government, not just a battalion or an army.

Prigozhin doesn't give a shit about any of that, he is a simple and ruthless warlord without any pretense of governance at all, who only understands force and who has no qualms about being open in his toxic ideologies.

I think it's extraordinarily unlikely Prigozhin actually accomplishes any of his own goals towards Russia because he isn't a politician and he's just a thug, but I also think it's equally unlikely Putin's Russia recovers from this. Wagner was Putin's pitbull. They were virtually the entirety of professional real soldiers Russia had under its command. No more pit bull changes things dramatically. We can easily expect a social "downgrade" of Russia's status as superpower in the eyes of other nations. That leaves some big doors open for China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, and of course, the United States.

We may be on the cusp of a second break up of the USSR, further breaking Russia down into disparate nationstates. That possibility offers a lot of problems on its own. It's no longer a question of "rogue warlord gains control of russian nukes", now its "russian nukes don't exist, now those nukes belong to 15 new whatever-istan nations, each without any pre-existing relationships or treaties". That's scarier. Doubly so because in that big muck of former Russian states, Wagner could still be around in the middle of it with the biggest dick on the block. He'd predictably go Atilla, march through every one of them and conscript every dude over 16 to fight. And history tells us over and over just how those situations end: global-scale wars. Conqueror types never stop, they just keep conquering until they get stopped.

Just to add to this, a Prigozhin government would likely be far worse for Ukraine. While Putin had few qualms brutalizing civilians and committing war crimes Prigozhin has none. He's a ruthless, murderous thug. The best outcome would be that he is defeated by the Russian military but that they have to withdraw troops from Ukraine, allowing the Ukrainians to seize the initiative with their offensive. The worst outcomes don't bear thinking about.

How do you know all this about him? I've never heard of this guy until 5 minutes ago and am very curious.

Edit: 2022 corrupt person of the year... Great.

Have you been following the war in Ukraine at all in the last 16mo? If not, that's surprising, but understandable.

Anyway, Prigozhin and his Wagner PMC group of mercenaries have been talked about consistently since the beginning. In the last ~6mo or so, he's been constantly in the eyes of the (Western) media as his rhetoric against the Russian military leadership—not against Putin, though—has steadily been increasing all the way to this sudden outbreak of internecine violence.

Aside from Putin, he's basically been the #2 face of this war from the Russian side, at least in Western media, over even Russia MoD head Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, who's the Chief of Staff of the Russian military, who are supposedly in charge of prosecuting this war.

Oh dear god the war has been going for 16 months now?

I stopped following it after the first month.

Thanks for the information that's very helpful.

I think you're mistaken, it is Putin who is the warmongering conqueror here, not Prigozhin.

If you think Prigozhin isn't a warmongering conqueror, you don't know much about him.

They both are. I'm late to this thread now, but the best case scenario for Ukraine would have been Prigozhin not backing down, Wagner getting wiped out, but the Russian military facing heavy losses, which would significantly hinder their ability to wage war.

And then maybe some other less warmongering oligarchs assassinating Putin

I have such mixed feelings. Happy that there is visible weakness in Putin's power, which could maybe lead to his eventual removal from power which would be amazing. Very frightening though that the ones replacing him might have the same goals as Putin, except this time, actually be competent at their jobs. That's a horrible outlook for Ukraine. Oh man......

The guy has gone on the record stating that he thinks the war in Ukraine was not justified and was done simply to please the defense ministry. Who knows what he would get into as a leader, but at least with him in charge Ukraine should be less worried.

Likely to see de-escalation of the war in Ukraine if he succeedes. But I don't have hope for a whole sale withdrawal.

My guess is at a minimum he trys to hold Crimea

Wouldn't that be the best case for Russia? Take out military leadership, get someone else to be president, defend Crimea, try to get soldiers out of the rest of Ukraine, and get support for peace from the international community?

Essentially just a change in leadership for a, fortunately, abysmal failure.

Right now it looks as if he wants to maintain status quo, walk up there, and have this done with in a few days.

Yup.

With rumors the defense minister has been detained coupled with Wagner blaming the defense minister for the lies justifying the invasion.... MAYBE this is some weird way for Putin to save face/stay alive while pulling out of eastern Ukraine?

But that sounds like bullshit, this whole thing is getting weirder by the moment right now. Smells like a lot of misinformation flowing from all sides right now.

Suppose Putin is in an information vacuum, like I've seen reported a few few times, then it doesn't seem as as crazy. Still batshit insane but not as crazy. Cool to think about though.

For context: I'm Estonian. Our nation has a great deal of history with Russian imperialism, under both tsarist and soviet rules. Even Putin has threatened us before. So clearly I'm not a supporter of the Russian regime or their imperialistic ambitions. However, I'm going to present an unpopular opinion.

The balkanization of Russia, if it were to happen, would not be beneficial in the long run. At least not for the people at large.

Yes, the big western cities would be a lot more liberal and open to democracy than the vast countryside. However, we need to consider the fact that different Russian oblasts have VAST differences in economic power. The big cities will thrive on their own, sure, but their tax money would then no longer be used to help people in the more remote regions. Not that these regions are getting a lot of attention now, but at least under a different regime for the current Russian nation as it is, it'd be possible to improve infrastructure, education, industry, etc. for towns in remote oblasts.

And leaving those people farther and farther behind, will cause new unrests. And definitely there would be military dictatorships who promise better lives, etc.

Therefore, a division of Russia into small states might actually cause more issues in the long run. Not that I'm a fan of it staying intact either.

It's a choice between two evils of unknown magnitude, the only good thing is that none of us are the ones making that choice so we don't have to live with it on our consciences.

To me, the larger issue for the world outside of Russia is the ensuing chaos would be pretty scary when there are nukes sitting around. All it would take is one bad actor to get ahold of those for bad things to happen. I don't think it's likely and I can't currently see the motivations for using nukes on any other nations apart from Russia itself and Ukraine, but chaos is chaos and many would consider the evil we know to be safer than whatever else lurks around the corner.

Personally, though, despite being aware of this it would regardless please me so much to see Putin fall. I would especially love to see Russia democratize more, but I'm afraid that's probably a pipe dream anytime soon. Uncontrolled chaos generally doesn't lend itself to more democracy.

Yeah, I fear you are right. Democratization hardly ever happens from within the system.

Counterpoint: Smaller oblasts may be better suited to deal with corruption and accept foreign aid

Yeaaaaaah unlikely in that culture.

It might cause more issues in those states but wouldn't each of them be weaker? I don't know how to fix Russia, but if it can't be fixed I'd rather they not be strong enough to attack other countries.

Depends on whether they'll manage to get control of the nukes. They're likely stashed all around the nation, but the question is how difficult it would be to gain launch capability, since the existing infrastructure would likely not be usable by local militaries.

We're also talking about the potential suffering of millions of people.

Chances are decent that the nukes don't work any more, so that may not be a threat at all.

I'm still reluctant to put that hypothesis to the test, though, for obvious reasons…

I doubt the tritium is being reliably refilled, but a second stage fizzle is still a disaster, and I'm sure at least some of them can still create a sizable explosion

Right you are. I also wonder whether the rockets all still work, but as you say, at least some of them probably still do.

If the local economies fail to sustain and source advanced material and components needed for the infrastructure, it might end up not being a big problem.

I imagine the nations would end up falling under the control of other nations, such as China, who does not desire nuclear war.

But yes, it would very much still be a humanitarian nightmare for those places.

I doubt anyone would seriously want to fire a nuke even if the country fell into a civil war.

It's more of a saying or sentiment so to speak - that the system could be nuked and people would perhaps arguably be better off to reform from scratch, with the knowledge of hindsight rather than with the current difficulties.

Having some of these countries turn into democracies is better than having none of these countries turn into democracies. Large countries like Russia cannot cohesively rule over its populace without establishing some sort of dictatorship. Democracy in Russia didn't last because there were too many rich oligarchs corrupting government power back to a form they could control. China is in the same category.

If they have any hope to establish and maintain a democracy, the country must be broken up.

Nice theory but it doesn’t hold up very well. Both Canada and Australia are enormous countries that are both well functioning democracies.

There are a number of great sources that describe the conditions for good democracies - and intolerance of corruption is a vital condition. That’s something that has never really been taken seriously in Russia, so in some ways it’s no surprise it’s come to this.

India is also an example of a very corrupt and badly managed democracy, so your point is moot.

The reality as far as we've seen is that certain cultures where information is tightly controlled, traditional masculinity is prized, and sole survivor mentality among men is very valued, there tends to be more of an acceptance if not casual support for the simplicity of a dictatorship.

The other issue is that not all democracies are equal and an educated and experienced populace where individuals are most capable of taking care of themselves while providing maximum utility for themselves and others is where democracy is most likely to be of greatest compliment for a system.

About 90% of Canada lives 100 miles from the southern border, so I wouldn't call the whole country "populated". Australia is in a similar situation with its deserts. Sure, Russia also has cold, sparsely populated regions, but most of the landmass is still habitable.

Even then, Russia is still twice as large as both of those countries, and has at least double the population density.

How about a republic or collective of smaller democracies? Similar to the EU, but with borscht, saunas and separate regional currencies, and one major shared currency, e.g. Ethereum, for cross country business exchange of goods.

The big cities will thrive on their own, sure, but their tax money would then no longer be used to help people in the more remote regions.

As an Australian, I assure you it is possible for a country of "big cities" to fund activity in remote areas. I won't say we do it a perfect job of it here, but we do a decent enuogh job and some of our remote towns are far more remote than anything in the northern hemisphere. Some Australian towns are several hours by airplane to the nearest city and don't even have a reliable source of water. And yet, the people living there have relatively comfortable lives.

The problem in my mind is that the big cities and the remote areas would likely become separate countries, so there'll be about a 100x difference in GDP per capita between the richest and poorest post-Russian nations.

Beau has three videos out on it already. He's really good for context on military things.

Does he have a military background or something? Why is he more of an expert on this topic?

He is intentionally vague in his videos, but he has worked with the military in some capacity as a civilian before, and he still has a lot of contacts in the military. Mostly though, I personally trust him more than most because I've been watching him for years and he usually turns out to be correct. He's also pretty level headed and willing to admit what he doesn't know.

I've not done a deep dive into his background, since he's clearly been in journalism for a long time with the choice of tangents he goes off on and presumed questions he addresses. I needed only one video to know he was becoming part of my daily news diet. If he does not have a military background in some way, I would be surprised.

I think he said he was a contractor for army but didn't go into any more details. He was also in prison for smuggling immigrants across border if I recall correctly.

His real name is Justin King, and his background is... checkered at best. His politics on screen are solid but he also has prior convictions for human trafficking. These are things you can look up. So I take everything around him with a grain of salt.

So I googled around, and found this conviction: https://www.justice.gov/archive/opa/pr/2008/February/08\_crm\_145.html

Justin Eric King, 27, of Chipley, Fla., has been sentenced to 41 months in prison followed by three years supervised release resulting from his conviction on charges of conspiracy to commit visa fraud, visa fraud and conspiracy to commit alien smuggling, Assistant Attorney General Alice S. Fisher of the Criminal Division and United States Attorney Gregory R. Miller of the Northern District of Florida announced today. The defendant and his co-conspirators brought illegal aliens, mostly from Bulgaria and Romania, to work in the hotel industry in and around Destin, Fla. King was sentenced by Senior District Court Judge Lacey A. Collier of Pensacola, Fla.

This isn't usually what we think of as "human trafficking." It seems that the people he smuggled understood what they were doing, and not being forced or coerced it. If that were the case, additional charges of exploitation would have been filed.

This is what like 99.9% of human trafficking is. They’ve successfully propagandized anyone who conflates sex trafficking with normal undocumented human movement.

An important distinction here is that he was convicted for the visa fraud kind of trafficking and not like sex trafficking or something. There's a huge difference there but people hear trafficking and just assume it's the worst kind imaginable.

I appreciate the background. I've worked with a lot of journalists with checkered pasts and am one myself, so that sort of thing doesn't bother me so long as he's good at predicting the things he can based on experience and data and is clear when he can't. That his politics align somewhat closely with mine makes it easier to watch, but I'm there for the analysis.

Second this. His channel is great for short yet accurate/level-headed views on topics like this. He will always get a shout-out from me.

He's been almost as fast as social media on this one, and I trust his sources.

Beau the human trafficking CIA asset? Nah thanks.

Now hearing from Al Jazeera news and NYT that Prigozhin has agreed to order his Wagner troops back to their bases. What in the hell is going on?

Just saw on the news that Wagner is turning around after Lukashenko got involved?

I saw that as well. Idk, it just seems really unlikely to just back down from a coup because Belarus gets involved..

This feels like wrestling "Kayfabe." Like, was this just some weird feint by Russia? Try to bait Ukraine into doing something? This would be a new level of gaslighting if so...

So strange.

I had that thought too, some false flag to get Ukraine to launch it's main counteroffensive early

It could also be a way to shake out any elements of the Russian military or other paramilitary groups that are looking for ways to get out of Ukraine. Like, maybe the attacks on Wagner coming from the Russian army are rogue elements where Wagner is obviously the most effective target for friendly fire.

This has been months in the making. From what I can tell it's a mix of Russian incompitence in the war effort and the Kremlins attempts to control more of Wagner. I have no idea where this is going or what either side has in mind but it's definetly motivated by Wagner seeing the Kremlin itself as being the thing holding the war effort back.

Backing down like this puts a target on their heads. It’s never wise to do something like a coup and not follow through .

Belarus is more likely to side with Wagner over Lukashenko. That clown will be gone the second Putin is.

Swan Lake

If Moscow stations start playing this, it's a probable sign that the Coup is legitimate and the transition has started. Bonkers to think think that in our lifetime we'd see the collapse of a nuclear power. Even if Putin and his government survive this Coup, I don't think he'll have any political capital left to lead. By 8:00pm EDT, we'll have a pretty good idea who's left standing.

This is the second collapse of a nuclear power in 30~ years

Except that with the USSR falling the transition of power for Russia was a bit more peaceful than this seems like it could go since in 1991 Russia didn't have a complete power vacuum due to Boris Yeltsin was accepted as the legitimate leader of the succeeding Russian Federation. It's looking like the shit going on in Russia now makes the August coup attempt look like a peaceful misunderstanding

Except that with the USSR falling the transition of power for Russia was a bit more peaceful

At the time that wasn't a given. Gorbachev was under a lot of pressure from hardline communists within the party to crack down on the uprising and no-one really knew where the loyalties of the military lay. As it turned out Yeltsin won the day and the transition went peacefully but it could very easily have turned out differently.

What are you talking about? Yeltsin literally bombed congress and killed many congress people… the transition to capitalism from the USSR was and is still one the worst humanitarian crisis ever.

This ones different because we don't have a "smooth" transition of power to another government. This is the total collapse of Putin's autocratic government which he set up over 20 years of ruling. We had randos on twitter talk about how Wagner forces were talking over nukes. During the soviet collapse, Russia's military had complete control of it's nuclear arsenal. We get front row seats to the collapse, an analogy would be the train wreak in East Palestine whereas the World is the town and the train is Russia.

Hasn't it been stated it's not a coup?

Prigozhin says his aim is "not a military coup but a march for justice" and it comes after a long-running war of words with Russia's military chiefs escalated dramatically.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60947877

I don't know what the difference between that and a march for justice are though.

People attempting coups have historically called them noncoups.

Also, if Prigozhin wins, Putin will probably end up being "killed by traitors", but Prigozhin will vow to avenge him and bring all traitors to justice.

Historically, there's also been a lot of nincomcoups that ended rather abruptly.

The other historical trend seems to be finding out who funded or influenced it after the attempt. I'm curious to see how it pans out

It's down to branding. Prigozhin is framing this as a fight against the military leaders who have deceived Putin and caused him to make mistakes, but he does not blame Putin himself and is leaving room for Putin to change sides.

That framing aside, this is still a coup with the goal of overthrowing gov't leadership by force.

It's all word play, total information control and fog of war; by not attacking Putin directly, they avoid upsetting the Russians that still have total confidence in Putin and maintain that possibility that Wagner could still end up in alliance with Putin anyway, like with Chechens.

Attacking the military talking-heads however, doesn't risk anything, most Russians don't really trust the entire regime anyway, just Putin.

Once Wagner have more and more control of Russia, they can just go after Putin.

This is all speculation on my part tho.

"This is not a coup" is roughly akin to "I'm not a Nazi" ... you've brought up something outside daily norms to such an extent that you're engaging in framing.

I get that. What I'm wondering if there have been any further developments or changes to that. Even hints to the contrary.

If things did escelate or spiral and there was no word as to directions or aspirations I feel like it could be a massive confusing fumble

Speculation is pointless; all one can do is keep up via nonsensationalized channels.

This is going to be one of those days I miss being in a newsroom.

It doesn't even really matter what Prigozhin intended at this point. Putin has made it clear he's treating this as a coup attempt, so Prigozhin has to either pull off a successful coup or die.

If it's not a coup, it's going to get Prigizhin killed and Wagner disbanded. So I can't see it as much of anything else.

I doubt Wagner will be disbanded, they'll be absorbed or forced right into the military.

Wait, how could we possibly have a good idea TODAY? Aren't they in Rustov, almost 1000 km from Moscow?

I see reports of them arriving at Lipetsk (430km from Moscow) just now, after conquering Voronezj (500km from Moscow) about 6 hours ago.

They've already taken Voronezh as well, some 500km from Moscow and have been reported to be advancing through the Lipetsk province, 350km south of Moscow.

Putin has already fled Moscow to another province and some top leadership have fled to Turkey. They are moving FAST into Moscow.

They're already moving fast toward Moscow. They're saying they're in Voronezh already but fog of war means we don't know for sure for a while.

They're taking over Rustov because of a huge military supply there.

Nobody in their way to stop them, Russian's army is in Ukraine. If they continue like this Moscow will be put under siege by tomorrow.

My pet hypothesis is that Putin and Prigozhin were engaging in a bit of play acting to stage Wagner troops for an action against Ukraine (Prigozhin benefits) and illustrate the legal and financial measures that Putin will take against powerful dissenters (Putin benefits).

With 25k troops, there's simply no way Wagner could have succeeded in a coup. The regular army is better equipped and could have severed their supply lines with minimal effort, starving the coup with minimal bloodshed. They could have done this in their own interests, and not necessarily in defense of Putin.

Considering how swiftly Wagner's offices were raided and their assets seized, this affair makes more sense as a morality tale to caution antsy oligarchs than as a military action.

Putin declared Prigozhin a traitor on national TV, then fled Moscow, then gave Prigozhin everything he asked for and let him walk away. All within a day. This wasn't some 5D chess nonsense. Putin just surrendered.

Putin hasn't done anything yet except flee to safety yet, he doesn't personally hold a gun in moscow to hold it as his own. A surrender would mean a civil war in wagner's favor. Currently not at that point of desperation but we are getting there. An interesting situatiuon nevertheless.

Putin's absolutely still in charge of Russia until someone else tries something. He still lost to Wagner though. Prigozhin got everything he wanted out of his little stunt. Putin caved because he was afraid.

Despite what a lot of people have said, this wasn't about Prigozhin trying to pull off a coup. Wagner was supposed to be absorbed into the Russian army, and rumor had it that Prigozhin was going to be in serious trouble when that happened. Now he gets to take his still independent army to Belarus and got his enemies in the MoD fired. Prigozhin got what he wanted, and Putin couldn't stop him.

Where does this information come from. All I've heard is the Wagner guys aren't heading towards Moscow and some deal was made involving the president of Belarus. Are there specifics that have been made public?

Several news sites are reporting that part of the deal was for Prigozhin to go and live in Belarus. It's not clear whether he's supposed to take the Wagner troops with him, but there are questions about their loyalty to him now, since he may have set them up to be absorbed into the Russian army.

I haven't been able to figure out from any of the arti Lea I've seen.. What is it that Putin ended up giving to Prigozhin? What was Prigozhin asking for?

You give too much credit to putin and prigozhin in terms of strategies thinking. Usually when things seem simple they are and in this case it's just short term vision by both sides and signs of weakness in both as well. It's really funny how some people try to spin this situation as "putin staged it all to draw Ukraine into a trap and to show his strength"

Just woke up, read the Post's feed, then The Economist's coverage, and I can safely say I have no idea what's happening. Suffice to say, I'm not grabbing popcorn yet.

Civil war broke out, some dude close to Putin offended Putin and Putin bombed his friend, friend didn't like and started a coupe, civil joined in and thus making it a civil war. Putin friends is a military dude that still want to invade Ukraina after the civil war.

This is what my understanding is, someone please correct me.

We need a remind me bot. I've no clue other than Putin fled Moscow and they guy controlling a bunch of mercenaries is coming for him. I'll look back at this post later to see what the consensus is and if they supply links.

I think I read Wagner forces number about 25,000? Can anyone contextualize how big a headache this will be for Russia?

Considering that they needed Wagner to take over many areas in Ukraine and their military couldn't do it, it'll be a huge headache.

It also destroys Putin's reputation of being in full charge. Think about the impact on the public, Putin has total informational control over Russia and this fucks him over.

Remember, they used to say that Wagner's head would be cut off quickly if they ever "think" of going against Putin and there you go, it's all BS.

I'm skeptical that this will affect his reputation, it's just too easy to spin this for a propaganda-captive population so deep in the hole. But it would be great if it did.

The tactical impact seems more promising to me, but I'm also woefully uninformed so what do I know lol.

"CNN has tracked Wagner mercenaries in the Central African Republic, Sudan, Libya, Mozambique, Ukraine and Syria. Over the years they have developed a particularly gruesome reputation and have been linked to various human rights abuses."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/06/23/europe/wagner-prigozhin-criminal-case-explainer-intl/index.html

It sounds like Prigohzin could be a big headache for Putin.

If he deposes Putin he could be a big headache for us all. There are already reports of Wagner seizing nuclear weapons facilities in Russia.

Add to that a brigade (2,000-8,000) of Russian special forces that defected. Those guys are probably worth 2-3 national guardsman.

Edit: allegedly

Question is, is it true?

Hard to tell. What is abundantly clear is that they are meeting little to no resistance. Otherwise they would have never gotten this far. Whether troops really are joining them I can't confirm. It's all coming in very rapidly from sources I have no experience with.

I'm going to update my previous comment to add "allegedly."

There have been a bunch of mixed reports, I think it's tough to say exactly what's true. I saw one person suggesting that given Wagner's numbers in Africa it's likely there's really only half that number there. But there have also been reports of Russian military and intelligence personnel switched to support Wagner.

As someone else said, I think for most people it's just a matter of wait and see what shakes out.

Interesting. So sounds like this could land anywhere from fizzling out to full-on coup, depending on still-unknown variables like the true state of Putin's support within his own ranks.

according to The Telegraph, Russia may end up disintegrating entirely over this https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/24/russia-verge-collapse-elites-try-escape-wagner-coup/

Imagine if St. Petersburg and maybe Moscow were part of a new democratic nation that eventually joins the EU or at least opens up borders and trade with EU like Norway and Switzerland for an example. I'd probably visit Petersburg at least.

One can dream.

i'd honestly love to visit St. Petersburg if that happens

It's honestly a beautiful city and us Estonians used to have cruises to Petersburg much like there are cruises to Stockholm. I never went because I don't speak Russian and I've been uneasy about visiting the country under its' current regime, but if things change for the better, I'm tempted to go.

So reading twitter...

It seems much of the "Ammunition shortage" Prigozhin was loudly complaining about was stock pilling. Similarly much of Wagnar was pulled out of Ukraine to rebuild.

There have been suggestions Prigozhin was planning to launch an attack on Sunday but the Russian MoD attacked a Wagner site forcing him to launch a day early.

One tweet suggested Wagner soliders had been calling family all day (e.g. before a big operation).

Seizing Rostok Von Don was a clever initial play, since its a major logistics hub. This allowed him to arm his troops and provides a base if the coup fails.

It seems the South Military District gave up without a fight, with soliders surrendering.

Prigozhin has sent a shock force to Moscow, its bypassing major cities and trying to get there ASAP. There is a belief senior Kremlin officials will abandon ship.

Various helicopters are attacking the shock force but it seems Wagner are using air defence. Various MI-8, KA-52 and a ll-s2 have been shown destroyed.

The Tik Tok bigrade are trying to attack Rostok, considering they aren't "true Russians" and were used as barrier troops, this doesn't seem to be going down well. They are also stripping Donetsk of defenders to do this.

Seizing Rostok Von Don was a clever initial play, since its a major logistics hub.

This also means if the coup lasts for more than a few days, the Russian Army's going to start running out of ammunition in significant portions of the front in Ukraine.

Wagner troops taking over nuclear facility

https://hachyderm.io/@mariyadelano/110600171242124978

A nuclear weapons storage facility. The prospect of Prigozhin and his prison-recruited mercenaries in charge of nuclear weapons is not reassuring.

While that's true, those weapons are currently under the control of a fascist government and increasingly desperate despot, so I don't see how them being in the hands of mercs is any worse. At least you know what mercs are motivated by.

Needs an "allegedly", apart from being a questionable source in the first place (as a random social media account, nothing against the person running it), the source you quoted makes it clear that they aren't confident in their own source.

There’s something up. Both putin and Wagners head aren’t stupid.

I feel it’s a plan to justify future actions.

Yes, Poutine highly control GRU with an iron glove, and Wagner is controlled by GRU. It's a masquerade to kick choigou and guerassimov because they are bad.

Wagner opened fire on Russian forces. Shot down helicopters and apparently at least one transport plane. That's a lot for just playacting. No pretense would be needed to replace a general in wartime. It's a common occurrence throughout history, and Putin wouldn't need an excuse either way, since he answers to no one in the Russian government. As to the statement that neither Putin nor Prigozhin are stupid... Well this entire conflict has provided an enormous amount of evidence to the contrary.

It makes both Putin and Prigozhin look bad though. Would they go through this damage to their reputations and prospects just for that? And couldn't Putin just have fired those guys without going through some elaborate pantomime first?

Putin benefited from:

  1. Showed that the largest military group couldn’t complete a coup
  2. No longer need to justify the damage Wagner group done
  3. Shows Russian that he prefer to negotiate rather than bloodshed
  4. Shows international theatre that Russian troops are loyal, peaceful, and follow orders
  5. Identified disloyal government officials who sided with Wagner if any

And the list goes on

Wagner head got out of it and terrorisim accusations in the future

I’m still thinking that it’s not over. Moscow still on high alert.

  1. Showed that the largest military group couldn’t complete a coup

This showed that they wouldn't, at least under these circumstances, not that they couldn't.

I agree with all other points though.

I think this is legitimately the commander of the most elite force being fed up that his men are dying in a losing war and his recommendations falling on deaf ears. His "I need ammo" video from a few weeks ago certainly wasn't part of some grand masquerade either, the city's supply lines were just destroyed by Ukrainian artillery.

He's not demanding Putin out, he's demanding changes in military leadership to properly supply and command the war forces. He can't just leave the war at this point, so he had to do something drastic otherwise most of his forces will end up as casualties. It also gives him some setup to actually leave the war if his demands aren't met.

All of this "highly controlled" talk has gotten a little hyperbolic given recent events. I think there's serious reason to think Putin has an at least somewhat loose control of everything except the oligarchs and GRU. He absolutely has the wealth and kompromat that is claimed and there's no question he's had several oligarchs assassinated, but beyond that it appears his control and oversight is relatively weak. Probably because competent people are dangerous to give too much power to. Look at Prigozhin, he's far from being capable of knocking Putin down but he's still starting to make demands.

What happens when you give barely competent and corrupt people the majority of the military leadership roles? Ukraine - the best equipped troops were sent in first but the plan barely went beyond that and went completely tits up once those forces got wiped out. They keep outrunning the supply lines of what little they do have. Morale is in free fall.

I don't think Putin is close to getting ousted, but for the same reason Russia can't be more than a barely functional country. There just aren't enough competent people in powerful positions that he trusts/can control to run a country.

What are the chances this will impact the war in Ukraine in a positive way for Ukraine? Will we possibly see an end to the war soon?

Zero chances it will end the war. Russians are used to swapping out regimes all the time.

This is just an infighting between two criminals, whoever wins is not going to be better for anyone.

Wanger is war fighting force, they're not a peace-keeping unit, they'll keep the war going if it benefits them.

The same regime has been in power 24 years.

That's nothing in the whole scheme. We're talking centuries here, not the last 24 years. Stalin, Gorbachev, Lenin, Bolsheviks, Romanov, Czars, Cath the Great, etc.

Ok you could say the same thing about France. Also you repeated the same groups multiple times. The Romanovs were Tsars. Stalin Lenin and Gorbachev were all Bolsheviks, and although there was a struggle when Stalin took over Lenin to Stalin was just the passing of the torch between one revolutionary leader to the next. So really your long list of regime changes were: Catherine the Great from 1796, the Tsars who lost power in 1917, and Gorbachev who brought the USSR down in 1991. I'll give you that Russia went through a period of intense chaos in the 90s between the dissolution of the USSR and when Putin took over. But 3 regime changes over 250 years isn't that much.

Russia pulled out of WW1 because the Bolsheviks successfully took power and didn’t want to fight. Let’s hope history repeats itself.

I don't think it would though - they have limited supplies and people, and if they take Russia they'll need all of that to keep it. Fighting a second war at the same time would be more costly than it's worth I think.

They're not used to running a country, either. That's a different skillset than their usual, so they may run into extra problems there.

I believe it ensures a much much sooner end, yes, but exactly when depends on who wins.

If Putin wins his authority will be significantly weakened, his army will be significantly weakened, and it's likely he'd have to pull more of them away to ensure his leadership and security even after Wagner is defeated.

If Wagner wins the army will likely be immediately recalled out of Ukraine, they will want to confirm the army's submission to new rule and ensure any counter coup attempts, but also it would be very easy to blame Putin for everything and win popularity with the Russian people by bringing back soldiers who would likely have died pointlessly.

Crimea, however, may be a point of contention, depending on the opinions of the winners.

100% true. Putin will survive and will be forced to come to the negotiating table. The war in Ukraine will be over in a couple of months.

I guess I don't really care who wins as long as the war ends sooner, and no nukes are used.

I'm also no military strategist, but it seems like a good time for Ukraine to start pushing their counter offensive into overdrive, no?

Rushing can also do more damage than helping; it all depends on what is happening for sure.

However, it is a double-edge sword here. One is that they don't need to waste limited resources they have (ammo, humans, tanks, etc) on units that may be called back to Russia to help against the rebellion or join the rebellion.

Waiting for that means they'll fight against much smaller units and so on, which can protect Ukrainian's soldiers from getting killed as well. So, they should take this time to shore up their offensive, give them breaks, watch for new weaknesses to appear and so on.

Slow and steady can be much more effective than fast and fail.

Remember that many Ukrainians do not want to kill Russians, many of Russian soliders are still their brothers and sisters that were conscripted or forced into this.

Probably not quite yet - they'll want to give Russian units time to retreat from the frontline and intervene in Russia.

Seems like a good time for them to be enquiring about Warner’s day-rates

I am going to be glued to Kbin all day for this. This won't stop the Ukrainian invasion though, will it? It sounded like things will be continuing as they have but under a different leader. There's no real "benefit" to Ukraine in this, is there?

Without the Wagner group, Russia will have much lesser professional troops on their side. And this entire thing could also have a severe impact on the morale of the soldiers.

If this goes on long enough it will most likely fuck up morale and put a considerable strain on the actual state army. That might give Ukraine time to at the very least recover. If the internal devastation is big enough whoever comes on as the next dictator might even have to technically end "the special operation" because there's no resources to keep it going and they could do so while saving face, because it's technically Putin and Shoigu's fault for mismanaging everything. The totally best possible scenario is this happens, it takes them a few years to build the military back up and meanwhile Ukraine manages to get both in the EU and NATO, at which point attacking them again becomes a whole different deal.

That's most likely a terribly unreasonably optimistic scenario. More likely whatever it is that's happening right now takes a few days, either Putin or Prigozhin dies and things keep on going somewhat the same, regardless of who's the de facto dictator. The country is mostly being ran by shady business interests that depend on the dictator, but if they agree on installing a new one could do it.

LOL @ me... "a few days"... 😄😄😄

And it seems.like Progozhin moght not be the one dying, but Shoigu will either be defenstrated or at least sent off to a Siberian prison.

There is also the possibility that it won’t be continued depending on the outcome of what the Wagner group is trying to do. If they go for a full coup, that could mean the war is over.

Full coup won't end war, the assumption is that Wanger is for peace, it's a war-fighting merc company, war benefits them.

Going to war against NATO-trained and -equipped troops doesn't benefit them. There are much easier opponents in developing nations that they'd probably prefer to be fighting against.

That is true but that doesn't bode well for these developing countries either, no one benefits from Wanger taking over Russia, it can go wrong very fast.

But Wagner boss said that the justification for the war is wrong and that Putin was tricked by the defense ministers to go into it in the first place. I highly doubt that they would continue a conflict they see no advantage to continuing. No, this won’t stop all wars but it might stop this one.

The same boss that has said a lot of bullshit in the past several months and did nothing what they said they were going to do in public? ("Out of ammo" example)

He's a known liar. Don't believe his BS.

Apparently he's been stockpiling for this attack, so I would say "did nothing" is inaccurate.

Exactly, this is the boss that was complaining to Kremlin and folks on telegram that they're going to pull from Ukraine because Russian's military isn't supplying them with ammo.

They didn't pull for months, still fought with "almost zero ammo". They suddenly have ammo now? The same ammo they said they have zero of?

This is the "nothing" I was referring to, I didn't say they didn't do anything in general, I'm saying they said a lot of bullshit and did nothing of the sort. Thus, don't believe what they say in public, because in the background, they're doing something else.

I'll clarify what I mean in the original post to "did nothing what they said they were going to do in public".

Right, and it also means that Russia is fighting on two fronts, no?

I don't anticipate this lasting that long. It might be over very soon. Putin will not tolerate any more of this and will go absolutely brutal on the entire leadership if he has to.

Exactly. Russian conscripts have never been the most enthusiastic soldiers, and hundreds in Rostov have already joined Wagner.

Actually, any new leader would likely leave Ukraine immediately. The war has been an overwhelming failure and embarrassment, and the new leader can blame the old leader for leading the country down that road.

Putin would leave too if he didn't think that admitting defeat would get him killed.

The benefit is a distraction on the Russian military side, it may give the counteroffensive from Ukraine a tiny boost. The real impact is probably negligent, it's not going to make any major changes.

Also, FYI: it's not "Ukrainian invasion", Ukraine isn't invading anyone.

It's full-on war between Ukraine and Russia.

The impact on this isn't going to stop the war, only a surrender/peace agreement and full withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukraine's 1991 borders will end the war.

Russians are used to swapping out regimes and leaderships all the time, so this may not change anything and the war against Ukraine can still continue under a different regime.

I'd imagine there are benefits to them in that it weakens their enemy, because either Wagner loses, and therefore Russia loses the forces they represent, or they succeed, which would mean uncertainty and chaos among the regular army during the transition. There's also potential for Russian forces to be weakened anywhere that Wagner was holding and removed troops from, or anywhere held by troops that get redirected to fight them, and off course that this will mean Russia takes losses and spends equipment fighting itself instead of Ukraine.

There's no real "benefit" to Ukraine in this, is there?

Well, it appears that some of the baddies will be killing off each other, saving Ukraine the trouble.

Kadyrov is pulling his Chechens out of Ukraine and chasing after Wagner.

i hope putin a very dive to see the mosva in a experimental submersible.

Kadyrov's Akhmat units are heading to Rostov to supposedly counter Wagner's advance. As of this moment the head of the column is 40km away from Rostov. Worth remembering that just a few weeks ago Kadyrov's Chechen troops were tipped to take over from Wagner in Ukraine. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-31-2023

Can't have a proper russian circus snafu clusterfuck without Kadyorov's Klowns.

Kadyrov's Chechens are being pulled out of Donbas to fortify Rostov.

source : https://twitter.com/Cen4infoRes/status/1672615799620612099

Whose side is Kadyrov on? Or is he his own side?

They're on their own side, they're mercs and loyal to money, just like Wagner. Right now, they're taking Putin's money.

However, as soon as Putin's down or out of money, they'll switch sides easily.

Keep in mind that Chechens were at some point at war with Putin as well and Putin won that one. Kadyrov's an ally of Putin at this point.

Might be a good time for Ukraine to lob a few care packages his way /s