2024 Presidential Election Megapost!
Edit 12:11 PM 11/6 Pacific
Kentucky (8), Indiana (11), West Virginia (4), Florida (30), South Carolina (9), Tennessee (11), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Oklahoma (7), Arkansas (6), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (4*), Wyoming (3), Louisiana (8), Texas (40), Ohio (17), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Utah (6), Idaho (4), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), North Carolina (BG-16), Georgia (BG-16), Pennsylvanya (BG-19), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Maine (1*), Alaska (3), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6) called for Trump.
Vermont (3), Connecticut (7), District of Columbia (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Delaware (3), Illinois (19), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Colorado (10), California (54), Washington (12), Oregon (8), Virginia (13), Hawaii (4), New Mexico (5), New Hampshire (4), Minnesota (10), Nebraska (1*), Maine (3*) for Harris.
2 counties in PA have extended voting hours due to voting machine problems. 9:30 PM in one, 10:00 PM in the other.
Multiple precincts in Georgia have extended hours due to bomb threats.
Edit 03:09 PM Pacific Harris wins Guam.
This thread is for the Presidential election, my plan is to start marking wins as soon as they are called, sorted by time zone.
Some states are going to take longer than others. Polls generally close at 8 PM local time, but they can't start counting early/mail in votes until after the polls close.
Wisconsin in particular has an interesting system where ballots are collected by MUNICIPALITY, not precinct, they have over 1,800 ballot counting locations and don't report until ALL 1,800 are in.
https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2024/10/22/wisconsin-voters-election-milwaukee-security-denier
Currently 226 EC votes from Blue States:
4+19+10+7+3+3+4+10+11 +4+14+28+4+3+13+54+12 +10+5+8+6
NC called for Trump. -16 here, +16 to Trump.
GA called for Trump. -16 here, +16 to Trump.
PA called for Trump. -19 here, +19 to Trump.
AZ and NV both called for Trump, +11, +6
Which leaves 312 EC votes in Red States.
9+6+6+6+8+6+10+5+3+7 +3+40+30+11+8+17+9+11+4+3+4+4+3+16+16+19+11+6
270 to Win.
Online map here!
I am extremely troubled for the future of America. Not because of the current election results; but that this many Americans think Trump was and will be a good president. It’s infuriating the amount of single issue voters there are in the US.
It looks like people think Trump will fix the economy since that is the leading issue in exit polls. Massive trade wars are going to make the inflation of the last 2 years look mild. Americans are deeply stupid.
Yeah it's daft.
Every Trump voter interviewed says something like "yeah he's not perfect but I'm concerned about the economy".
What they actually mean is that they have no idea how the economy works but Trump makes them feel better about hating minorities.
I think fewer people think this than think trump and his ignoring rules and laws is their ticket to power and influence for their cause and thing that trump is a means that is justified by the end.
RFK in charge of HHS and Leon in charge of gutting the new deal. Jesus Christ.
EPA gone.
Fight against climate change over.
SCOTUS justice Aileen Cannon.
No fault divorce gone.
National abortion ban.
Free speech destroyed.
Ukraine gone.
Gaza gone.
NATO alliance gone.
U.S. economy wasted.
U.S. military in the streets.
National concentration camps.
LOL. Wtf, Americans?
Stupider than Russians now. Not hyperbole.
Goons and bullies with all the weapons. On all sides. That is the answer to the Fermi paradox.
America will get the president that it deserves
Ukraine recently said they could make a nuke in a couple weeks if needed...
Trumps going to make that need a reality, so nuclear war just joined the likely list.
I've given up on my country. Fuck this place. We get what we deserve.
Don't forget the National Weather Service.
I fear this is an abbreviated telling.
I can't believe we're a few votes away from having a stooge at the helm and an anti vaxxer as the head of the CDC and FDA.
This fucking hurts.
And don't forget that Herschel Walker will be a DoD lead.
I was trying to :(
Pretty god damn sad that American are this fucking racist and stupid.
Texas waited until the 29th of October to mail out my ballot. As of today (November 3rd), I have yet to receive it. I fully expect Texas to fuck me over.
That's crazy late to mail it OUT. Too late even to mail it back. You'll have to either find a drop box or hand deliver it to county elections HQ.
If you don't get it in time, you can always vote in person.
I can't because I am currently out of state. I believe the cutoff is the post mark date. Still, if it doesn't arrive tomorrow, they fucked me...and my wife.
Oh, maybe the out of state re-direct caused the delay? Trying to think of a best case scenario here...
There’s not one. The Texas election officials and DeJoy did this intentionally.
I signed up for the ballots in August because I knew I'd be out of state at the time. It is pure fuckery to mail them out on the 29th.
They should be prosecuted for election interference
And sued for election disenfranchisement.
Is there any kind of online source to print it out?
My parents printed their Arizona ballots from an online link. We're all out of the country. However AZ seems to be taking the polar opposite approach to voting. But please check if there's anything available.
Everything is rigger in Texas
Trump kills a million Americans with Covid and they put him back in office. Unreal.
Not just that, part of his campaign message was "are you better off now than you were 4 years ago". 4 years ago was lockdowns and bodies being stored in refrigerated trucks.
And buying toilet paper from the back of a scalpers Subaru.
It is real though.
You can't expect a society dominated by oligarchs (not just on an economic and political level, but more importantly the broader social conscious) to put up any effective challenge to an oligarch candidate.
The lack of "on the ground" protest activities when that US abortion protection law was repealed is a perfect example.
Doesn't help that the US opposition is largely corrupt as well.
Well damn. This is as much a referendum on the character of America. What a searing indictment that it's even close at all.
Exactly. No matter who wins.
I call it a general intelligence test for the nation .... and even before its over, everyone already failed.
No, 50% of America failed the test. The rest of us did our part
Missouri passes a statewide abortion protection which will be overturned next year by the guy they voted for President.
Brilliant!
Put a fork in human civilization. It's done. The door is closed on climate change.
Yeah, fuck. I just feel wrecked by this.
Arm yourself. This is just the beginning.
So this is what we are as a nation?
Yes. Yes, it is.
It's not what we want, but reality doesn't give a fuck about what we want.
We have to get ourselves ready for the shit storm that's coming.
When the going gets tough (and we all agree things are tough right now) you just need to appeal to fear and tribalism.
Thanks America, for the hell you're about to unleash.
They sold out Ukraine to Russia, whats left of Palestina to Israel and Europe to themselves. This will be the new low point in modern history.
As an American, I'm sorry. Fuck. I feel like one if those "NoT aLl MeN" people.
Ukrainian here, most the of the country and the government thought Trump would win. Some of this could be attributed to just more brand recognition (no one knows much about Harris), but I think people generally felt that Trump was more in line with US society.
FWIW, we've been fighting russian domination for centuries, so in a sense this is just another chapter. No other option than to do what we can.
As long as you voted, it is not your fault.
I have young kids.. My wife always asks me if bringing them into this world was a mistake. I was always the optimist telling her I didn't think it so. Now I don't know what to feel. What are they going to do... Ugh. This is a waking nightmare. I'm scared.
I have a one year old. I'm terrified at how things are going to look in 4 years.
I have five between 20 and 33. I weep for them. All of us.
The choice was a future for them or a now for the elite. The Me Last
generationpeople seemsto have won - and even if not, showed that we are lost anyway without a paradigm shift.10, 3 and 1 here...
Yeah, I decided many years ago not to have kids precisely for this reason.
The best you can do now is to raise them to be better than this.
My kid grew up in the first Trump bullet that we managed to barely dodge.
We planned at that time start to look at colleges outside of the US and my kids is actually interested now.
Guess my family might end up being another first generation immigrant yet again but that won't be a bad thing.
I'm sorry to say, friend, that climate change itself made it a mistake. This is just icing on the cake.
This next 2 years was my last chance to have kids. I kept waiting. I don't think I can do this anymore. I wanted to be a good parent but what kind of parent knowledge brings a child into this? I feel so lost.
Can you afford to adopt? There are plenty of kids who are already here, might as well take them in and improve their lives if you can.
Thr thought has crossed my mind. My partner hates children and just wants a quiet peaceful life just the 2 of us. Took decade to convince that this isn't a terrible idea and now I can no longer fight against it. It's over. Even if Trump doesn't do anything crazy, I know he won't make things better and we are out of time to wait for a better outcome. Nature is uncaring.
Raise your kids to be loving, respectful people, that's the only chance we have for a better future. If we leave the future generations to be raised by people full of hate we're doomed.
Wait until the FBI, IRS, and DOJ is weaponized against Trump's opponents. With Presidential immunity. Jesus Christ.
The rest of the world is watching, America.
Don't fuck this up.
We already fucked up. The SOB should be nowhere near the candidacy, but here we are.
Let's not fuck up more.
Good point! Let me rephrase. 😁
You've dropped the ball, America. Don't trip over it, faceplant and give yourself permanent brain damage.
Goodness knows some of us are trying our best. I mean keep in mind our country is a democracy in name but systemically props up white supremacists in excess of the real popular opinion. And a media disinformation machine keeps the working class divided against itself, with open support from the wealthiest and owners of the most popular social media platforms. Social media platforms that, let's be honest, are super recent inventions we are not yet capable of engaging with safely. It makes it an uphill battle to try to reach out to people whose necks aren't on the line. And the responsibility to do so falls upon the disenfranchised themselves, who are increasingly saddled with economic and health burdens that might just kill us someday.
I get the potshots at Americans, but frankly I don't plan on taking the blame if this goes tits up - many of us did a hell of a lot more than vote to resist fascism. And I'll fight the notion that citizens at large are the problem. It's a cynical outlook that serves to individualize the responsibility for a systematic disaster. Our country was built to make this possible after all. And I sure as hell know I don't plan on giving up if Trump clinches the presidency. Kind of morbidly curious about how much of an incompetent clusterfuck Project 2025's implementation would be.
Victory or no, fascists are paper tigers and I plan on sticking around to remind them of that fact however I can.
When the shit starts, America, don't forget he told you exactly what he was going to do. You voted for what's coming.
I guess we can only hope that the leopards absolutely massacre those who gave him this power. Democracy will fall all over the world because of this, and his groupies won't have a pot to piss in once his “concepts” are put into action.
A guy who makes $58 billion per year (from one job) told people they would experience hardships and they voted for it.
They voted for a guy who said he would put immigrants in camps with immigrants in their family trees and in their fields.
.They voted for a guy who has said he would put the health of others under the umbrella of a famous-named anti-vaxxer born one year before the polio vaccine was developed in his own country.
Issue is he is going for the people that didn't vote for him first.
I didn’t that’s for damn sure so don’t lump everyone in one group. That’s just as ignorant as the trumpers!
Oh they'll blame Democrats and the American people will believe them and vote trump back in.
8 PM Eastern / 5 PM Pacific
Puerto Rico - Nonbinding - Harris win.
United States Virgin Islands - Not voting.
(D 7 EC Votes) Connecticut - Called For Harris
(D 3) Delaware - Called For Harris
(D 3) District of Columbia - Called For Harris
(D 4) Maine - Called For Harris
(D 10) Maryland - Called For Harris
(D 11) Massachusetts - Called For Harris
(D 4) New Hampshire - Called For Harris
(D 14) New Jersey - Called For Harris
(D 28) New York - Called For Harris
(D 4) Rhode Island - Called For Harris
(D 3) Vermont - Called For Harris
(D 13) Virginia - Called For Harris
(R 30) Florida - Called For Trump
(BG 16) Georgia - Called For Trump
(R 11) Indiana - Called for Trump
(R 8) Kentucky - Called for Trump
(BG 15) Michigan - Called For Trump
(BG 16) North Carolina - Called For Trump
(R 17) Ohio - Called For Trump
(BG 19) Pennsylvania - Called For Trump
(R 9) South Carolina - Called For Trump
(R 11) Tennessee - Called For Trump
(R 4) West Virginia - Called for Trump
I knew Americans were questionable people, but I didn't imagine they would be this shitty. Jesus.
Very handy, thank you!
I think I need to stop following this at this point. I wish everyone the best.
Yeah. Going offline for a bit.
+1 cat lady vote in Michigan!
(And I got their last cat sticker)
that looks like something you'd see in a museum
Only if we win. If we lose, the museums of the future will all be about Elon Musk.
So much for that Iowa poll.
Knew that poll was a flaming pile of horseshit the moment it came out. Lady got lucky a few cycles in a row.
Called it. It was ONE poll flying in the face of all the others.
SCOTUS is gone for 40 years.
Death clock started for the New Deal.
It's game over if Michigan falls to Trump. Good job being mealy mouthed about genocide. We can't upset AIPAC can we?
Gaza is definitely gone now. China probably moves on Taiwan. Ukraine is finished.
It's going to boil down to
VA, PA, MI, WI, MN. A Trump win in any of them puts him over the top. Harris has to take allfivefour. VA just got called for Harris. 1 down, 4 to go.MSNBC called PA for Trump, that's it. It's over.
But the "Anti-Genocide" vote in Michigan is not significant.
Donald Trump 47,322,739 votes (52.5%)
Kamala Harris 41,760,788 votes (46.3%)
Jill Stein 334,826 votes (0.4%)
Chase Oliver 334,504 votes (0.4%)
Robert Kennedy 291,829 votes (0.3%)
Other candidates 160,156 votes (0.2%)
Harris is down 6 million. The other protest votes are 10% of that.
When the "anti-genocide" people accelerated and intensified the outcome of the existing genocide by protest voting for spoiler candidates it is really hard to muster any sympathy.
Sometimes you have to be willing to play politics in order to win at politics. Purity testing doesn't count for shit when the opposition is literally in favor of enslaving the entire human race for sport.
Way to go! You really showed the lesser of two evils who's boss, while the ultra-nationalist psycopaths erradicate millions more innocent people. Nice fucking job 👏
the county trends in swing states compared to 2020 are extremely discouraging.
I think that Harris will take Michigan (Go Blue! literally), but I'm really afraid that it won't matter.
Just listened to Selzer break down her methodology in clear, simple terms. I'm starting to think the polling error this cycle is pretty big, and Harris is going to win handily.
God I hope so... The #1 problem with polling has been trying to determine who is or is not a "likely voter".
We're seeing that in PA. 22 recent polls, 18 "Likely Voter" polls, meanwhile 100,000 new voters casting ballots early. New voters aren't counted as "likely".
I've been thinking about this too.
I've heard a lot of commentary about how polling has addressed the shortcomings of recent election cycles and that its more or less all fixed now. I do wonder though, there seems to be a heap of things that are very difficult to account for.
For example, who's actually going to vote vs just intending to vote. For example the garbage thing has motivated a lot of people to get it done.
Another is the late break. I think for a lot of people that just don't pay attention to politics, if you ask them 2 weeks ago they just haven't really thought about it - their answers are precooked from last cycle. As the big day comes around and people think about candidates, lots of traditional republicans voters will make a different choice.
Also just generally with polls is the type of person that actually completes polls. Most people ain't got time for that.
Of course I understand pollsters try to control for these things but as these problems stack up its easy to see how there can be some surprises.
Whoever ran the Harris campaign on Reddit deserves their salary. That was an amazing echo chamber that had me fooled. I was expecting a blue wave better than Biden 2020. Too bad it doesn't translate into the election.
Trump always overperforms. Even in 2020 he did better than he had any right to. This time there is no covid hanging over his head and Biden/Harris are taking all the blame for inflation.
It also does not hurt that millions of Americans willingly consume hours of right wing propaganda everyday. Fox News remains one of if not the top cable channel (after sports) and Joe Rogan one of the top podcasts. Meanwhile CNN has shifted right, papers like the Washington post have been compromised, and the remaining “liberal media” is so obsessed with appearing unbiased that they end up “sane washing” GOP craziness and inflating minor democrat flubs.
Biden 2020 was a nail-biter of a win and thus far I don't think any of the states he won have been called for Trump. But there being no surprises in the blue direction is not very comforting even if Harris does pull it out.
Double standard. Trump wins 2016 and it's 4chan and reddit won it for him. Democrats finally get a clue 8 years later an start using social media but this time it doesn't factor.
It was the same here. Moderation in this sub (to a lessor extent) and other subs (world, news, political_memes), cultivated a garden, through bans, to echo back to themselves the world as they expected to see it. Lemmy is just as knee-jerk delusional in its bans/ down votes as reddit. Dissent gets ignored and down voted. Facts are down voted. Legitimate criticisms are down-voted. All, down-voted into oblivion, because people want a comfortable lie more than an inconvenient truth.
You picked up the wrong message if you think grandstanding about Palestine was going to have any effect on this election at all. A significant portion of this country has fallen to fascism already. We got a lot bigger problems to deal with than the protest vote about Gaza. This country is now a vassal state of Russia, and US hegemony has fallen to the same unitarian kleptocracy that defines the collectivist Eastern Bloc. Figure it the fuck out. War is coming. Decide which side you're gonna be on Komrade, or it will be decided for you.
I did my part. You all need to get out and vote if you havent already.
I'm a little pissed off that our Election Officials were allowing Trump voters to wear hats and shirts while they were voting. But I guess they didn't want to chance the risk of these violent fuckers fucking up the voting.
That's electioneering and not allowed.
they've already been assaulting poll workers who asked them to remove their political stuff for voting.
Remember, for some reason, society bends over backwards to make sure conservatives don't get held to the same standard as everyone else.
Trump being the best example. Democrat who did one of the things he did would have long since been in jail.
Harris has ONE path to victory, ONE.
She has to win PA, MI, WI, MN.
Losing any one of those 4 states ends it.
MSNBC just called PA for Trump. That's it, it's over!
PA alone is 90% reporting with Trump leading in all but 7 districts and having nearly 3.4% more votes. Nothing is finalized, but if that sample is indicative of the overall votes (which by the law of large numbers, 6 million samples is probably accurate), he takes it.
I hate to say it, but Harris would need a miracle to win that state, let alone the other three.
Fox just called PA for Trump.
I'm waiting for the AP to call it, but yeah—it's looking extremely bleak.
Uff that’s grim.
Remember; most mail ins are democrat. If it looks bad that's because we are not close to done.
I am on edge and dooming. If Trump wins it's all over. I'll likely literally die.
Get your favourite show on netflix and watch that. No point in giving yourself mini heart attacks every time a county with 15 farmer’s ballots get counted.
My despair is through the roof right now. What a mess.
I quite literally think I might have half a diazepam to get me through the next 6 hours or so.
Go over to Reddit if you want to have a nervous breakdown. It's a complete shitshow over there at the moment.
I don't get it. There haven't been any surprises yet.
Pretty much every state is following as expected. Its going to be super close and come down to PA, MI, and WI.
I'm losing my ability to give a fuck at this point. Everything short of large scale civil unrest or political revolution is basically business as usual. Whatever happens I'm sure we'll fucking deserve it.
If you're looking at which states have been called then there may not be any surprises, but things like the NYT needle are following trends in states which are yet to be called.
Republican counties, with their fewer number of citizens, always report first. Rural areas are easier to count. Democrat counties, which tend to be urban, have far larger numbers and report later.
The trend doesn't matter on election day. Republicans always get the first wave, then Democrats catch up later. The question is how many urban areas are remaining in each state?
Answer: Lots for VA and NC. That's why AP hasn't called. Ignore the websites or newspapers that try to give you truth before the urban centers (with massive populations) dramatically shift the vote around.
the problem is trump is over performing in those counties relative to 2020.
The NYT needle for the popular vote is currently leaning toward Trump, what the fuck is going on? lol
https://i.imgur.com/n7IYQxh.png
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-06/us-presidential-election-live-updates-kamala-harris-donald-trump/104546228?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web#live-blog-post-132409
This clip talks through the swings towards Trump in a bunch of demographics. It's just bizarre.
For example college educated women have swung towards trump. What the fuck.
We still got mid terms and we still got 2028. And if it comes to it we still got violence
Last election it 100% looked like Trump was going to win until the mail in dam broke.
Are most mail in ballots democrat this year? I thought republicans were pushing that more with their base. But I don't know if they actually did it or if they voted more in person.
“It looks like we have a very substantial lead,” said Trump after 6 votes were counted indicating a 3-3 tie.
https://apnews.com/live/trump-harris-election-updates-11-5-2024
A 3-3 tie where there were zero registered democrats (2 undeclared and 4 registered Republicans), meaning at best both undeclared and at least one registered Republican voted for Harris. At worst it means at least 3 registered Republicans voted for Harris.
They all voted for Haley in the primaries and voted Joe Biden in 2020. So they are “new england republicans” not “trump republicans” ahah.
NYT got me dooming. I think it’s time to pop a xanax and pretend everything is going to be okay while falling asleep.
MSNBC just called Pennsylvania for Trump. Good night everybody!
Thanks for running the thread, appreciate it 🙏
Thanks! I'm exhausted!
Fuck. Fuck fuck fuck.
o7
I have to say that the wording here feels oddly suspect. I have never gotten a sticker that said anything other than "I voted!" and it really concerns me about the subtle messaging here. I tried to make a separate post about it, but image posts aren't allowed apparently.
God Republicans are such douchebags...
https://www.atlantamagazine.com/news-culture-articles/why-do-georgias-voting-stickers-now-say-i-secured-my-vote/
No real answers, but it's interesting
Wow.
With NC Called for Trump tonight, its time for us all to take a rest and sleep. NC was the early decision point. We all expected it to go Trump, but if it went Kamala then Trump basically lost.
Now that Trump is confirmed to win NC, its a long road until PA is called. And Kamala needs to win PA, MI, and WI all together. No point stressing about it now, just sleep and you'll know tomorrow morning for two of those three. And wait until Friday before PA is called (or later, if its really really close).
Staying up a bit longer to see how AZ goes is interesting but likely not too important anymore.
the county trends in PA WI and MI compared to 2020 are looking bad. don't get your hopes up.
Trying not to conclude this is over but... man. This is looking really over.
Trump is up 3,000,000 in the popular vote in reported precincts. That trend will not hold. Harris will flip that and then some.
Unfortunately popular votes or the lack thereof don’t decide the election for either side.
That's true but I think this statement is an indicator that this point in time was always going to be the gloomiest.
Exactly. Trump always looks strongest early on. He looked like he had beaten Biden on the early counts. Blue votes get counted later.
NYT predicts a 0.5% Harris popular vote win based on model with current data. Hopefully it’ll be more.
If you're feeling stressed out about all of this, imagine what it must feel like to be Trump. He's either about to go on the biggest power trip anyone has ever gone on ever, or he's going to go to prison where he'll probably die.
He’s a narcissist. He doesn’t believe he will ever actually experience any consequences. He is incapable.
Narcissistic mortification is "the primitive terror of self dissolution, triggered by the sudden exposure of one's sense of a defective self ... it is death by embarrassment".
When narcissistic mortification is experienced for the first time, it may be defined as a sudden loss of control over external or internal reality, or both. This produces strong emotions of terror while at the same time narcissistic libido (also known as ego-libido) or destrudo is built up. Narcissistic libido or ego-libido is the concentration of libido on the self. Destrudo is the opposite of libido and is the impulse to destroy oneself and everything associated with oneself.
I'm hoping for this outcome personally...🤞
Someone's an optimist!
9 PM Eastern / 6 PM Pacific
(R 9 EC Votes) Alabama - Called For Trump
(R 6) Arkansas - Called For Trump
(R 6) Iowa - Called For Trump
(R 6) Kansas - Called For Trump
(R 8) Louisiana - Called For Trump
(R 6) Mississippi - Called For Trump
(R 10) Missouri - Called For Trump
(R 5) Nebraska - Called For Trump
(R 3) North Dakota - Called For Trump
(R 7) Oklahoma - Called For Trump
(R 3) South Dakota - Called For Trump
(R 40) Texas - Called For Trump
(BG 10) Wisconsin - Called For Trump
(D 19) Illinois - Called For Harris
(D 10) Minnesota - Called For Harris
82,000,000 people voted early. It’s ridiculous that the race doesn’t start with those votes counted and reported.
Counting before polls close would influence voting. Even if it were "secret" you could publish fake leaks. It would devolve into a shit show of misinformation, even though we do have that already.
Yeah but people definitely get influenced by the media reporting and the red states with earlier closing polls, it makes it seem like Trumps winning but it’s a toss up. A toss up is easy to influence if all you show is one side getting more electoral votes.
Well…all the battleground states that are most important and basically decide the election are all “leaning trump” or “most likely trump.” Like…literally almost all of them.
True but you have to start counting sooner or later. I guess you could wait until the last ballot is cast in the last state.
it is not looking good. i guess we in central europe better start learning russian 😔
Their tech team is on strike so theres that at least...
Howdy, folks. First time doom scrolling? Enjoy the ride. I'm going to go work out and come back later
2 AM Eastern / 11 PM Pacific
(D - 4 EC votes) Hawaii - Called For Harris
Georgia not looking great. Sorry friends I think we're cooked.
Georgia only voted Blue once since 1996, it was never going to happen.
Fucking Dixville. You guys had no problem voting for Biden, but half can't vote for the colored lady. That's a bridge too far.
4 Republicans and 2 Undecideds.
Wow. Actually, the fact that Harris won three from a crowd like that is pretty cool.
GröpenFührer said he's going to use the military against the US citizens.
That alone from all the crazy shit he's said should result in an immediate 6-0 vote for Harris.
Leaving this here as a refresher for today...
https://theintercept.com/2015/07/30/jimmy-carter-u-s-oligarchy-unlimited-political-bribery/
God this hurts to watch right now. There's too many data points to comprehend but too few for commentators to tell me the trend.
So far, no real surprises.
Just gonna put all my stuff under this comment so I don't spam this thread.
The Australian Broadcasting Commission's live blog is pretty great:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-06/us-presidential-election-live-updates-kamala-harris-donald-trump/104546228
More women fewer men
Also younger voters:
Predictably, musk is pushing the "voter fraud in pensylvania" narrative.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-06/us-presidential-election-live-updates-kamala-harris-donald-trump/104546228?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web#live-blog-post-132301
The ABC's map is pretty good (live map):
link
6 AM Eastern / 3 AM Pacific:
Guam - Harris 49.46% vs. Trump 46.22%
Northern Mariana Islands - Not voting for President.
https://www.guampdn.com/news/guam-picks-harris-over-trump-in-non-binding-presidential-straw-poll/article_657b06b8-9b97-11ef-9896-1302c4e2ebe9.html
Source for NMI not voting for President.
https://www.abc.net.au/pacific/programs/pacificbeat/pacific-beat/104547042
1 - 2 AM Eastern / 10 - 11 PM Pacific
(R 3 EC Votes) Alaska - Called For Trump
Fuck.
Thanks so much for doing this Jordan. You’re very appreciated!
11 PM Eastern / 8 PM Pacific
(D 54 EC Votes) California - Called For Harris
(D 12) Washington - Called For Harris
10 PM Eastern / 7 PM Pacific
(BG 11 EC Votes) Arizona - Called for Trump
(BG 6) Nevada - Called For Trump
(R 4) Idaho - Called For Trump
(R 4) Montana - Called For Trump
(D 6) Utah - Called For Trump
(R 3) Wyoming - Called For Trump
(D 10) Colorado - Called For Harris
(D 5) New Mexico - Called For Harris
(D 8) Oregon - Called For Harris
this ain't happening folks. fuck.
Why da fk is CNN just totalling all the red states as if Donald Trump is winning right now? 😑😑
It excites conservative viewers and makes liberal viewers angry, and CNN only cares about people staying glued to their coverage.
It is the equivalent of rage bait.
NBC is doing that too. They called a bunch of Trump States the second polls closed, but are pretending new York is still up in the air.
There's no excuse this time around. People know exactly who Trump is, and they have voted for him a second time.
I don't have much to say. I feel a mix of anger and disappointment.
Hopefully the Dems will be able to pick someone better to lead the party four years from now... I wonder what the world will look like four years from now.
If there is a country 4 years from now.
We've decided, as a country, that the Supreme Court doesn't matter, women's rights don't matter, human rights don't matter.
The only thing that matters is Trump and whatever serves Trump.
I'm in Canada and anxiously following this dumb election ... mostly because I have to because whoever wins will affect my life too.
This is like watching my neighbours standing outside their burning house and having an argument about which fire department they should call ..... while the house fire grows in size. And the choices of fire departments is a regular fire department or the other department which is a bunch of guys in a half ton truck with buckets of water.
More like a bunch of guys actively pouring fuel on the fire while calling fire itself a "liberal hoax".
The broadcaster in Canada interviewed a young Trump supporter woman. She said all the abortion fears are made up. And that abortion isn't real healthcare.
My favorite take on this comes from James Carville:
"I'm gonna sleep soundly tonight. Have a couple of bourbons, maybe a gummy or two, but yeah. Gonna sleep soundly tonight on her chances to win this thing."
Shit.
So uh.. what's the right attitude to deal with this assuming we get a Trump? And I mean personally. I lean towards absurdism.
Stoicism.
Thanks, this is good advice.
I disagree. Stoicism at its worst may lead to resignation. Absurdism encourages defying the meaninglessness of existence in large part by recognizing meaning is made.
In the face of a cold, uncaring existence, absurdism or existentialism are two great philosophies to employ to reimagine how we want to be in the world and how we want the world to be compared to stoicism, which would reach its limits with and within reason. Absurdism recognizes reason's limits and realizes one needs more than reason alone to persist.
Go to the Winchester, have a pint, and wait for all of this to blow over
Man you go out, chill a bit and get the best icecream You can get
Republicans are at 51 Senate seats at the moment according to New York Times.
NBC calling the Senate flip.
The Senate™ is always flipping
Yup. Flipped WV and OH, both pretty much expected.
Possibly will flip MT and hold NE as well.
3 AM Eastern / 12 Midnight Pacific
American Samoa -
Updates from AP's decision desk:
Virginia:
North Carolina:
Here we go! Last run through the polls before the election!
Arizona - Trump +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada - Trump +1 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
Georgia - Toss-Up - Trump +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
North Carolina - Trump +2 to +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Pennsylvania - Toss-Up Harris +1/+2 to Trump +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan - Toss-Up Tie, Harris +1 to Trump +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin - Toss-Up, Harris +1/+3 to Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Plotted on the map:
Advantage is with Trump in this scenario.
Assuming he takes Georgia, 2020 was an anomaly in my mind, GA has gone Republican in every other election since 1996, that gives Trump 264.
Which means if Harris loses ANY other state, she's done. She has to sweep PA, MI and WI to hit 274.
If the disaffected Arab vote in MI is enough to flip it, plus a Trump win in Georgia, that puts him at 279 to Harris 259. A scarily likely scenario.
Honestly, with all the news showing how poll herding has been happening, I think it's quite likely she sweeps the swing states. I'm less nervous now than I was a few days ago.
people voting for harris are far less likely to answer random phonecalls or follow random links to do polling.
It's possible some other unexpected state goes Harris, no?
Anything is POSSIBLE. One poll shows Harris up in IOWA of all places, but just the one poll.
Selzer is probably the most repected polster out there.
Though a Trump win in Iowa is well within her Margin of error.
AP decision desk update for Michigan:
Ra Ra Wish Putin.
You sure showed those immigrants.
Edit: it rhymes in American voter
Edit edit: Oh wow Cruz is back too, he can go tell them in person.
The bragging is going to make this so much worse.
I'm a sucker for punishment and have been reading some of it. Here's a tiny sampling of Reddit:
I want ro kill myself already
The only good thing that's going to come from this is getting to say "I told you so" to these people when they can't afford anything anymore. Petty and it'll suck, but we're going to have to take what we can get.
Apparently, FOX called WI for Trump. That puts their estimates at him for the win, passing 270.
On a related note, MAGAs on social media are gloating and "owning the libs" like jackasses, as expected.
There is a somewhat close battle in Texas over the electoral college
I know it’s too early to tell but Tx being blue is making me so hard 😂
It’s leaning red again, but only 11% reporting, so it’s still too early.
Unfortunately (but probably not surprisingly) AP just called Texas for Trump.
It’s a good sign! Hopefully not a blue mirage.
The final hours before the shit show. Let's go!!
When you should know
"Near-complete election results are expected from Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan on Tuesday night, but only partial results from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona, Harris-Walz campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon told reporters in a Monday afternoon briefing,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Dillon predicted additional results from Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be available earlier in the day Wednesday, with Arizona and Nevada trickling in the rest of the week.”
Said Dillon: “We’re going to continue to see new votes being reported for many days after Election Day. We believe this race is going to be incredibly close, so we may not know the results of this election for several days.”
Alright seppos time to get that vote out cunts.
I’m working in a pretty much outside information-free environment until almost 11pm tonight. Really glad to not have a window seat to this rollercoaster. Cast my vote early, so my duty is done.
Anyone got ten bucks right now on Trump declaring victory in the next 2 hours (from 6:21 pacific time) and saying everything after that is stolen?
Yeah I think that's the plan. IDK enough about states & timezones to say exactly when but surely we're approaching that time.
Boris Johnson and Stormy Daniels on Channel 4 (uk)!
We never should have killed that gorilla…
I sometimes wonder what I did to end up on this side of the post harambe split.
The guy that played Logan Roy really hates Trump.
George Santos. Not pictured Michael Cohen.
That's Brian Fucking Cox thank you very much.
Friends, it looks like North Carolina (along with Georgia) is lost, this means Harris needs to win Pennsylvania (+ Winsconsin and Michigan) or it’s over.
Found this Australian site that's covering the election from over on MetaFilter, they've definitely got the best laid out map I've seen tonight.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-06/us-election-2024-live-results-electoral-map-who-is-winning/104514296
This guy civs
Y'all are doomscrolling and there is like 80 million votes to count yet in mail ballots, sheesh
People are doom scrolling because The NY Times model has Trump at 90% likelihood, and Nate Silver thinks they probably have the best model right now.
270towin called it for Trump.
Florida looking bad.
Yeh, but Florida always looks bad
Any ideas what might be the best way to observe this shit show unfold if your not in the US?
... other than here I mean.
Edit: for those wondering the time zones are:
Pacific: UTC -8:00 Eastern: UTC -5:00
ABC News live on YouTube.
I'm watching the live streams on CNN and MSNBC, I'm assuming those are available internationally through their websites.
NYT, as of 10:40 p.m. Eastern US. 😬
So disgusting
Fucking fuck. This shit is way too god-damned close. How are so many of my fellow countrymen this god-damned retarded?‽
CLOSE??? Trump won, friend. It's over. It's lost
What a year it's been here in the politics channel. I'm still here. Exhausted.
I will be voting tomorrow in person at my polling place before work.
Good for you! We just got the email at work "Hey, do your civic duty, if you need time off to vote, ask your manager."
Of course, I'm vote by mail, ballot's been in since 10/24.
Thank you for your service!
Any predictions on what musk / xitter's role in all this will be?
They can basically call states for republicans early.
Musk will likely be promoting anything claiming a Trump win, but I don't think X has their own election coverage, do they?
That's kind of what I mean. They don't have their own formal coverage, but they can manipulate the prevalence of different narratives.
If officials refuse to certify whatever states, having the perceived support of the public can make all the difference.
He's funding Trump, and Trump will change laws to benefit him.
A higher minimum wage by Harris isn't good for him
Well good night folks. I hope blue wall results trickle in over the night paint a more positive picture.
Because the picture uptill now, especially considering many ballots counted during the day were prioritised EV or vote by mail ballots, is looking pretty grim.
Would be helpful if the megapost showed the current overall standing. Or am I missing something?
Yup, that's the plan once results start rolling in tomorrow! I just wanted to have all the structure in place first!
Good news for pollsters. They weren't so wrong after all.
Although I think Harris will win she probably has 55-45 odds, this following map is the most likely electoral college outcome in my homemade dataanalysis model
https://presidentialpickem.com/share-bracket/16ead2df-6737-4704-86d4-6f606d6e6a07 This map happens in about 15% of simulations.
Appreciate you putting this together!
He's really sucking elon's dick right now with that rambling story wtf
First results are in. 3 for Harris and 3 for Trump in Dixville Notch.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/election-day-officially-begins-harris-trump-tie-dixville/story?id=115504033
Harris is on track to lose the entire Rustbelt, the entire sunbelt.
Evil comes in orange.